We have a more typical fall pattern of cloudy days for the beginning of October though temps remain on the warm side. The cold air remains in Siberia where temps are in the 20s and 30s we keep in mind what generally goes around comes around.
Much of the U.S. west of the Mississippi River remains in extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Michigan is in better shape though it has been fairly dry in the Lake Michigan counties, the thumb, and the northern U.P. I am thinking the dry slot depicted in Allegan County should extend further eastward especially along the Kalamazoo River valley area where I live.
Showers will begin moving in from the south to the north today beginning a wet period lasting through Friday. There are hints our temps may return to the normal of the 60s late next week.
Yesterday’s high temp was 69° and the low was 57°. We had less than a minute of sunshine which teased us through the cloud cover.
-- Chances for showers and a few storms at times into Saturday -- We will see the chances for showers and a few storms increase through this afternoon across the area from South to North. This increase will be the result of moisture being fed by a weak low level jet to the north of a warm front that is currently south of the area toward the Ohio River Valley. Much of this activity will be elevated in nature for much of the area, much of the day being north of the warm front. Some of this could become closer to surface based as the warm front moves over the area late this afternoon. Models are forecasting CAPEs approaching 1,000 J/kg being boosted by some diurnal heating, and dew points well into the 60s. The severe threat looks to be fairly limited as wind fields and resulting layer shear values will be on the lighter side. Can not rule out a stronger storm during peak heating with decent instability, so convection will have to be watched. Locally heavy rain would be a threat with precipitable water over 1.5 inches, and some hail will be possible with mid level lapse rates a tad over 6 C/km. We should see a trend down in coverage and strength after sunset tonight as we lose the diurnal heating, and the low level jet axis shifts north of the area. Coverage will once again ramp up on Friday with diurnal heating, and the fact that the upper low/wave will be moving right toward the area. Instability builds to 1,000+ J/kg once again, leading to thunderstorm potential. Once again however, upper level winds/shear are not really favorable for much severe weather. The upper wave will be slow to exit the area to the NE, leading to shower and storms chances to linger into Saturday. The better chances for showers and storms will be further NE in better proximity to the exiting upper wave. -- Next chance for showers/storms Late Monday-Tuesday -- Much, if not all of the area should remain dry on Sunday. The only place that could see a small chance of rain would be Central Lower. This will come via a developing warm front that will be lifting to the NE through the area. The forcing with this front via the core of the low level jet will stay mostly N/NW of the area. We will see mainly the warmer air that will be surging across the area. We will stay in the warmer and dry air through most of Monday, before showers and storms arrive Monday night. A cold front tries to move into the area, but stalls out to our west. A strong upper wave will then drive a sfc wave NNE along the front, helping to push it through the area. The best chance for rain will come Monday night, with a few lingering showers/storm holding in on Tuesday until the supporting upper wave moves through. -- Warmth continues next week ahead of another stronger system -- Even with a "cold front" moving through early Tuesday, we will not see a significant cool down yet. Temperatures will stay above average as the air is not all that cool behind the front. Warm air advection and an upper ridge quickly returns by Wednesday ahead of a strong storm moving into the Plains States. Right now, rain looks to hold off until just beyond this forecast period on next Thursday. This system will likely be the beginning of the end of this much above average period of temperatures.