After a long dry spell, we took a big chunk out of our rain deficit yesterday. We had 1.02 inches which brings us to 1.85 inches for the month most of it falling this week. Yesterday’s high temp was 56.5° and a low of 46°. We currently have 46° at 7:30.
We have the promise of warmer temps today with plenty of sunshine before showers move back into the area this evening and overnight. We may also see a few thunderstorms near and west of US 131. After that, another long period of dry weather is in the forecast.
-Dry, breezy, and much warmer today; rain tonight Upper low over Lake Huron departs this morning taking the clouds and the few remaining showers with it. Mostly sunny skies with milder high temps in the lower 70s to prevail with brief period of shortwave ridging, although gusty winds to near 25 mph from the west-southwest develop by late morning. Recent upwelling of cold water in the nearshore waters (water temps in the 40s now) should result in colder high temps for lakeshore communities today. Another upper low/shortwave drops in from the northwest tonight and sends a sfc cold front through the area. Models have been very consistent in showing widespread rain amounts around of one half inch as the front comes through so categorical pops are the way to go tonight. Instability is generally lacking so support for thunder not high. The exception is along the Lake Michigan shoreline where influx of warmth/moisture off the lake may lead to a better chance of storms. Even though our nearshore waters are chilly, water temps are still in the mid to upr 60s over the majority of the lake and the southwest flow will send that warmer water back in our direction. Models have 500-1000 J/KG of MUCape over the lake and along the coast north of Holland 00Z-06Z, but it tails off rapidly after that, with less then 500 J/KG progged for inland areas. A period of gusty winds may accompany the showers. -Mainly dry weekend with seasonal temperatures Rain clears the eastern section of the CWFA very early Saturday with the cold frontal passage, then cooler/breezy conditions expected with highs in the mid 60s. The NAM is much farther south with the upper low and cold pool Sat afternoon and evening and is generating scattered showers over much of the area between 18Z and 06Z Sunday. (Even a suggestion of thunder along the lakeshore) Most other guidance keeps the area dry so will not go with the more aggressive NAM, but it is something to watch. We can probably at least count on some cloudiness/sprinkles dropping south across the area north of I-96 in the afternoon/evening on Saturday. Dry weather expected Sunday with upper low/trough positioned to our northeast, but northwest flow aloft and incoming warmer air will support some cloudiness. A partly sunny day with highs in lower 70s. The H8 warm front overhead and a final shortwave dropping through the northwest flow may support a few showers on Sunday nigh per the ECMWF. -Dry with above normal temperatures most of next week Ensemble guidance remains fairly consistent on a lengthy dry pattern with persistent ridging/dry air settling in for next week. Temperatures expected to run at least 5-10 degrees above normal.