Yesterday we had a high temperature of 75° and a low of 35°.
We have been spoiled over the past week and for most of the month in SW Michigan with lots of sunny dry conditions. With the exception of Wednesday this week will produce much of the same. Increasing clouds are expected on Tuesday ahead of a cold front—chances for rain creep into the forecast for Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday. The highest rain chances (30-50 pct) occur on Wednesday. Highs today through Tuesday will be in the 70s. Behind the cold front on Wed/Thu, it will be colder.
Weather History
1992: One to three inches of snow blankets southwest Lower Michigan at the culmination of three days of wintry weather with lows around 30 degrees and highs in the lower 40s.
On October 20, 2011, a deep low pressure tracked through Detroit and led to strong northeast winds gusting to 60 mph in and around Saginaw Bay. The winds started during the evening hours of the 19th and continued through the overnight hours of the 20th. The prolonged nature of the very strong northeast winds pushed water from the Bay into the area rivers and streams including the Kawkawlin and Saginaw Rivers. Some low-lying park areas were flooded in Bay County. Numerous trees and large branches were brought down across the northern Thumb and Tri-Cities regions, leading to power outages.
Also on October 20, 1972, a two-day cold steak ended with record lows in Detroit on the 19th, 22 degrees, and on the 20th, 19 degrees.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Fair weather with moderating temps in the near term Increasingly strong south to southwesterly flow warm air advection will continue today through Monday as the pressure gradient strengthens with the sfc ridge anchored over the TN valley region. Large diurnal temp swings will continue with the dry airmass in place. High temps will reach the low to mid 70s today with mostly clear skies once again. It will be even milder Monday as high temps reach the mid to upper 70s across most of our area in a persistent south to sw flow waa regime. - Small chances for rain remain Tuesday night into Wednesday Models each night seem to back off a bit in extent and magnitude of precipitation during the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame. Tonight`s model runs continue that theme. At one point it looked like Tuesday would have rain as well, that was backed off from and now most of Tuesday night even looks to be dry. The main issue is moisture return, or the lack there of. A large surface high pressure area is situated across the Southeast U.S. and this effectively cuts off Gulf of Mexico inflow into the system. Therefore, the shortwave trough that moves in Tuesday night has little in the way of moisture to work with. A stronger northern stream wave dives in from the northwest for Wednesday driving a surface cold front southeast through the area early in the day. Our precipitation chances for the 7 day forecast really come down to this front. Models have very limited rainfall through this time frame and WPC agrees. 1-5 day QPF from WPC is a trace to a tenth of an inch. We have backed off our likely pops (60 pct) from last night more to chance now (30-50 pct). Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected in the Wednesday night through Saturday time frame as cold high pressure slides through the area. Another front approaches from the west on Saturday, but most models keep us dry through Saturday evening. - Above normal temperatures Tuesday...then colder for Wed/Thurs Warm air remains in place on Tuesday with 850mb temperatures holding in the lower teens C. Highs Tuesday will likely be in the 70s. 850mb temperatures plunge into Wednesday with -2C to -4C air in place Wednesday night overhead. This will result in lows Wednesday night in the 30s and highs on Thursday only rebounding into the 50s. Warmer air slides back in from the west on Friday and Saturday resulting in highs warming back to at least near 60. For perspective, normal highs this time of year are in the 50s for the most part.
Yesterday was yet another warm, sunny mid fall day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 70/38 there was no rainfall and the sun was out 100% of the time. For today the average H/L is 59/41 the record high of 83 was set in 1953 the coldest high of 36 was set in 1930. The record low of 22 was set in 1952 and 1974 the warmest low of 65 was set in 1920 the most rainfall of 1.11” fell in 1916 the most snowfall of 2.2” fell in 1992. Last year the H/L was 54/44.
Slim