Michigan Wx Michigan Wx

Rain Chances

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

To the left is the NAM total rainfall assumption through 18z on Friday.  On Sunday the models had more rain on the west side of the state – today not so much.  NWS plots are showing around a 40% chance in SE Allegan county with perhaps a quarter inch, chances increase to 65% on the eastern side around Detroit to under 1/2 inch.  Grand Rapids is around a 24% chance.  So our variances in model data are all over the place.

Currently there is a low pressure system tracking slowly northeast out of Missouri making the models unsure the direct path it will take or the strength of it once it gets here.

If it holds together it could track more westerly bringing more rain to the area or it could start falling apart bringing lesser amounts.  I guess the best bet will be wait and see what happens.  The next chance of rain will be Thursday with a cold front pushing through – at this point it appears the main threat of rain will be north of Grand Rapids.

We have a Bermuda high entrenched in the Atlantic so we will begin to see the warm and humid air returning for the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the 60s – I will have more on what a Bermuda high is on Thursday….

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast

22 thoughts on “Rain Chances”

  2. Not possible…a week or two back, Wood Weather stated “that’s it for 90 degrees for 2018”. So…90 is obviously is not going to happen.

  3. No there is not a heat wave on the horizon as some are clamoring! We may see 2 or 3 days up around 90 degrees and then a cool down! That is surely not a heat wave! The GR NWS is showing GR with ZERO 90 degree days this week! What a joke!

    1. A cool down in the 80s. Yep, that’s a real cool down. Actually, will still be above normal after this up coming Heat Wave. More 90s on the way to add to the tally !! Just face it, you were wrong once again. LMAO !!!

    3. WOOD has 4 days in the 90’s starting Saturday. Sounds like a heat wave to me.

  4. We’re home from Arkansas and Missouri. What a great time. It is so beautiful down there. Horribly hot for the 1st half of our vacation, but the 2nd half was perfect. It looks a little greener around here than when we left 11 days ago.

  5. July 2018 will be one of the warmest on record in parts of Michigan. With just one more day to go Sault Ste Marie with a mean of 70.2° is tied with 1955 for its 3rd warmest July on record with only 1921 and 2012 being warmer. Records have been kept at the Sault since 1888. At Alpena with one day to go they are having their 5th warmest July on record. Records there have been taken since 1917. While at Marquette just 165 miles to the west with its mean of 66.4° it is only the 52nd warmest July there. Here at Grand Rapids with the mean of 74.5° and at Lansing with a mean of 73.5° both locations are now at 21st warmest July. And at Muskegon with a mean of 73.5 they are in 10th place. Will update this tomorrow for the finial placing
    Slim

  6. 10am NWS update:There is increasing confidence that a convectively reinforced deformation
    band will pivot across southeastern Lower Michigan, perhaps as
    far northeast as Eaton, Calhoun, Ingham, and Jackson counties,
    after sunset tonight. As such, I continued the trend of
    increasing PoPs and I upped QPF quite a bit to right around three
    quarters of an inch across the far southeast. Realistically,
    storm total rainfall under the band may actually approach 1-2″
    overnight. At this time, it still looks like the heaviest will
    sneak just southeast of our area.
    …and for the record I agreed with Slim in regards to lack of 90 degree days and cooler last third of summer (keep in mind the days are getting shorter and the suns inclination is decreasing).

  7. C’mon Rock guy/gal, I told you not to say this. Now we are going to croak in the coming heat wave:

    ROCKY (Rockford)
    It will not get hot again! We are done with then 90’s! Mark it down and take it to the bank!

    REPLY8 days 19 hours ago
    Barry in Zeeland
    Barry in Zeeland
    There you go again, every time you say things like that, it only gets worse. You thought we were done with our hot 90 degree days back in May already, a dozen or so 90 degree days ago.

    REPLY8 days 18 hours ago

    1. Slim thought we could be done with 90’s for the summer too and kept saying his models were showing a cool August. Whoops!

      1. It has only been warmer than 93 in Grand Rapids two times on August 7th so highs that warm for that date are very rare. We shall see.
        Slim

  8. WOOD now has four consecutive 90 degree days in the 8-day! Heat Index going to 104 degrees.

  9. Good morning from Wisconsin had some rain with a little thunder yesterday afternoon with the daytime heating the trip from Chicago was long lots of road construction Wisconsin reminds me of Michigan lots of lakes and woods checking out next week we could be having another major heatwave.. well coffee time take care friends check in later..INDY

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