Happy Easter to all, the celebration of Christians all over the world. One could not ask for a better day for getting out to church and family activities. My wife and I will be getting our second Covid shot at the end of the week so we might consider venturing out into the larger world in a couple of weeks. We did have the kids and grandkids over yesterday with everyone outside of course – it has been since last September we had everyone over.
This is the beginning of a fairly warm week though the weather pattern is looking more unsettled. I have been debating getting the spring fertilizer down on the lawn and am leaning towards its application with the hints of precip increasing for a good portion of the week now.
This will be a warm week with highs near 70° and our first rumblings of thunder may be around the area tomorrow and tomorrow night.
--Warm and dry today-- Pleasant weather expected today as surface ridging settles in behind a weak west-east oriented sfc frontal boundary which stalls near the MI/IN border. The air mass remains quite dry and once deeper mixing develops this afternoon we should see relative humidities dropping to 15-25 percent. Fortunately winds will be much lighter than on Sat so fire danger not as much of a concern. Mainly just some high cloudiness riding along the flat upper ridge today so a mostly sunny fcst should work for most areas, but clouds may thicken up north of I-96 this afternoon. 70 degrees is definitely in reach where sunshine prevails today, even for the lakeshore given a southeasterly low level flow. --Showers and storms late tonight and Monday-- Decent moisture advection around 850 mb occurs late tonight and Monday via a 25-30kt southwesterly low level jet stretching from the Srn Plains northeastward toward srn WI/wrn Lwr MI. Elevated mixed layer also overspreads the region from the west, with mid level lapse rates of 8 C/KM arriving late tonight. CAMs are indicating that a cluster of elevated showers and thunderstorms will develop over ern WI and central Lk MI around 5 am Monday morning then move southeast across srn Lwr MI during the daybreak period. Highest potential for some locally heavy downpours during the morning commute per latest HREF guidance is in a relatively narrow corridor near and south of I-96. Additional clusters of elevated showers and storms may impact the area on Monday with warm front remaining situated over the area. --Upper low brings late week rain-- After Monday, the coverage/potential for showers and tstms should decrease somewhat as an upper ridge begins to build/amplify ahead of the deepening trough/upper low coming across the Rockies. However the frontal boundary will still be in the area so low chc/isolated pops will still be needed. Potential exists for Wednesday to be a very warm and mostly dry day when upper ridging is most pronounced and H8 temps approach 12C. If we see enough sunshine on Wednesday, highs could be in the upr 70s. The big closed upper low begins to impact the area on Thursday as it moves into Iowa. First band of showers associated with this system spreads in from the south/southwest and may have some locally heavy rainfall/tstms with it. This feature moves very slowly and will likely be affecting MI weather for several days into next weekend with occasional showers and tstms.