Rain & Snow Chances

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 23

Some sun will be seen in spots this morning, otherwise, skies will trend towards cloudy through the course of the day in SW Michigan. Highs today around the 40-degree mark. Rain and snow will develop this evening changing over to all snow overnight. Accumulations tonight… trace amounts to around 2 inches. Lows tonight near 32.

As I said last week I was not overly excited with snowfall amounts for the end of the week into the weekend.  The true Arctic air is still propagating into  Eurasia rather than North America.  I am not sure we will see any severe cold outbreaks anytime soon or later for that matter.

NWS Forecast Discussion

-- Band of snow tonight into Friday for portions of the area --

Today for the most part will be dry across Southwest Lower
Michigan. Precipitation associated with the upper low looks to
hold off until towards 7pm this evening across far Western Lower
Michigan. The precipitation initially this evening will either be
rain or a rain/snow mix. The profile cools through the overnight
with snow becoming the dominant precipitation type. There are
hints in the models that we could be looking at a band of snow
across the northern half of the forecast area or from roughly the
I-96 corridor to the north overnight into Friday. There is not a
consensus in timing or placement, but the most favored location
for this band is across Central Lower Michigan tonight into Friday
morning. It appears that a wet 1-3 inches of snow is possible.
Given temperatures near freezing and the fact that we are in mid
January no headline planned at this time for the snow.

-- Cloudy with occasional chances for light snow Sat-Mon --

The upper low drifts off to the east on Saturday. Cannot rule out
some areas of light snow on Saturday, but not expecting any
significant accumulation for sure. The weekend overall looks to be
damp (occasional light/wet snow) and cloudy.

There is an upper wave forecast to swing through the Southern
Great Lakes on Sunday which may bring us a bit more in the way of
precipitation, however the wave looks to largely miss us to the
south. Southern Lower Michigan would be most in line to see
synoptic precip via this wave.

We finally get cold enough for lake effect snow on Sunday. The
models have trended a bit warmer overall up until this point. -9 C
is the value needed for lake effect given a +4 C lake and that
shows up Sunday. Moisture depth looks shallow so not expecting
anything significant. Moisture depth does increase Sunday night
and that may be a time frame to keep an eye on.

-- Another chance of some light snow Tuesday --

A shortwave aloft takes aim on the area around the Tuesday time
frame in generally zonal flow. Moisture depth briefly increases
once again and we are cold enough for lake effect snow. So, this
will be another time frame to keep an eye on. The wave is moving
through the flow fairly quick though, so it would only be a 12-18
hour period of precipitation.

Overall, we are not impressed with any of the snow chances
through the 7 day forecast. There will be some occasional snow,
both synoptic and lake effect, but nothing that is going to rise
to a significant level.

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Andy W
Jeff (Portland)
Jeff (Portland)

Lol !

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Looks great and if we don’t get a few snowstorms in the next 2 months I may just buy that baby!

Jeff (Portland)
Jeff (Portland)

Great pattern we are in !!! Keep it coming !!! I love it !!!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)
Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Boy, sunny, 43 degrees, and I found a dandelion open in the yard. Can it get any better than this for mid January/Winter?? Maybe a good thunderstorm?

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

I am heading up to SNOW country this weekend! It should be awesome ski conditions up there. They will be getting 2 to 4 inches of fresh snow in the next couple days! Incredible and fantastic! I have been able to ski and snowshoe on a regular basis all winter long! Who would have thought?

Andy W
Andy W

Poor Bill, he wishcasts for snow and cold almost as much as Rocky. You can just hear the dejection and hopelessness is this blog post.

https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/some-snow-but-no-big-storms/

Mookie
Mookie

Just 4 days ago, Bill wrote in his blog, “We’re still on track for significant accumulating snow on Friday.” And he showed a snow map that showed GR getting 5-6″ of snow tomorrow.

Whoops!

https://www.woodtv.com/bills-blog-2/snow-next-friday/

Andy W
Andy W

Hmmmm??? Don’t know why Rocky isn’t posting the 5 day snow map today??

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php?STATIONID=GRR

Mookie
Mookie

*poof* the snow has pretty much disappeared again!

*SS*
*SS*

Boy the NOAA map out west looks crazy… will the lake stop all that from getting to us?

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

With all the maps being posted lately, here’s the precip map posted by Bill today for the next week. Not much here!

comment image?w=795&h=553&crop=1

Mookie
Mookie

Very dry with very little lake effect. Interesting. The snow drought continues!

Nathan (forest Hills)
Nathan (forest Hills)

Some helpful driving advice for everyone 😀 I woke up this morning and noticed how warm it was. I even commented that the driveway had looked wet and I wondered if it had rained last night. I made the mistake of not checking the temp (it was just below freezing) and assuming that because the driveway was wet, that the roads would be wet too. Mistake! I was overconfident and driving the full speed limit on Burton when I hit a huge patch of black ice (which I thought for sure was water based on my previous assumptions) and lost… Read more »

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Another item of note, we are fast approaching the 10 year anniversary of our last blizzard on groundhogs day 2011. Anyone remember when we sometimes used to get several blizzards each year? Now it’s getting hard just to remember “a” blizzard.

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Mid point of met Winter today and what a historic snow drought we are in! With no upcoming cold air outbreaks and very little snow in the forecast, the drought looks to continue. Check out the complete lack of a “snow pack” on the Holland web cams:

https://www.cityofholland.com/645/MIHollandCAM

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Shoot, we have more snow here.

Slim

We are now 14 days into January 2021 and it is still mild with very little snow fall. The mean for the month is now at 29.8 and that is good for a departure of +5.0 and Grand Rapids remains at 2.2” of snow fall for the month. And for the season 7.5” Grand Rapids is now over 30” below average is the snow fall department. And even in norther Michigan reporting locations are now below average for total snow fall
https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow
At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 29.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Wow, those are some shockingly low totals for Northern Michigan!

Bernie (Hamilton)
Bernie (Hamilton)

La Nina’ is letting me down… I feel like that character Charley in Rudolph, from the land of misfit toys…
“I would cry, but I haven’t got any tears left”. :< (

Mookie
Mookie

41 out of the last 51 days have now been average to above average temps (including today).

Yesterday was a balmy +12 degrees above average.

Mookie
Mookie

“Overall, we are not impressed with any of the snow chances through the 7 day forecast.” NWS GRR

I love it! The snow drought continues.