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Quiet Summer Day Ahead

Yesterday we had partly cloudy skies with a high of 83° and a low of 68°.  It is getting a bit dry here in Otsego, we have had only .17 of an inch of rain in the last 11 days.  Below is the graphic for Tuesday’s storms.

Severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening produced widespread damaging wind gusts across west central and south central lower Michigan. Numerous reports of downed trees, tree limbs, and power lines across the area. Several hundreds of thousands of people lost power statewide. There were numerous reports of peak wind gusts in the 55 to 70 mph range with isolated higher reports to near 75 mph in the Muskegon area.


We will continue today with a quiet and dry pattern with highs in the low to mid-80s with humidity still sticking around.  Tomorrow humidities and temperatures increase with marginal chances of severe weather.

Friday SPC


Weather History

1863: A hard freeze ends the growing season at many interior locations. Lansing falls to 26 degrees, the coldest ever recorded in August there.

1982: Cool air from Canada continues pouring in, with a record low of 38 degrees at Muskegon and 41 degrees at Grand Rapids.

On August 29, 2022, a strong squall line raced across the state, leaving widespread wind damage in its path. Gusts of 60 to 75 mph were common, and several gustnados were reported along the lead edge of the line in Cambridge Twp, Highland Twp, Putnam/Hamburg Twp, Richmond, and Fort Gratiot. These gustnados produced localized corridors of enhanced damage. In total, around 375,000 customers lost power due to these storms.

On August 29, 2021, temperatures soared to the upper 80s/lower 90s before a strong cold front moved across the region and brought a line of severe storms. This line produced isolated damaging wind gusts all across Southeast Michigan.

Radarscope Archive 8/29 storms

On August 29, 2008, 0.10 inches of rain fell on Detroit, one of only six days during the month that had light rainfall. That pushed the monthly total up to 0.27 inches making August 2008 the third driest August on record.

Also on August 29, 1982, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw set new record lows for the month of August. The temperature fell to a chilly 37 degrees in Flint and Saginaw and 38 degrees in Detroit.

Also on this day on 1979, one F0 and three F1 tornadoes were sighted over Monroe County between 6:45 pm and 7 pm.


NWS Forecast

Today
Patchy fog before 9 am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 84. East-northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Light and variable wind becoming southeast around 6 mph after midnight.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 7 to 10 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 61. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 82. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low of around 59.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 79.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 49.
Labor Day
Sunny, with a high near 74.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 77.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 80.

Forecast Discussion

- Humidity Sticking Around with Storms Possible Friday

High pressure over Quebec today is providing central Michigan with
somewhat drier air, though overall there won`t be much relief from
the seasonably warm and humid air especially for southern Michigan.
Morning low stratus (and a few areas of fog) are expected to
gradually mix out from southwest to northeast today, and it may take
well into the afternoon for central Mich to become mostly sunny.

The upper level ridge axis will pass east of the area tonight, and
our weather Friday will become influenced by broad troughing well to
the south of a robust low over Manitoba/northwest Ontario. Within a
narrow surface warm sector, a line of storms developing over
Minnesota/Iowa Thursday afternoon should reach West Michigan around
daybreak Friday, however, should be weakening among less impressive
dynamics and also more meager midlevel lapse rates yielding less
CAPE. Latest short-term guidance is bringing higher dewpoint air
into the whole area for Friday and also suggesting I-94 makes a run
at 90 degrees assuming morning showers/storms a quick to dissipate.
Mid/late afternoon redevelopment of storms is possible near and east
of Battle Creek/Lansing with the cold front. MLCAPE may reach
1000-1500 J/kg there with 0-3 km shear 25-30 knots. These
afternoon thunderstorms would have the better chance of being
severe with isolated strong wind gusts.

- Mainly Dry Weather from Friday night through Next Wednesday

Friday`s cold front will be clearing to the east Friday night. Some
lingering showers and thunderstorms are certainly expected in the
evening, but overnight we should dry out with the loss of daytime
heating and the fact the front is progressing south and east of the
area. MUCAPE values begin to dwindle quickly between 03Z and 09Z
with the clearing front.

Mainly dry weather is then expected from Saturday through next
Wednesday as surface ridging will dominate the area weather. An
expansive high will be spread across the entire Great Lakes region
from Sunday night through Wednesday. Very limited moisture is seen
in BUFKIT overviews through the depth of the atmosphere. Yesterday
we thought a cold front on Sunday would bring a few showers, but in
tonight`s model runs the moisture is evening more meager and chances
for showers have been pulled from the forecast. So, outside of
Friday evening we are looking at another fairly long period of dry
weather. Friday is really the only chance for decent rain in the 7
day forecast.

- Temperatures Cool Behind Friday`s and Sunday`s Cold Fronts

We will progressively cool from Friday night into Monday as two cold
fronts move through the area (Friday and Sunday). The warmest day of
the period will certainly be Friday. After that we see 850mb
temperatures drop from +19C on Friday to +7C on Monday. Afternoon
highs on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s. Normal highs
for today are around 80, so we will be 5-10 degrees below normal.
newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring on the nice Fall temps! What a summer! Below normal temps! Who would have thought?

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Just mowed and mulched up all the fallen twigs and leaves from the storm. I’m a sweaty mess. It is very humid out.