Rain Returns Again

After a fairly pleasant day yesterday, the rain will make steady progress into southern lower Michigan today.  Steadier rain is expected from Friday afternoon through Friday night into Saturday, when many locations across our area will likely receive an inch or two of rainfall with locally higher amounts of over two inches expected.  Sunday partly sunny skies should return briefly before our next chance of rain for the beginning of the work week.

Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Patchy frost this morning

 Latest satellite shows streams of clouds through central Lower
with clearing skies along the US 10 corridor. Temps have dropped
to the low 30s which will allow for patchy frost in these regions
possible. Elsewhere there has been persistent clouds will keep
temperatures in the 40s. The clouds will continue to move
northward as the upper level low moves to the east. Clouds will
overspread the region into the afternoon. Temperatures will peak
into the 50s across Lower Michigan.

- Rain possible this evening

 Along with the mid level clouds will come some moisture. Latest
models have trended downward on depth of moisture so any
precipitation is less likely. However, there remains some moisture
associated with the warm air advection out ahead of the
approaching upper level low. That will allow for an increased
chance of precipitation late today overnight into Friday.

- Rain chances increase Friday

 The before mentioned upper level low will move through the
Midwest and into the Great Lakes tomorrow. This will bring good
dynamics with strong upper level vorticity. Along with the forcing
will be bring showers with afternoon thunderstorms. The decent
dynamics with warm air advection from that system will continue
into the next forecast period.

Friday night into Saturday remains the focus of the long term due to
the high likelihood of rainfall during this time. It is by far the
most consequential weather of the Friday night through next Thursday
time frame.

The long term period begins with an upper low pushing into the
region from the west Friday night. The rain event will be two fold.
the first will be the Friday night period where a low level jet will
impinge upon an 850mb warm front. The second will be the cold
conveyor belt of the system on Saturday. Both will produce
widespread rain across the area. QPF amounts have backed off a bit,
with WPC now indicating higher end amounts being in the 1-2 inch
range. We should not have any issue handling this type of rainfall
event, especially given some areas will be below 1 inch. The low
quickly moves away to the east coast on Saturday night and
precipitation quickly tapers off.

Upper troughing will persist Saturday night through Sunday night in
a north flow behind the system. Lake effect rain showers will be
possible, but given the direction, most of the precipitation will be
over the Great Lakes or near the Lake Michigan shoreline.
Precipitation amounts should be on the light side.

Mainly dry weather is expected from Monday through Wednesday as
ridging moves through the area. Our next chances for rain will come
next Thursday as a trough approaches from the west. Following the
ECMWF for guidance at this range in the forecast as we think the GFS
is too quick with this next wave.

U.S.A and Global Events for October 12th:

1918: On October 10, 1918, two men working near a railroad siding northwest of Cloquet, Minnesota, saw a passenger train pass by the siding, and soon after, that discovered a fire burning through grass and piles of wood. The fire could not be contained, and by October 12, fires had spread through northern Minnesota. At least 450 lives were lost, and 52,000 people were injured or displaced, 38 communities were destroyed, 250,000 acres were burned. Click HERE for more information from the Library of Congress.

The image above is a residential area of Cloquet after the 1918 fire. The image is courtesy of the Minnesota Historical Society.

1962: The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was a Pacific Northwest windstorm that struck the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States. It is considered the benchmark of extratropical wind storms. The storm ranks among the most intense to strike the region since at least 1948, likely since the January 9, 1880 “Great Gale” and snowstorm. Click HERE for more information from the University of Washington. Click HERE for a video about this event.

The image above is the surface weather analysis of the Columbus Day Storm on October 13th, 1962.

1979: The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded occurs in the center of Typhoon Tip on this day. A fly reconnaissance mission recorded the low pressure of 870 hPa or 25.69 inHg. Typhoon Tip was the most extensive tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 1380 miles at its peak.

The satellite image above is Typhoon Tip at peak intensity on October 12th, 1979.

The image above is a comparison of the United States, Super Typhoon Tip, and the smallest storm, Tropical Cyclone Tracy.