We had yet another dry day in Otsego yesterday with the showers and storms developing east of 131. Rain is moving in from the south this morning with promises of a good soaker especially from Grand Rapids to the south. We had .84 of an inch last month in Otsego, we hope to surpass that total today and tonight. The CPC is guessing normal to above-normal precipitation over the next couple of weeks which is welcome news. They are also guessing below-normal temperatures beginning on the 7th and beyond.
June Summary
U.S.A and Global Events for July 2nd:
1833: The following is from the “History and Description of New England” published in 1860: “On the 2nd of July, 1833, this town (Holland, Vermont) was visited by a violent tornado, which commenced on Salem Pond in Salem, and passed over this place in a northeasterly direction. It was from half to three-quarters of a mile wide and prostrated and scattered nearly all the trees, fences, and buildings in its course. It crossed the outlet of Norton Pond and passed into Canada, and its path could be traced through the forests nearly to the Connecticut River.”
1843: An alligator reportedly fell from the sky onto Anson Street in Charleston, SC during a thunderstorm. (YIKES)
2001: In Michigan, frost and freezing temperatures were observed in some locations with Grant dropping to 29 degrees. Muskegon reported its coldest July temperature on record with 39 degrees. Other daily record lows included: Lansing: 38, Muskegon: 39, Flint: 40, Youngstown, Ohio: 40, and Grand Rapids, Michigan: 43 degrees.
Grand Rapids Forcast
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Lansing Forecast
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Kalamazoo Forecast
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Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Main focus of the short term is on convective trends and the potential for locally heavy rain. Two features that will dictate convective trends today will be a frontal boundary draped across the Michigan/Indiana border and a MCV driving northeast from across portions of Northern Illinois. The precipitation will be aided by both of these features. An upper trough overhead will also help precipitation production as a weak low develops across Indiana. The precipitation will be diurnally driven/enhanced, so we expect a precipitation max during the afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not anticipated as deep layer shear will be weak. Heavy rain is certainly on the docket at least locally with PWATs near 1.75 inches and slow storm movement. We will not see widespread heavy rain but some areas will see rainfall on the order of 1-2 inches with very localized max values towards 3-4 inches. Precipitation will be most widespread across out south and east. Areas towards Ludington will see much less precipitation than Jackson. Tonight the boundary will begin to sag southward and the low will move towards Lake Erie. The impetus for the precipitation moving away and the diurnal minimum will taper off the rainfall considerably. Very low chances for precipitation on Monday as the surface boundary will be south and east of the area. The HREF shows much less convective activity on Monday. Cannot rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm in the east, towards Lansing and Jackson. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Forecast concerns in the long term deal with convective trends Wednesday. The short range models have been in pretty good agreement over the past few days showing a seasonably strong cold front moving in from the northwest on the heels of a fairly strong high. There hasn`t been too much change in the thermodynamics ahead of the front. Decent moisture transport vectors will push precipitable water values over 2 inches ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF still bring the front through during peak heating, so that will enhance the convective threat. Right now, the models show the highest SBCAPE south of I-96 and bulk shear values around 20-25 knots. That`s not too impressive and would suggest that the chances of convective organization is relatively low. However, any storms that develop will likely be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Given many locations have recently received 2-5 inches of rainfall, a flooding threat may develop, depending on where the storms develop. Once the front clears the cwa Thursday, cooler and drier...dewpoints in the 50s...air will advect in. Highs will be close to 90 Tuesday and Wednesday and in the 80s Thursday-Saturday.
Horrible forecast today! Total rainfall here = ZERO!
Rain today? What rain?
We got about a 15 minute downpour at my house and that’s about it. What a joke!
Horrible!
Minimal rain here today and today was supposedly the best chance for heavy rain? Yesterday the chances were less and I picked up 2 inches! Wow, just wow!
Still waiting for some rain. Had a few sprinkles this morning, hardly enough to get the ground wet. Super humid with some sun peeking out this afternoon.
The worst, and most impactful weather in the short term will be
through tonight with showers/storms through this evening, then fog
overnight.
The main driver for the showers and storms across the southern
half of the forecast area this afternoon is an area of low
pressure at the sfc and aloft at the southern end of Lake
Michigan. It is this feature that has caused flooding across
Chicago today. We are seeing the occluded front and mid level
deformation being the focus for the showers and storms in our area
this afternoon.
The lack of diurnal warming today is really limiting the thunder
potential today, although it is not zero and has been observed.
This is likely due to the very moist lower levels combining with
the cooler air aloft and forcing with the low. The limited
warming, and a lack of deep layer shear should help to really
limit any severe potential this far north. The main threat with
these showers/storms will be locally heavy rains with precipitable
water values up around 1.75 inches, and slow movement. The highest
potential for localized flooding would be across the SW corner of
the area where the low might move to before opening up.
We think that the coverage is starting to peak, and will continue
for the next couple of hours. Then, the upper/mid level lows are
forecast to open up, and start moving east of the area by daybreak
Mon. This should help to diminish the coverage of the showers and
storms mid evening. It does look like all of the area today with
appreciable rain should see fog and low level clouds hold/fill in
tonight with some breaks in the clouds and light winds. Not sure
how dense the fog will get with a fair amount of cloud cover
likely holding on.
Once the fog lifts and dissipates by Monday afternoon, things
should be much quieter tomorrow afternoon with upper ridging
building in behind the low from today. It may not be quite strong
enough to limit all pop up showers/storms. We should see troughing
strengthen inland Mon afternoon as a weakness between the two
mesoscale ridges over the lakes. This, combined with almost 1,000
J/kg of CAPE could touch off isolated showers and storms inland.
These would the pulse type variety with lighter winds up through
the column and small shear values. These would die out by sunset,
leaving the rest of Monday night quiet.
Messo out for tranning rain 2-5 inches of rain we dont often see that crazzy let it rain rain let rain ….i would imagine all of Southern lower Michigan is getting rain today ….INDY
Not sure if the NASCAR race in Chicago will happen today. There’s a flash flood warning for Cook County.
What is this stuff falling from the sky and puddles???? With a little thunder…
No rain at my house yesterday. I have to have one of the driest and drought plagued front yards on this blog. Just because it rained where you are doesn’t me the drought is “over” for all. I hope that changes here today.
It is a tough concept for some to grasp that weather, including rain, can be highly variable from one location to another.
Yes, rain snow wind and temperatures can and often do vary in a short location. That was really the case with rain this past few days. Yesterday here at my house I only had 0.02″ of rain while less than 3 miles to the NE there were reports of well over 2″
Slim
Rock on Kyle and I never said the drought is over in all of MI, however it is over at least in Northern Kent county! 6 inches in a week is definitely a drought buster! Let’s hope you see some significant rain today!!
Glad to see you got a good amount of rain as well as other parts of the area. Send some this way!
I think we are in a similar boat. Haha. I am happy with the rain I got this week. But every time I look at the radar or hear others say their totals I am a bit depressed. Haha.
Currently rain and a temperature of 75 out in my hood nice Sunday funday….. INDY
Over 6 inches of rain in a week! Drought, what drought?
No more drought…. possibility of flooding today along I 94 in southern lower Michigan…INDY
Rainy 4th of July weekend!! Lots of card games being played in campers this weekend great fire weather though…. Check out all the blue on the map wih it be being the hottest month of year we will take it …. happy Sunday funday INDY
No heat waves in sight and the persistent near to below normal temp pattern keeps rocking and rolling! I love it!
Not a drop of rain here either yesterday. Hopefully today we get some.
Wow really? We had multiple storms here yesterday, and it’s raining currently. Must be hit-or-miss
It rarely rains or snows in Zeeland! They have a shield over the town!
The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/66 the official rain fall was 0.40” There was 12% of possible sunshine. And there were 9 Cooling Degree Days. It was a rather humid day with dew points mostly in the upper 60’s The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature is 68 it is still rather humid and there are now a few sprinkles in the area.
Slim
For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 98 was set in 1910 and the record low of 43 was set in 2001. The record rain fall amount of 3.18” fell in 2008 Talking about rain fall the official rain fall for yesterday was 0.40” here in MBY I only had 0.02” and not too far away to the NE of my house very heavy rain fell and the streets were flooded. I know this as I was driving to work yesterday and there was so much rain fall that the roads were flooded.
Slim
Today looks to be cloudy with a good chance of rain. The rest of the Holladay period look to be warm to hot there is a chance of more rain on Wednesday. Not a good day for me for rain as I have tickets to see the Tigers game in Detroit on Wednesday. After mid week it looks to be some rather nice pleasant summer weather.
Slim