Yesterday we reached 50° with a morning low of 35°.
We have another round of lake effect snow on the way, starting for some tonight and then expanding in coverage and intensity on Wednesday. Plan for the potential of slow commutes Wednesday evening, especially Thursday morning when temperatures will be in the teens. The winter storm watch goes into effect tomorrow morning for the lakeshore counties.
…WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING…
* WHAT…Heavy snow is possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as
high as 35 mph.
* WHERE…A portion of southwest Michigan.
* WHEN…From Wednesday morning through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.
Another dip back into winter weather is expected midweek, with locally heavy lake-effect snow in many of the same areas that saw it during the week after Thanksgiving. Occasionally slick and snowy roads are expected, not only in West Michigan but also in portions of Mid Michigan whenever moderate snow shower passes through. Visibility, travel speeds, and road conditions can change quickly in lake-effect snow. The impacts of this event will start off fairly minor early Wednesday and gradually worsen toward Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as colder air arrives.
Weather History
1971: Record highs in the lower 60s are recorded across Lower Michigan as a southerly flow of warm moist air precedes a cold front. Record rains of around 2 inches fall as the cold front moves through.
2009: Near blizzard conditions develop as heavy snow combines with strong winds. From 12 to 16 inches of snow piles up across much of western Lower Michigan from December 9th to the 11th.
On December 10, 1876, the overnight temperature plummeted to -9 degrees in Detroit, 34 degrees below the average overnight temperature for that day.
Forecast Discussion
- Winter Weather will return tonight through Thursday The forecast for the incoming system continues to come into focus. There remain some questions; The first is the start time. The unsaturated dendritic growth zone as the system enters northwestern lower Michigan could mean drizzle instead of snow for a brief period today. Warm air out ahead will keep temperatures above freezing with any precipitation during the daytime today a rain/snow mix. The models are in good agreement on the timing of the deepening trough that will swing through the plains and through the Great Lakes beginning tonight. That trough stems from a large upper level low making the trek southward from Manitoba into Ontario. The conditions will worsen by Wednesday morning, especially in the NW lakeshore counties. As per previous discussions, the lake temperature differential remains significant and the question becomes not if a meso low develops, but where. Widespread heavy snow fall rates are most likely in Mason and Oceana counties and in lake effect snow bands. Given the latest model runs there is the potential for some inland infiltration which could see increased snow into Osceola. Thus have expanded the watch. There is a significant timing differential to impacts between the watch counties. Given that disparity, have separated the counties based on timing. Have Mason, Oceana, Lake, Osceola, Muskegon and Newaygo beginning 00Z this evening with the southern counties watch beginning 12Z Wednesday. Winds will continue to increase through Wednesday with gusts upwards of 35 mph possible, especially along the lakeshore. Mid to low level streamlines continue to show convergence from the NW to the SE across lower Michigan which should allow for the formation of snow bands by Wednesday afternoon. That could allow for hazardous travel conditions for Wednesdays morning through Thursday morning commutes. The arctic front will drop down late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures behind that front are potentially as low as -24C at 850mb. That could drop temperatures into the low teens Thursday morning with possible wind chills in the negative single digits. Max Temperatures Thursday will have a hard time getting to 20F. Lows in the single digits to low teens will be possible Friday morning. - Warmer with Rain/Snow for the Weekend The impressive cold blast is short lived as the upper trough kicks out on Friday and above freezing temperatures move back in for the weekend. A potent looking Pacific shortwave moves to the central Plains on Friday then gradually dampens while dragging across the GrtLks Region over the weekend. A decent burst of warm advection/isentropic lift precipitation is possible out ahead of this system but there is variability regarding the timing of the precip, the track of the sfc low, and precip type/amounts. A few inches of accumulating wet snow is possible Friday night into early Sat if an earlier arrival occurs before temperatures can warm up, especially near/north of I-96. Otherwise rain or a rain/snow mixture is expected Saturday into Saturday night with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Temps moderate further for Sunday and Monday with highs near 40 expected.
>>>>BREAKING WEATHER ALERT>>>>>The latest RDB model gives GR 6-8 inches of snow! Clearly Kent County should be in a WARNING! Heavy SNOW, wind, cold, low visibilities! Get ready to rock! What a storm!!! Incredible!
Here is the latest on the “storm”
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/12/winter-storm-coming-whats-changed-overnight.html
Looks like a roller coaster week. I have to wonder if that is what this winter will be like a day or two of cold then 3 to 5 days of warm with snow then rain.
Slim
Glad we had a little warm up to melt most of the snow before the next one comes in.
The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY 31 with mostly cloudy skies. There is another Winter Storm Watch out for western Lower Michigan. Many areas did not get much snow from the last one we shall see how much we get out of this one. There will be a very brief shot of cold then a warm up again. There are indications that Christmas may be rather mild. If Grand Rapids has a green Christmas it will be the 7th time in the last 10 years
Slim
I wonder if the wind will be more NW or more W this time… last event a lot of the snow missed Grand Rapids to the south west… we will see
Yesterday’s official H/L was 50/41 there was 0.02” of rainfall there was no snowfall. The sun was out 19% of the possible time. The highest wind was 32 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 38/26 the record high is 62 in 1971 the coldest high was 14 in 1995. The record low of 5 was in 1977 the warmest low of 45 was in 1971. The wettest was 2.13” in 1971 the most snowfall was 7.2” in 2009 the most on the ground was 9” in 1962.
Slim