Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month I see nothing but sunshine with no rain in the forecast all week. Temps will be in the 70s a bit above normal for this time of year however we won’t have many complaints in that department.
Looking at the corn and soybean crops around the area they appear to be ready for harvest as they are well dried out in the field with all the sunshine and warm temperatures we have had.
Our high temp yesterday was 67° with a morning low of 50°.
With all the dry stretches of weather, a lot of the leaves have fallen off the trees brownish and not autumn-like. Generally, the maples have begun to turn but they seem to be struggling this year to produce color. We have a lot of black walnut trees around our property and they have been dropping walnuts like crazy this year. The last time I saw walnut production like this we had a snowy winter – just saying, no promises though.
As the season progresses, lakeshore communities know that autumn gales will occasionally whip up the Great Lakes. Fortunately, Lake Michigan and Huron (hydrologically a single lake) levels have fallen 14 inches from a year ago, and a full 20 inches from their July 2020 peak. That’s good news from the standpoint of shore erosion/flooding. Still, levels are 16 inches higher than the long-term September average.
Forecast Discussion
- Predominantly dry forecast through next week Most of West Michigan will likely stay dry through the next week, but there are a few things that could bring spotty precipitation to parts of the area the next few days. A warm front will lift into Lower Michigan today, while a weak shortwave and associated pool of mid-level moisture drop through Northern/Central Lower Michigan. FGEN response may be strong enough to try to generate a few showers across Mid-Michigan (more towards Reed City, Clare), but chances will be low with forecast soundings showing a lot of dry air in the low levels that will first need to be overcome. Hi- res models lend support to this idea, and any returns that do pop up on radar may end up as virga or sprinkles. The forecast is currently dry Monday into Monday night when a weak cold front is expected to drop through the area. Moisture again looks limited per 26.00Z models, but will continue to watch for increased moisture depth in later forecast soundings before we can justify adding POPs. If we do end up with enough moisture, we could see a few thunderstorms as models show SB CAPE values building as high as 800 J/kg. From Tuesday into at least early next weekend, global models remain consistent with a very amplified pattern setting up over the CONUS and place an upper ridge over the Great Lakes. Confidence is higher with dry weather through this period as opposed to early this week. Occasional model runs try to drop shortwave energy down from Canada and into Michigan either Friday or next weekend, but confidence with timing, and even occurrence, with this is low at this time. - Temperatures above normal through late next week Southwest flow will boost temperatures again today into Monday, pushing them back above normal. Slightly cooler temperatures (at least in a relative sense) are expected Tuesday behind the passage of a weak cold front, but readings will remain above normal. In general, high temperatures near/south of I-96 will be in the mid to upper 70s through late week, and in the low 70s across Central Michigan. We may see temperatures near I-94 make a run at 80 on Monday though as southwest flow increases. For reference, normal high temperatures for late September/early October are 69-70 in Grand Rapids and normal lows are in the upper 40s.
The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 47. At this time it is sunny and 62 here. On my daily walk there are several oak trees and this year there are a ton of acorns falling off of them that along with MVs walnuts that could be a sign. According to old winter folklore “Lots of acorns and walnuts in the fall also indicate a cold winter ahead.” so I guess we can put that in the winter guess for the upcoming winter.
Slim