Back on this day October 12, 2006, the earliest snowfall of 1” or better when 2.0” fell at Grand Rapids. There was also over 1” of snow at Flint with 2.3” and Lansing 1.5” the next earliest snowfall of 1” or better was on October 19,1989. Here is a complete list of years when there was a snowfall of 1” or better in October. 2006, 1997, 1992, 1989, 1987, 1976, 1967, 1962. 1925, 1923, 1917, and 1906. The biggest October snowstorm was on October 27, 1967, when 8.2” of snow fell. On October 19, 1989, 4.5” fell and 1.5” more fell the next day. On October 28, 1925, 3.5” fell. Of the years with the biggest snowfalls of October the winter season there were 2 with below average snow fall and two with above average snowfall. As for 2006/07 there was not another snowfall of 1” or better until December 1st of that year. That winter November, December and January all had below average snowfall. February, March and April had above average snowfall the winter season ended up with 83.3”
Yesterday was a very warm sunny day with the official H/L of 79/43 there was no rainfall the sun was out 94% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 63/43 the record high of 84 was set in 1930 the coldest high was 38 in 2006 the record low of 27 was set in 1957 and 1987 the warmest low of 66 was set in 1928. The most snow fall of 2.0” fell in 2006 the most rainfall of 1.52” fell in 1901. Last year the H/L was 29/43.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH LATER TODAY AND EVENING
– SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
– COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2024
– BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH LATER TODAY AND EVENING
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE AREA TO START TODAY OUT. WE ARE
LOOKING AT THE WEATHER BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED STARTING LATER TODAY.
RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS MADE IT DOWN INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INDIANA, ILLINOIS, AND OHIO. THIS COLD FRONT WAS MOSTLY DRY AS IT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF A SHORT WAVE UP THAT WAY.
EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS DRY NOW, IT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH THE RRQ OF A JET STREAK TO OUR
NNE, AND GENERAL UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A JET STREAK TO OUR NW.
THIS IS GOING TO DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONT, AND MOVE IT EAST
THROUGH INDIANA AND OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE WILL SEE A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF IT, EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT THE I-96 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL
BE SOME ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT, JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE THE FURTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. THIS ALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
LEAVING A FEW HOURS OF SOME DRY CONDITIONS.
– SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SUNDAY WILL START OUT QUIET ONCE AGAIN, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS PERIOD OF RAIN
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST RIGHT TOWARDS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW
WILL HAVE THE POLAR JET AXIS WITH IT. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WITH STRONG FORCING PROVIDING A
DIRECT HIT.
THEN, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL START OUT FROM THE
FORCING WITH THE LOW, AND TRANSITION TO BEING UNDER THE COLD POOL
ALOFT, WITH A SIGNIFICANT BOOST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CONVECTION.
MU CAPES SHOULD BE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, WITH
OVER 1,000 POSSIBLE WITH THE LAKE MODIFIED PARCEL PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. LAKE-850 MB DELTA T’S ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20C,
WHICH IS QUITE ROBUST. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MIGRATE CLOSER
TO THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
– COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK
THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR
NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW WRAPS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY RIDGING AND
A WARMING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS MON-TUE
WILL KEEP MOST LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS CONFINED CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A PASSING LIGHT SHOWER INLAND. THE COLDEST AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS LIKELY TO FLOW THROUGH ON TUESDAY, KEEPING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, INCLUDING DOWN INTO
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THE MORNINGS OF TUE,
WED, AND THU.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tonight
A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. East wind 6 to 8 mph.
Sunday
Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Showers, mainly before 2am. Low around 40. North wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Columbus Day
A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. North wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
A 30 percent chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Yay!! Rain!!!!
DISCUSSION…Elevated convection has recently intensified over southern Lake Michigan, after earlier producing small hail over southeast WI. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will allow a plume of MUCAPE to expand east-northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with MUCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. While this magnitude of MUCAPE is not overly supportive of large hail, sufficient effective shear will continue to support storm organization, with small to briefly severe hail and locally gusty winds possible as storms continue to move eastward into early evening.
…Thunderstorms with hail tracking toward Southern Lower
Michigan…
Thunderstorms over Southeast Wisconsin and southern Lake Michigan at
4 PM will track east into Southern Lower Michigan after 5 PM,
impacting locations near and south of Interstate 96 this evening.
These storms have a history of hail up to dime sized in Wisconsin.
Dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and locally heavy
downpours can also be expected.