Partly Sunny – Rain Chances 3/27

Yesterday, we had a high of 52.5° and a morning low of 22°. This morning ° at 6:30, the temperature is 26 °.   A passing shower cannot be ruled out today otherwise we’ll see partly sunny skies with temperatures in the low to mid-50s. Tomorrow we will see our rain chances increase with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.   An active frontal boundary will set up across Michigan over the weekend, bringing rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. A sharp temperature contrast will exist across the front, with temperatures ranging from the 30s and 40s in northern Michigan to near 70 south.

Weather History

1991: A tornado outbreak hits the Midwest, wreaking havoc from Iowa to Ohio. In Michigan, at least seven tornadoes strike. Eighteen people were injured in Calhoun County as eight homes were destroyed there.

Forecast Discussion

- Moderating Trend Through Sunday

A moderating trend of temps will occur beginning today as we
transition to a south to sw flow warm air advection regime. High
temps today will reach the low to mid 50s and high temps will
reach the 60s across our southern fcst area Friday through Sunday.
However it will be considerably cooler across our far northern
fcst area Friday through much of the weekend in closer proximity
to a quasi stationary frontal boundary across that area.

- Several Chances For Rain And Storms Friday - Sunday

The south to southwest flow will gradually advect more moisture
into our area. Isolated light rain showers will develop later
today but most of the day will be dry.

The first better chance for rain and some convection will come
Friday as elevated instability ramps up to the north of the warm
front with h8 li/s falling to -1 to -2 across much of our area.
Forcing on the nose of a 35 to 40 kt llj will also aid in
convective development. Severe wx is not expected but stronger
elevated storms may contain small hail.

Rain and perhaps a few storms will focus mainly near to north of
the quasi stationary frontal boundary across our northern fcst
area Saturday. However a few waa showers are possible across the
rest of our area too although much of the day should be dry. This
is also a very tricky fcst in terms of frontal position as I would
not be surprised if the front sags a little further south
Saturday given the high pressure ridge further north of the Lake
Superior region and much colder denser air in place across
northern MI. In this scenario it would be possible that some mixed
pcpn could impact our far northern fcst area Saturday into Sunday.

A fairly strong low pressure system will then move ene into our
area late Sunday and bring rain and potential for convection.
The convective potential remains largely contingent on how much
instability will develop this far north. A few stronger storms are
possible across our southern to se fcst area which has potential
for relatively strongest instability to develop. However
considerable uncertainty still exists in terms of timing and exact
track of this system.

- Rain Changing To Snow Before Ending Sunday Night - Monday

A light wintery mix of pcpnn will transition to light snow before
ending Monday morning on the back side of this system. It will
turn much colder early next week with high temps Monday only in
the 30s and then upper 30s to lower 40s for Tuesday.

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