Rain Continues Today

I haven’t had time to gather all the data for rainfall in the area, you can put your observed values in the comments section.  As of 7 am, we have had 1.01 inches in Otsego and it is raining hard at this time.  Here are the current warnings, advisories, and watches in place.

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, and southwest
  Michigan, including the following counties, in central Michigan,
  Gratiot, Isabella and Montcalm. In south central Michigan,
  Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and Jackson. In southwest
  Michigan, Allegan, Barry, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa and Van Buren.

* WHEN...Through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Moderate to heavy rainfall has fallen across the watch area
    since Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from 2 inches to
    over 5 inches have been reported, especially near East
    Lansing. Additional rainfall may result in flooding of poor
    drainage and other low lying areas.

...FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southwest Michigan,
  including the following counties, in south central Michigan,
  Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham and Jackson. In southwest Michigan,
  Kalamazoo and Van Buren.

* WHEN...Until 1000 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
  Water over roadways. Some low-water crossings may become
  impassable.

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Sycamore Creek at Holt.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon to Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Expect minor flooding of low lying areas
  adjacent to the river, in the Lansing Municipal Golf Course and
  sections of East Mt. Hope Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 2.6 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 8.9 feet early Thursday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage Thursday
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    9.0 feet on 03/13/1982.

NWS Forecast

Weather History

1895: Record cold temperatures occur on the second consecutive day at Lansing. The low of 39 degrees follows a low of 42 degrees on July 9th.

1897: A ten-day heat wave, one of the most intense on record, peaked with highs near 100 degrees across the region. At Lansing, it was the third straight day with highs of 100 degrees, unprecedented in the record books.

1996: Cool weather prevails with Muskegon setting a record-low temperature of 44 degrees.

On July 10, 1898, the temperature dropped to 40 degrees in Saginaw. It was the second coldest temperature on record for the month. The coldest is 39 degrees.

Forecast Discussion

-Rain continues today, ending tonight

Local and regional radar shows moderate to heavy rain falling over
the cwa as low pressure in central Indiana moves northeast toward
Lower MI. Also noted was a dry slot moving north across eastern
IN. However, latest scans show rain beginning to fill back in.
However, we may see a decrease in the intensity of the rain as we
go through the morning. The back edge of the rain shield was over
western IL and will slowly move east with the low.

Expect light to moderate rainfall today with additional
accumulations 1.5 to 2 inches south of a Mt Pleasant to Holland
line. The surface low is progd to continue to deepen slightly
through 12z before it begins to fill and move northeast away from
the region. The supporting upper trough will remain in place for a
few more days.

Cross sections of wind profiles today show that we`ll likely tap
into 30-35 kt winds across the southern cwa, but all of that might
not make it down to the surface. However, enough will to make for
breeze conditions. Rainfall should end by around midnight
tonight.

-A few more storms possible Thursday

A seasonably strong shortwave will rotate through the upper trough
Thursday over Michigan. This could result in additional showers
and storms Thursday afternoon over the eastern half of the cwa.

- Summer Like Precipitation Pattern For Friday into Next Week

Some upper troughing hangs on into Friday before a trend towards
zonal this weekend and eventually a bit of ridging into early next
week. We are carrying either dry weather or only a 20 pct chance of
precipitation Friday into Saturday in the wake of the tropical
moisture. Just not much of a focus during that time frame. Once we
get to Saturday night however a western ridge is well established
placing the Great Lakes in a northwest flow. Both the GFS and the
ECWMF show ridging riding shortwaves out of the plains working into
our area in a northwest flow. At the surface a stationary boundary
is located through our area which occasional rounds of showers and
storms. This looks to be the case from Sunday into Tuesday. MUCAPE
values are still forecast to reach the 3000-5000 j/kg range so
thunderstorms concerns with regard to severe weather are in play.

- Warmest Temperatures Expected Sunday and Monday

850mb temperatures are at typical summer levels until we get to
Sunday and Monday when values push into the lower 20`s C. We will
likely try to make a run into the 90s on those two days with 80s the
rest of the time. At this point the guidance on Sunday and Monday
seems a bit low given the low 20s C 850mb temperatures.

Hydrology

The Flood Advisory will continue through 10 am for Calhoun, Eaton,
Ingham, Jackson, Kalamazoo, and Van Buren Counties.

Moderate rain will continue today before ending tonight. So far,
pockets of 4+ inches have fallen in far southern Kalamazoo County,
Calhoun County and Ingham County. The greatest amount was
localized near East Lansing at just under 6 inches. An additional
1.5-2 inches is possible before the rain ends tonight.

As all this water falls, we will almost certainly have some
flooding issues. This will most likely be a combination of short-
term general flooding of roads, creeks, and yards. The creeks and
streams in the Kalamazoo area that are the most flood-prone (like
Portage Creek) will very likely spill over their banks. This may
also happen in the urban areas around Lansing and Jackson as well.


As the water finds it`s way through the river systems, we`re
expecting flooding of the medium sized rivers (tributaries) as well.
Of most concern would be the Portage River at Vicksburg (near
Kalamazoo), Sycamore Creek near Holt (Lansing area), and the
headwaters areas of both the Kalamazoo and Grand Rivers. If the
heaviest rain corridor expands northeast toward the Lansing area,
we`ll probably also eventually be talking about more flooding within
the Grand River system - including on the Thornapple River and
possibly even the flood-prone areas near Comstock Park north of
Grand Rapids.

Working in our favor is the fact that the forests and farm fields
are able to "drink" a lot of water this time of year. That will help
intercept a fair amount of this water before it gets to the rivers.
However, there`s no way to avoid the fact that we`re talking about a
huge chunk of water, and much of it will eventually find its way
into the rivers. 4-6" rain amounts would represent as much as 15% of
the total amount of rain that typically falls in a year in Lower
Michigan. When a single storm starts dropping this amount of rain,
there`s no way to avoid at least minor flooding. Details on the most-
impacted areas will become more clear as the rain begins to fall. In
the meantime, anyone living or recreating near rivers in the Grand
and Kalamazoo basins, as well as anyone planning to drive through
flood-prone areas in Lower Michigan, should prepare now for possible
flooding.