Return to Reality

We had a brief unexpected thundershower around 7:30 last night, with a lot of wind, thunder, and lightning. We only received .06 of an inch of rain, but it was fun to watch. Yesterday’s high was 79.2°, and the low was 43°.  We had a high today at midnight of 63°, and temperatures have fallen to 54° at 6 am.

The warm spell is over for the time being. It will feel more fall-like through the weekend with highs only around 60. Our next chance of widespread rain is late Thursday night into Friday morning. Warmer temperatures in the 70s make a comeback next week as we continue our rollercoaster ride.

Weather History

1955: A cold front moving into warm and humid air results in severe thunderstorms across southwest Lower Michigan. High winds and hail caused considerable damage to windows, roofs, automobiles, and trees as a severe storm passed about 15 miles south of Grand Rapids.

1959: A tornado struck near Evart in Osceola County around 4 PM, with only minor tree damage.

1963: Michigan is in the midst of a spell of record-warm weather. Lansing reaches 80 degrees or higher on five consecutive days from the 22nd to the 26th.

On October 23, 2020, a line of strong to severe storms tracked across Southeast Michigan, resulting in numerous wind damage and a few 1-inch hail reports. The hardest hit areas were around Elkton and Kinde in the Thumb, where a bowing segment caused damage to several structures and numerous trees and resulted in widespread power outages.

On October 23, 1951, 1.94 inches of precipitation fell in Flint. This is the record for the greatest amount of precipitation for the month of October in Flint.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Lingering clouds and a chance of showers North today

Band of showers and isolated storms that moved through last evening
with the weakening upper wave has moved entirely east of the area
this morning. This system overachieved a little bit compared to
expectations with a little thunder/lightning activity.

Our attention now turns to the cold front and strong upper wave
approaching quickly from the W/NW this morning. The sfc front as of
07z this morning is still over Central Wisconsin. The front is
hardly noticeable aside from the sfc observations showing winds
going from WSW to NW. There is no rain to speak of with the front
south of Green Bay. The short wave coming in is fairly robust from a
forcing standpoint. However, sfc dew points in the 40s are just not
enough to produce much rain in this scenario. Cloud bases 7k+ ft are
indicative of the drier lower levels.

What is expected to happen is that cold pool stratocumulus clouds
will move in for at least the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area
behind the cold front for a good chunk of the day. Further north
under the colder air aloft and better forcing, a few showers may get
squeezed out of the clouds. Temperatures are likely at their warmest
point for today. We will lose a few degrees with the cold front
passage, and then struggle to warm up much with ongoing Cold Air
Advection.

We will see the upper system exit by tonight, taking with it all of
the clouds and precipitation. Skies should clear out, and winds will
go light with high pressure settling in. This cooler and drier
weather will hold into Thursday, with only some high clouds coming
in later on Thursday in advance of the next cold front that will
move through.

- Showers and Storms Late Thursday Night/Friday Morning

The next shortwave and cold front within progressive fall pattern
has a bit more moisture to work with than the one coming through
this morning. Decent agreement in timing of the rain and possible
tstms arriving after 06Z Friday then exiting after 18Z friday. NBM
PoPs are 60 to 80 pct during this time frame with QPF of around one
quarter inch. The cold advection behind the front Friday afternoon
should support lingering strato-cu clouds and a few light showers.

- Dry Weekend with Seasonal Temps then Another Warm Up

The weekend continues to look dry and mostly sunny with seasonal
temperatures (highs 55 to 60 and lows in the 30s) as high pressure
impacts the region. The coldest night will be Saturday night when
the sfc high is overhead and widespread freezing temps are possible.

After the high pulls away and the southerly return flow becomes
established another significant warmup remains likely for early next
week. After highs in the 60s on Monday we should see highs of 70 to
75 for next Tuesday/Wednesday. There is little spread in ensemble
temp guidance (especially Tuesday) so confidence is fairly high in
these warm readings.