We have 43° at 5 a.m. here in Otsego. We have some giant old-growth black walnut trees bordering our property which have been consistently dropping their walnuts from high above and could be deadly if one should be hit by one. We seem to have a bumper crop this year.
Today temperatures will become a bit milder, and mostly dry conditions can be expected through most of Wednesday before more unsettled weather moves back into the area with chances of rain through Saturday.
Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 17th:
1910: A category 4 hurricane moved north-northeast, passing just east of the Dry Tortugas. The maximum storm surge observed in Key West was 8 feet, with 15-foot waves at what is now Fort Zachary Taylor State Park.
The image above is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Key West, Florida.
1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town.
Forecast Discussion
- Mostly Cloudy Today, Chance for a Sprinkle/Light Shower GOES-E nighttime microphysics imagery reveals an expansion in coverage of stratus across the region. There is also a band of lake effect clouds over east central Lake Michigan that will begin moving eastward, corresponding with WSW flow developing in the low levels. In the 1500-3000 ft layer, the NAM 3km and HRRR show some weak lift present. Perhaps a sprinkle or light shower could materialize as the lake clouds advect off the water this morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, dry and mostly cloudy conditions are expected for the region. - Thickening Clouds Wednesday With Late Day Showers A solid 500 mb shortwave moves into the Midwest by Wednesday. Low level warm air advection ahead of this feature (850 mb temps reaching 6-7C) will help boost temperatures to around 60 or the low 60s, making for one of the warmer days of the last couple weeks. While mid level RH will be on the increase, lower level RH (ie. 925-700mb) will take longer to do so, not until Wednesday night. As such, any rain during the day Wednesday would be light and confined to areas west of US 131 late in the afternoon. Heavier showers won`t arrive until Wednesday night. - Unsettled/Showery Pattern Thursday through Saturday Good model consistency regarding the next upper trough/shortwave which arrives on Thursday. High likelihood for a band of showers arrives Wednesday night, associated with the warm front/occlusion preceding the upper low. High pops for showers continuing on Thursday as the upper low moves overhead and a few tstms with small hail possible with H5 cold pool around -20C and sfc LI/s near zero in place. This could be augmented by some enhancement from Lk MI as well with southwest flow occurring although delta Ts will be only around 10C. Another potent looking shortwave drops in for Friday night and Saturday which should enhance shower coverage and intensity once again, although there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing/track of this second wave. Pops decreasing Saturday night into Sunday as upper low shifts east and cyclogenesis occurs over New England. Only issue by that time should be brisk northerly winds and most lake effect showers should be near the coast or just offshore. - Pattern Change Next Week A big pattern shift is shown for next week as troughing develops over the wrn CONUS and heights rise over the ern CONUS. H8 temps as warm as 15C arrive in deep southwesterly flow which could send temps up near 70 by the middle of next week. This incoming warmth should eventually be accompanied by occasional convection as shortwaves ride northeast out of the base of the wrn trough.
Below normal temps rule! What an incredible pattern!
INDY is going with a 111 inches of snowfall for my area this Winter with a cool Summer and a cold Fall already we are well on thee way!! Let it snow let it snow let it snow….INDY
Yes the cool pattern has been locked in for months? Let’s hope for 111 inches of snow but my prediction is between 80 to 90 inches! Bring it!!
Looks like the leaves should be looking nice for the next 1-2+ weeks. We have no big freeze or wind events that I can see, and color is just starting to look good.
Longer range models have it slightly cool this week, mild next week, and then possibly chilly around Halloween. We shall see
Hers comes more below temp days! Absolutely incredible!
Holy smokes, the sun has made an appearance here. I almost forgot what she looked like. Welcome back, oh beautiful, life-giving orb!
70 degrees next week? Here comes more heat!
Here comes more Mokkieee 😂 INDY
Last night was a flop on low temps. Forecast was for 37 in this area but only got down to 43 at my house. Still waiting on the true widespread frosty morning.
While I would not put much stock into it here are a couple of old winter lore sayings “Acorns … that fall heavily means a cold winter is coming. Similarly, a large crop of walnuts means a snowy, cold season. Thick nutshells predict a severe winter.”
“Much rain in October, Much wind in December.”
Slim
Those all sound good to me and the Farmers Almanc would agree!
The official H/L yesterday was 52/43 there was no rain or snow fall. The day had 17 HDD’s and the sun was out just 2% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is now down to 60/42 the record high of 84 was set in 1947 the record low of 22 was set in 1972. The most rain fall of 1.91” fell in 1905. The record snow fall of a trace fell in 9 years the last time was last year. The H/L last year was 46/38 with 0.52” of rain along with that reported trace of snow… Read more »