Yesterday we managed to reach 61° for our high temperature in Otsego. We have a chance of rain today with coverage varying across the area; showers will be most numerous near I-94, with relatively isolated coverage near US-10. Showers are possible in some areas on Thursday, with better chances of rain area-wide this weekend. It is nice to see a more active weather pattern after our extended boring dry spell. The lawns and gardens appreciate the rain rather than the well water being dumped on them.
Coverage of rain showers today will vary across the area. Showers will be most numerous across southwest Lower MI, and relatively isolated across central Lower. High temps will range from 60–65° near the lakeshore, to 66–70° across inland areas.
U.S.A and Global Events for June 13th:
1972: Severe weather conditions over the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico begin to converge and form a tropical depression that would become Hurricane Agnes over the next two weeks. This hurricane affected most of the eastern United States with the Northeast being the hardest hit area with heavy rainfall.
1976: A deadly tornado moved across parts of the southwestern Chicago, Illinois suburbs killing three people and injuring 23 others. The tornado, with winds over 200 mph moved from Lemont to Downers Grove causing $13 million in damage when 87 homes were destroyed, and another 90 were damaged. The tornado passed over the Argonne National Laboratory, peeling part of a roof of the building housing a nuclear reactor. The tornadoes movement was somewhat erratic moving southeast to the north and finally turning northwest.
Grand Rapids Forecast
6 13 grrLansing Forecast
6 13 lanKalamazoo Forecast
6 13 kzoForecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 Upper low and associated cold pool are directly overhead this morning. Typically in this regime we would expect to see diurnal development of showers/tstms in the afternoon, however the air mass is quite dry in the center portion of the upper low circulation with PWATs only around one half inch. Also the west- southwest flow off Lk MI that develops/strengthens by afternoon keeps sfc instability limited over much of our area. If any diurnal convection does develop under the upr low this afternoon it should be mainly near and east of U.S. Route 127. Some locally heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds would be possibly with any deeper convection around LAN and JXN eastward. Really the main thing to watch today is the trowal on the west side of the upr low which briefly wraps into wrn and srn sections of the area late this afternoon and during the evening. Differing solutions exist as to how much this feature impacts southwest Michigan, with the RAP most aggressive and showing over an inch of rain for the BIV/AZO/LWA areas. The RAP is the outlier though and most other guidance keeps that swath of heavier rain over far srn Lk MI and nrn IN which aligns with 00Z HREF 24 hr LPMM QPF solution. Consensus solution is for 0.25 to 0.50 QPF in the far sw corner of Lwr MI and generally less than 0.25 elsewhere today and tonight. The trowal works south and out of srn sections of the CWFA overnight tonight, with a dry forecast and partial clearing following in it`s wake. A dry and milder day with more in the way of sunshine is anticipated on Wednesday as the upper low continues slowly eastward toward New England. It could turn a bit breezy in the afternoon however with decent pressure gradient on the back side of the departing low. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023 -- Chance of showers/t-storms late Wed night and Thu -- A shortwave trough and associated vort max will dive southeastward into the region on Wed night, accompanied by a surface cold front and a cyclonically curved upper-level jet streak (85 kts at 250 mb). Deep-layer ascent along an axis of modestly higher PW (around 1.1") should support a southeastward-advancing area of precip across Lower MI from late Wed night into Thu afternoon. Guidance suggests that surface dewpoints may climb into the mid/upper 50s F across much of the forecast area on Thu, supporting MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg. A localized severe t-storm risk may materialize on Thu, given 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts, but the expected marginal instability should limit the risk of organized severe t-storms overall. Chance PoPs (highest over SE counties) will be carried with this update. -- Fri into the weekend -- Farther ahead, ensemble means (EPS and GEFS) have trended toward a slower progression of some key features, including (1) a delayed exit of the upper low from New England, likely lingering through Sat, and (2) a slower progression of the upstream ridge axis across the central CONUS into central Canada. This ridge axis may persist upstream of Lower MI well into the weekend, reducing prospects for precip across the forecast area. PoPs have been delayed/reduced with this update, supported by trends in ensemble precip probs. Global models suggest that a blocky upper-air regime may emerge over eastern North America by early next week, but ensemble means still exhibit sizable run-to-run shifts in the placement of large-scale 500-mb height anomalies.
40’s and 50’s in Michigan for the middle of June wow to the wow … start a fire stay warm everyone INDY
Enjoying the longest days of the year with the lovely Fall temperatures and in 2 and half months September already wow to the wow!! INDY!
And winter ended almost three months ago. I can’t believe how fast time goes.
I love cool summers, esp after our snowy winter! Incredible!
It was indeed cold in much of the UP on Monday morning here are some of the temperatures for the UP IWD : Ironwood : 54 / 34 / 0.17 IMT : Iron Mountain : 62 / 33 / 0.00 MNM : Menominee : 61 / 40 / M CMX : Houghton Arpt : 53 / 45 / 0.27 P59 : Copper Harbor : 51 / 41 / 0.26 MQT : NWS Marquette : 50 / 36 / 0.02 P53 : Munising : 47 / 35 / 0.01 SAW : Marquette Sawyer : 52 / 32 / M ESC :… Read more »
It sure is a nice morning!
I was just thinking… we haven’t had a thunderstorm in a LONG time. I wouldn’t mind having a couple of (non-damaging) severe weather events, with a quick inch or two of rain. But I doubt that will be happening any time soon
“Some locally heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds would be possibly with any deeper convection around LAN and JXN eastward.”
I really shouldn’t get my hopes up, but these are desperate times.
Lessening chances of rain in the longer term. Imagine that.
“a slower progression of the upstream ridge axis across the central CONUS into central Canada. This ridge axis may persist upstream of Lower MI well into the weekend, reducing prospects for precip across the forecast area. PoPs have been delayed/reduced with this update”
The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 64/50. There was no rain fall, there was 30% of possible sunshine. There were 0 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s. It was one of the coolest maximums for any June 12th across the area. That high at GR was the 7th coolest for any June 12th At Muskegon the high of 62 was the 6th coolest at Holland their high of 62 was the 4th coolest and at Lansing the high of 63 was the 6th coolest for a very cool mid June day.
Slim
T’was a chilly day yesterday. Went out to mow last night wearing a t-shirt. Went back inside and donned a long-sleeved pullover.
The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 48. For today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 95 was set in 1894 and the record low of 39 was set in 1985. The record rain fall amount of 2.23” fell in 2005. Today should be the last really cool day with highs still in the 60’s there is a chance of showers today. The rest of the week will be warmer.
Slim