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Record Warmth – The Michigan Weather Center
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Record Warmth

We are closing out the month of October with record warmth. Yesterday, it was 81° down here in the woods near the Kalamazoo River, and yesterday’s low was 53°.  We have 67° this morning at 6 am.

Winds will gust over 30 miles an hour again today with highs in the 70s. A cold front will approach from the west tonight bringing rain that will last into Thursday. Halloween will see rain showers tapering off in the evening and temperatures tumbling through the 50s bringing us back to the reality of normality.

Take a look at the records that were set on Tuesday. The record set in Muskegon was last set in 1896!

 

For those who like the warmth, the forecast for today looks to be a treat instead of a trick. We will be coming close to or breaking several high and warmest low-temperature records today!


Wind Advisory

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Allegan, Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana, and Mason Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Weather History

1988: Record cold temperatures in the teens and lower 20s close out the month. The low of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids on this day ties the record for the coldest ever recorded in October.

On October 30, 2012, Hurricane Sandy merged with a system over the eastern United States to produce a large extratropical system capable of producing widespread strong winds across much of the northeast U.S., including Southeast Michigan. Strong northerly winds gusted to 75 mph, hurricane force, at Port Huron and to 65 mph at Port Sanilac. Elsewhere, widespread wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph led to downed power lines and minor property damage.

Also on October 30, 2004, a strong low-pressure system tracked through Lake Superior led to high winds during the afternoon hours. Wind gusts of 60 mph lead to widespread power outages, downed trees and wires, along with some minor property damage throughout all of southeast Michigan. Utility companies reported power outages to 283,000 customers across lower Michigan, with at least half that total coming from southeast Michigan, where damage was estimated to be 3.5 million dollars

Also on October 30, 1966, the overnight temperature dropped to a freezing 19 degrees in Flint. This ties with October 21, 1974, for the record minimum temperature for the month of October in Flint.


Forecast Discussion

- Breezy and Near Record Warm Wednesday

Conditions today will be quite similar to yesterday, with 925 mb
temperatures later this morning forecast to be almost the same as 24
hr ago, and weak mixing from the surface into the bottom of a strong
low-level jet bringing down 30 to 40 mph wind gusts, and up to 45
mph gusts near the lakeshore. Record warm low temperatures for the
calendar day Oct 30 are likely, and a couple stations could also
reach record highs (see Climate section below). NBM high temps did
pretty well yesterday and are just a degree or two cooler for today.
Somewhat thicker cirrus and patches of altocumulus may filter the
sunshine a bit more than yesterday.

Peak wind gusts yesterday came in short of the HREF mean, though at
or above the HREF minimum, and daytime gusts in the belt several
miles downwind of the lakeshore were generally topped out in the
lower 40s mph. Without much difference in overall wx conditions
today, would expect at least the HREF minimum gusts to verify. The
gust progs for Wednesday have consistently been a few mph higher
than Tuesday, so another Wind Advisory for 45 mph gusts in the same
area seems prudent since it appears to be less of a marginal call
this time around. But overall, similar lower-end impacts are
expected on this near carbon copy of a day, mostly affecting those
Halloween decorations plus a smattering of isolated power outages.
Winds are expected to gradually relax slightly during the mid-late
afternoon.

- Active and Changeable Weather on Thursday, Blustery and Cooling
Down During Trick-or-Treating

Low pressure center will track from Wisconsin to northern Michigan
on Thursday. Prefrontal elevated showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorm cells are expected to move in during the early morning
before to just after daybreak, and these should act to cool the
surface temperatures slightly in the morning and bring down some
gustier winds.

In the showers` wake later in the morning, temperatures will remain
mild, in the 60s, with variable winds that may temporarily go light.

The synoptic cold front is then slated to come through early-mid
afternoon. Any surface-based convection forced by the cold front is
likely to be low-topped and may not be high/cold enough for thunder.
40 knot winds will still be present not far above the surface, so
some of these may mix down as gusts. Total rainfall for the day
should be around a quarter inch, but there may be locally higher
amounts.

Behind the front, during trick or treating, temperatures should drop
into the 50s. Precipitation should not be much of a factor with just
a chance of drizzle. Winds will be a challenge in the cold air
advection, with 35 to 40 mph gusts favored.

- Wetter Pattern Setting up for Next Week

The trick or treating forecast for Thursday evening is coming into
view and it appears the steadier rain associated with the warm
conveyor belt will have moved east with a dry slot across Lower
Michigan. There may be drizzle or some light lake enhanced showers
in cyclonic flow but NBM categorical POPs appear to be overdone and
were lowered to chance and slight chance.

Surface high builds in with dry and cool weather for the end of the
week. Then return flow moisture increases late in the weekend with
warm air advection/isentropic ascent bringing increases chances of
rain Sunday night into Monday.

Rain chances increase even more as western CONUS upper troughing
ejects northeast with sfc low pressure moving from the Southern
Plains on Tuesday. Gulf inflow into this circulation should bring
steady, heavier rains Monday night into Tuesday.

.CLIMATE...

- UPDATED October 29 New Record Highs Set:
Grand Rapids...79... Old 77 (1901)
Lansing........77... Old 76 (1999)
Muskegon.......76... Old 74 (1896)
Holland........79... Old 76 (1922, 1999)
Kalamazoo......80... Old 77 (1999)
Battle Creek...79... Old 77 (1999)

- October 30 Record Warm Lows:
Grand Rapids...58 (1901, 1974)
Lansing........59 (1974)
Muskegon.......59 (1901)
Holland........57 (1946, 1999)
Kalamazoo......63 (1946)
Battle Creek...59 (1900)

- October 30 Record Highs:
Grand Rapids...79 (1950)
Lansing........77 (1950, 1971)
Muskegon.......75 (1971)
Holland........77 (1948, 1971)
Kalamazoo......82 (1950)
Battle Creek...78 (1950)
newest oldest
Mookie
Mookie

October has been another very warm month. I love it!

Slim

A new record high has already been set at Marquette for October 30th. The 6AM reading of 68 is a new record high. The 6AM reading of 70 at Munising is the 2nd warmest for any October 30th the record of 75 was set in 1946. And at the Sault the 6AM reading of 69 is also the 2nd warmest there with 74 in 1901 being the record.
Slim

Slim

Yesterday was a record warm day across Michigan. Here is a recap of the new record around the state. 80 at Kalamazoo and Traverse City, 79 at Grand Rapids, Holland, Battle Creek. 78 at Flint, 77 at Lansing and Saginaw, 73 at Alpena and Houghton Lake, 69 Marquette. And the overnight low at GR so far is just 69 if it stays above 58 until midnight a new record warm low will be set here. It is 69 and windy here at the current time.
Slim

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79R/55 there was 0.11” of rainfall. The highest wind was 31MPH out of the S. The sun was out 63% of the time. For today the average H/L is 55/38 The record high of 79 was set in 1950 the coldest high of 32 was set in 1917. The record low of 18 was set in 1988 the warmest low of 58 was set in 1974. The record rainfall of 2.83” fell in 2009 the most snowfall of 1.5” fell in 1923.
Slim