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Rainy Day Today

We have a fairly warm 67° at 5:30 this morning with rain creeping in from the west.  Yesterday we had .23 of an inch of rain – the high was 76° and the overnight low was 60°.  The total rainfall for the month is 1.51 inches and for the summer 10.72 inches.  Last year we had 9.14 inches by this date.

Today we have showers and storms likely with a break late morning to early afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 80s.  We will see scattered showers overnight and Saturday.


SPC Outlook

Day One


WPC Outlook

Day One


Weather History

1938: A tornado struck between Oil City and Mount Pleasant in Isabella County. No one was injured but a home was torn apart with the roof carried about 100 yards.

1979: High pressure from Canada brings record cold temperatures with Muskegon falling to 36 degrees, the coldest ever recorded there in August. At Grand Rapids, it falls to 40 degrees, and at Lansing 39.

On August 16, 1968, 4.45 inches of rainfall fell in Flint. This is the record for the greatest precipitation recorded in Flint in the month of August and is actually greater than the normal amount of precipitation for the entire month (3.43 inches).


NWS Forecast

Today
Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly before 2 pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 82. South-southeast wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8 pm and 2 am, and then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind around 7 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 62. West northwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Sunday
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11 am. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. North northwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. The chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Night
A chance of thunderstorms before 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low of around 50.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 75.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 50.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 53.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 77.

Forecast Discussion

- Periods of Showers/Storms through Saturday

We are currently in a lull in shower activity. However, a
thunderstorm complex near Chicago is slowly moving ENE toward
Lower MI and may graze the southern cwa early this morning.
Additionally, new convective development over central Wisconsin is
moving east and if it holds together could impact the western cwa
within a few hours.

Low pressure over northwest WI is pushing an occluded front across
the eastern portion of that state and an upper low is sending
minor short waves east toward MI. As a result, mesoanalysis shows
in uptick in shear and mid level lapse rates approaching Lake MI.
We`ll likely see some storms develop by 09z. Even so, shear isn`t
all that high and so svr storms aren`t expected early this
morning, but it wouldn`t be out of the question.

By mid morning, we`ll be in another lull as the first short wave
moves east. The next short wave will approach toward 00z and so
we`ll see an uptick in showers/storms by late afternoon.
Generally, progd shear values are less than 25 kts this afternoon
and so while we`ll likely see storms from late afternoon through
this evening, we`re leaning toward them being non severe.

The next short wave to rotate through the flow will arrive
Saturday morning and we`ll see another uptick in showers/storms
then that will carry through much of the day. Once again, limited
shear will render the storms non severe.

- Showers ending Sunday then fair and cool next week

The rain should be ending by Sunday night as the upper trough axis
and surface low finally kicks out to the east. Fair weather with
below normal temperatures can be expected next week as northwest
flow regime brings in surface high pressure of Canadian origin while
the heat and humidity remains bottled up across the SW CONUS.
Overnight lows will drop into the 40s in rural areas both Monday and
Tuesday nights.

There is a slight chance of showers by the end of next week as
another upper trough approaches from the northwest, but moisture is
limited.
newest oldest
Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Well…so much for the rain. Sprinklers on.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We picked 5 inches so far and more to come! I love it!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

.5 inches and .3 more last night! WOW, just wow, wow!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a summer! No extended heat waves with near to below normal temps in control! Who knew? WOW just wow, wow, WOW!

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/60 there was 0.30” of rainfall the sun was out just 13% of the time. For today the average H/L is 81/62 the record high of 99 was set in 1913 the coldest high of 71 was set in 2001,1924 and 1918. The record low of 40 was set in 1979, the warmest low of 74 was set in 1913. The most rainfall of 1.74” fell in 2016.
Slim