Rain Showers Today 2/26

Yesterday was a very pleasant late winter day with a high of 51° and a morning low of 27°.

Rain will be moving into the region from the west this morning and it will continue through the afternoon. The temperature to start the day will be around freezing so it’s possible we could see a few slick spots due to a brief period of freezing rain and/or snow. High temperatures today will reach the 40 to 45-degree range for most locations. The unsettled weather continues into Thursday.

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Weather History

2000: Record warm weather continues during a week-long spell of balmy weather across Lower Michigan. The temperature hits 66 degrees at Muskegon for a record high. The low temperature at Grand Rapids is 53 degrees, setting a record for the warmest low temperature for the month of February.

On February 26, 2020, a long-duration snowstorm occurred with widespread reports of 3 to 6 inches of snow over much of the county warning area (SE Michigan).

On February 26, 2019, a snowstorm brought about 2 to 4 inches across areas along and north of I-69, while areas to the south saw 2 inches or less.

On February 26, 1944, the temperature rose to 68 degrees at Detroit Metro Airport. This is a record maximum temperature for the month of February in Detroit.

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Forecast Discussion

- Rain Showers Today, Could Be A Light Wintry Mix

The forecast details remain a challenge today but overall the
impacts should be limited as a disorganized low moves through. Rain
is still expected to be the main precip type although spots of ice
or wet snow can occur.

There has been a southward shift in the QPF guidance with most of
the 00Z HREF member models, to the point where areas north of M-20
don`t need likely PoPs. QPF to the south of M-20 is still generally
in the 0.10 to 0.30 inch range, though some model runs lately are
indicating a narrower swath with more potential for a given location
to bust lower rather than higher. Weak midlevel instability mid day
may help to enhance precip rates briefly along with bringing a
slight chance of thunder (5 to 10 percent south of I-96).

One challenge is for some light ice if there is an early onset to
the precip this morning, which could occur if narrow bands of more
moderate precip from 850-700 mb frontogenesis can make it through
drier low levels. This is not high confidence. The other challenge
is for wet snow to mix in via wet bulb cooling of the low levels
during higher precip rates mid day, even down to I-94. The day may
end with drizzle as the midlevels dry out.

- Rain and Snow Showers Thursday

Showers are anticipated to develop throughout Thursday as a Clipper
and reinforcing cold front moves in on the heels of Wednesday`s
departing low. Lapse rates in the lower levels will be a bit steeper
though instability will be pretty weak and shallow. Mostly rain is
expected again, but some snow can mix in, more so to the north and
also later in the day to the south. There is a chance for wet roads
to freeze up Thursday evening in Central Michigan as temperatures
fall.

- Windy Friday into Saturday with Some Snow Possible North

Yet another Clipper, this one within an amplifying longer-wave
trough over the Great Lakes and a deeper surface low passing through
northern Michigan, will bring more borderline snow potential and
breezy winds Friday into Saturday. Temperatures on Friday in
Southern Michigan will be quite mild, making another run at 50. To
the north of Big Rapids and Mt Pleasant, it may be just cold enough
Fri morning on the southern periphery of the warm advection precip
shield for some snow. A quick shot of light snow may also occur on
the cold conveyor side Fri night. Snow chances in Central Mich will
be largely dependent on the track of the low, as the best swath of
snow should fall north of the low`s track in northern Michigan.
Gusts 35-40 mph are possible, both southwesterly during the day Fri
and northwesterly Fri night.

- Colder Temperatures for the Weekend

850 mb temperatures -15 C or slightly colder should keep daytime
temperatures below freezing Saturday and Sunday. Lake effect snow
showers in NNW flow Saturday should become more subdued as low-level
ridging and surface high pressure works its way in. There may be
some slick spots Saturday morning.