Rain & Storms – Weekend Outlook

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 22

We didn’t get a huge amount of rain yesterday – .19 of an inch in Otego here at the Station.  There is more moving into the area this morning moving from south to north.  Guesses are a quarter to half an inch for today.

Though it is not unheard of we have high temps predicted near 80° coming!

The five-day forecast features much-above-normal highs, especially on Sunday and Monday (63° is the normal high in GR for October 10th). The weekend will be mainly dry with just a slight chance of rain, mainly along and north of I-94 — certainly not a washout. The next system will approach for Monday and Tuesday.

Yesterday’s high temp was 72° and the low was 63° though it was mostly cloudy we did see a few peeks of the sun in the late afternoon.  Our rainfall total for the month is .94 of an inch as of yesterday.


Forecast Discussion

- Warmer than normal into next weekend

Our warmer than normal weather pattern will continue through this
week into the following week. I have to admit through, from
Friday on, it will be significantly closer to normal, but it will still
be warmer than normal even so. These conditions will continue
into the third week of October. What is causing this is persistent
strongly negative mid level height anomalies from northern Russia
(near the Arctic Ocean), across Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska to
near the California Coast. That results in above normal heights
over most of central and eastern North America. Both the GFS, the
ECMWF and numerous ensemble runs of those models continue to show
this pattern persisting. This pattern also creates a storm track
just west of us during this time frame.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms into tonight

In the shorter term, we have an ejecting closed upper low that
will slowly open up as it`s center crossed northern lower Michigan
early tonight. The upper trough associated with this system is
east of our CWA by mid morning Saturday.

This puts our area in the prime area for convection today as the
upper level jet axis crosses our area from southwest to northeast.
The low level jet axis stays over eastern lower Michigan into Lake
Huron during the day but core of the highest winds lifts
northward with time. Given the cold air aloft and very moist air
over us (precipitable water around 1.5 inches) plus MU capes near
1500 j/kg this all says showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall. Since the low level jet is really near and east of
I-75 today, it makes sense there would be an axis of convection
from say Jackson to Lansing to Clare. With some lake breeze wind
convergence we would get a second band of convection between
US-31 and US-131 too. I do not see severe storms all that likely
given the deep layer shear is under 20 knots today. Mostly we will
see slow moving storms dump locally heavy rainfall. That heavy
rain will be very limited in area, most locations will get less
than a 1/4 inch of rain today into this evening.

Tonight the upper trough axis will force the convection to move
to the eastern sections of the CWA, and with sunset, there will be
less instability so convection will be limited.

- Dry most of Saturday and Sunday but storms still possible

The current system moves out of our area Saturday and upper level
ridging moves in. That would normal bring us surface high
pressure. However in this case we have another ejecting shortwave
from the Southwest CONUS. That will mean we largely stay in warm
and moist air even so. Still the clouds should break up some. As
the next system quickly lifts north and east of us Sunday a sort
of warm front could cause showers and thunderstorms north of I-96
Saturday night into early Sunday. Otherwise most of Saturday and
Sunday will be dry for most of our CWA.

With a good surge of warm air ahead of that next system Sunday
could be quite warm, highs may be near 80 near and south of I-96.
Record highs are in the mid 80s then so it does not seem we would
get quite that warm.

- Fall storm Monday night into Tuesday

Now, there is a strong height fall center over the Bering Sea,
this is the currently the strongest such thing in the entire
Northern Hemisphere actually. That center dives quickly into the
western CONUS by Tuesday. That in turn ejects the system that is
currently there into the southern plains were it quickly becomes a
negative tilt upper wave that then quickly closes off another
deep, closed upper low. That system moves through the western
Great Lake Monday night into Tuesday. I could see some decent
thunderstorms and a lot of wind with this system as it moves
through. Given all the wind with it, and deep, warm moist flow
from the Gulf, strong storms would be possible depending on the
timing of the front. I would expect gales on Lake Michigan from
this storm.

- Stronger fall storm Thursday then a little cooler

Of course, we must remember that, that system is not the main
show, it is the system behind that one that is the stronger storm.
That one will come out into the Plains on Wednesday as an even
more impressive fall storm and significantly more surface wind.
This will be another one for gales on Lake Michigan and possibly
strong to severe storms for our area.

This storm though will have something the other storms has not
had for us, COLD AIR! So even through as I said in the first
paragraph, that the upper trough will remain west of us through
the third week of October, this storm will bring in some 850
temperature that are negative. This could bring our air
temperatures cold enough for highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s
for a few days (which by then would be close to normal actually)
but that cold push will be brief as there are more western storms
heading toward us to put us back in the warm air again. Point
being we may see get near freezing over northern sections Saturday
morning, once we are deeper in the cold air (if only for a day or
so).

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Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

Michael in the photo of the Mac Bridge on the left side near the bottom of the photo it shows a group of people standing there. Why? No on is ever there. Just curious. I have looked for info but no luck. Thanks. Sandy

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

According to News 8 we got 2.5″ of rain today in Hudsonville area.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Glad that’s over…received an additional 1.3 inches 🙁

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Heavy, heavy RAIN…ugh

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

We are sure getting alot of thunder here. Not seeing the lightning but it has to be nearby.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Getting a nice light show over this way.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Rain staying E and W of us…just not swinging through here. Keeping on the outdoor stuff 😉

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

As I was driving home this afternoon from taking hubby to pt I could see the dark clouds approaching. We got home and I ran the dog outside and the clouds opened up with the biggest downpour. lol!! It is like a river behind us from the rain running down the hill. I was out looking for a rainbow but none yet. I can feel cooler air coming in.

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Rain totaled .47 – appreciating the sun/warmth. Typical wet October forecast…rain every 36 hours 🙁

Hoping we’ll be able to handle “the transition” into the inevitable.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Just another double digit above average day to add to the streak. Nearly 20 degrees above average for our overnight low. We did get a little rain today, a whopping 0.09”. Rain has been hard to come by the past couple months, even more so to the West of us.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I wish I could send some your way. It is soggy here. The grass is as green and lush here now as it has been all year. I’ve been mowing every three days lately and I’ve had to time my mows in between the rainfall.

Slim

The rain has now ended and the rain gauge reads 0.67″ the sun came out for a few minutes. The current temperature here is 67 with cloudy skies.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

More rain! Our wet Fall continues! Keep the warm temps around all month and then start the transition to a record breaking winter for snow! Bring it!

Slim

Most but not all of the highest snow fall winters at Grand Rapids had October’s that were warmer than average. But note there have been warm Octobers with little snow fall in the winter as well.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Interesting!

Mookie
Mookie

Through the first week of October, the average temp was 65.2. This is 2 degrees warmer than the average monthly temp of September! When all is said is done, it will be as if 2 extra weeks were added on between August and September this year. I love it!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It is nice to have the windows open at 8am on Oct 8th. Birds are chirping like crazy right now. Feels and sounds like spring.

Slim

In a way it kind of feels and smells like winter is south Florida.
Slim

Slim

Yet another warm (for October) overnight low the official overnight low at Grand Rapids was just 65 if it don’t fall below that before midnight this will be the 2nd warmest low for any October 8 at Grand Rapids. That is after yesterdays official low of 62 was the 3rd warmest low for any October 7th If Grand Rapids reaches 80 on Sunday that would be the 5th warmest high for that date. At this time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.
Slim

*SS*
*SS*

I have been splitting and moving flowers around, so this rain is much appreciated!! Hopefully next year we will have a flower garden.
MV I thought about how you said you have beautiful flowers that you and wife tend too. What are some.of your favorites?