Back on. At this time the snow as let up and there is some light rain falling. I now have the driveway cleared and and eating breakfast. Have a great day.
After last weekends “Winter Storm Not!” note I gave the event the name “Not!” I thought I would do a report on something that we generally do not think about happening in the center of the United States. And that is earthquakes. While a quake on the New Madrid fault would not necessary cause much damage here in Michigan there is a good chance that we could feel it none the less. Below is information from the St. Charles, MO website.
The New Madrid Fault extends approximately 120 miles southward from the area of Charleston, Missouri, and Cairo, Illinois, through Mew Madrid and Caruthersville, following Interstate 55 to Blytheville, then to Marked Tree Arkansas. It crosses 5 state lines and cuts across the Mississippi River in 3 places and the Ohio River in 2 places. The fault system in the New Madrid Zone is poorly understood and studying it poses some unique challenges. In the central U.S., fault features are not expressed at the surface. They are covered by 100-200 feet of soil.
Unlike the West Coast where major quake activity is more predictable based on measured movement at tectonic plate boundaries, New Madrid is located near the center of the North American Plate. The crust in the central U.S. is being deformed / strained slowly in contrast to conditions in the west. What has been learned in studies there may not apply here.
Another contrast is due to a difference in geological characteristics. The harder, colder, drier, less fractured crust in the central U.S generates greater shaking over larger areas than quakes of comparable magnitude in the west. Shake and damage areas are up to 20 times larger than similar West Coast quakes.
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. The likelihood or probability can be calculated from patterns of recurrence in the past. Based on evidence of quake activity found in geological features, scientists estimate that the average interval between magnitude 7.0 quakes or greater is approximately 500 years. This is more frequent than expected.
The USGS has projected that for an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 to 8.0, the probability for occurrence is approximately 7-10% over the next 50 years. For a quake of 6.0 to 7.0, the probability is 28-46% over the next 50 years.
To date, the earthquakes of 1811-1812 remain 1 of the most remarkable seismic events in history. On the USGS list of the 20 largest earthquakes in all 50 United States, the 3 main shocks are ranked #18, 19, and 20 (Alaska dominates the top of the list). On the list for the continental 48 states, the New Madrid main shocks are ranked #5, 6, and 7.
Apparently, “New Madrid” sized events have occurred before 1811. Evidence of similar activity has been found, dated around 900 A.D., and again in 1450 A.D. Current research has indicated large quake activity going back at least 5,000 years. Damaging quakes have occurred in the New Madrid Zone since then. Two of the strongest include a magnitude 6.0 on January 4, 1843 centered near Marked Tree, Arkansas, and aThe Charleston quake, the strongest since 1811, damaged every building in the commercial area of Charleston. Cairo, Illinois, and Memphis, Tennessee, also suffered significant damage. Near Charleston, 4 acres of ground sank and a lake was formed. It was felt over all or portions of 23 states and at some places in Canada. And was strong enough to cause damage even here in Michigan.
What many refer to as the Great New Madrid Earthquake, was actually a seismic event made up of 3 major quakes, followed by thousands of aftershocks, ranging from strong damaging quakes and diminishing to weaker quakes that lasted for years after the main shocks. The 3 main shocks were estimated at magnitudes 7.7, 7.5, and 7.7. As there were no seismograph stations in the region at that time, magnitude estimates vary widely (from 7.7 to 8.1) based on interpretation of journal accounts, damage reports, and descriptions of effects from that time.
The main shocks were felt as far away as the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and Quebec. The area of damage is estimated at 600,000 square kilometers; the quakes were felt over an area of approximately 5,000,000 square kilometers. The area of strong shaking was approximately 10 times that of the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake.
Slim
As the second wave of precipitation exits early this afternoon,
conditions will take a turn for the worse as temperatures plummet,
strong westerly winds barge into Lower Michigan, and the LES
machine roars to life. By sunset, temperatures should be at or
below freezing across all of western Lower Michigan with the lower
20s expected by early Sunday morning. Such falling temperatures
will allow for wet roadways to refreeze and become hazardous. Wind
gusts upstream across Iowa and Illinois are just a hint of what`s
to come, with the 12Z suite of guidance continuing to support a
period of similar winds across central and souther Lower Michigan
from evening onward. The strongest winds will likely occur from
say 6 PM to 10 PM where gusts may exceed 50 mph. Combined with the
LES (which could be robust given tall moisture depths and
increasingly favorable over water instability), considerable
blowing snow and occasional white out conditions are possible
especially after dark. Travel is not advised tonight! Snow
accumulations through 7 AM Sunday should range from 1 to 6 inches
Temperatures will rapidly fall this evening, and winds will gust to 45 mph from the west. Road surfaces will likely start out wet and may quickly freeze if untreated. Snow showers will be fairly frequent overnight, especially near and west of U.S. 131. Several inches of additional accumulation will be possible by the lakeshore. Visibility will be poor at times in snow and blowing snow. Wind chills tonight and Sunday will be from near zero to 10 above zero.
Two facts this morning!
1. We got hammered with lake snow last night 3 to 4 new inches of snow!
2. We are well above compared to last years snowfall to date! This despite the incessant warm weather hype! Who knew?
Keep it rocking!
Looks like there is about 3″ of new snow tonight. The current temperature here is 24 with snow and some blowing snow.
Slim
Just drove in from Alpine Ave to Ada. All roads snow covered and slick. Snow is staying well ahead of the plows. Blowing snow…not “white out” where I was.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR with some yellow on radar very heavy snow falling NWS blew this one …..2 weeks in a roll lol….Roads are terrible stay home if you can ….INDY!!
Same here. This evening the conditions deteriorated fast. Great night to stay home and off the roads.
What a storm! Blizzard conditions! Who would have thought? This is ending up as a monster storm! Time to get the sleds out and the cross country skies! The next few days will be incredible for winter sports! What a winter!
+10000 INDY
What a storm and more cold and snow is on the way! Incredible!
We ended up with almost 5”. Much of it melted this afternoon with the rain and above freezing temps.
From the NWS: As the second wave of precipitation exits early this afternoon, conditions will take a turn for the worse as temperatures plummet, strong westerly winds barge into Lower Michigan, and the LES machine roars to life. By sunset, temperatures should be at or below freezing across all of western Lower Michigan with the lower 20s expected by early Sunday morning. Such falling temperatures will allow for wet roadways to refreeze and become hazardous. Wind gusts upstream across Iowa and Illinois are just a hint of what`s to come, with the 12Z suite of guidance continuing to support a… Read more »
Wow, could be blizzard conditions! Who would have thought?
Temps are now falling and rain changing back to snow.
Finished blowing out 5 driveways – the neighbors don’t have blowers. Luckily I have a high horsepower dual-stage, still had to run it in first gear because it was so heavy…
My snowfall measurements averaged 4 inches, this was after being compressed with rain.
Today’s high was 37.2, currently 34.3, low was 24.6
I cleared the driveway earlier before the snow got wet and used the snowblower. At that time I had 5.8″ of snow on the driveway. The plow came thru (I was surprised as in the past it generally took 2 to 3 days before the plow came thru) anyway the snow at the end of the drive was very wet and heavy. At this time it is getting windy and 34.
Slim
The snow plow now has came thru and I just did the driveway at the end. Boy that snow is now wet and heavy. I mean heavy. It is now 35 here off and on periods of wet snow.
Slim
Just drove home from work and now it is pouring out. Won’t even have to do much to the driveway because it’s melting faster than it came down. Temp still going up, now 37.
I do not know about your place but here NW of GR the snow is now compacted down to about 4″ of very wet heavy slop that will be as hard as a rock when it freezes.
Slim
There was 2 to 3 inches of slop on the driveway, but it was way to heavy for our snowblower. Ended up using the lawn mower which I have a plow for to push it off, and even the mower was struggling at times. Had to do it with a rain coat on which was kind of odd.
6.5 inches of snow and still snowing out at thee YARDofBRICKS NE of GR NWS was wrong on the warmth here no rain what a storm many more inches of snow to go bring on the lake effect Back to the Sprites .Have a great Snowy Saturday …INDY ..
About 4 inches here, but now we are getting a pretty steady rain with the temp up to 36 so it has already compacted to about half that. What a slop! Good call with just the advisory, no warnings needed. Let it rain let it rain let it rain!
Finally going to have to dust off the old snowblower! Hasn’t been used in years! Hopefully there are no animals living in it!
especially possums 🙂
I see why they call this heart attack snow. My kids abandoned their electronics and actually went outside. Just about gave me a heart attack. LOL
now is the time to get the slop cleared out of the driveways, decks, porches, etc… flash freeze tonight will make is harder to move… 33 degrees here now with a dry slot moving in
I have 4″ in the driveway.
Been up since 4:30. Wife clucking that driveway needs clearing for 1st born to get to work in Holland. I state easy exit from driveway with his fwd car. 8:29a.m : son works very hard at running over snow sticks and getting stuck. He succeeds at both. Wife standing in garage in robe drinking hot coffee, laughing at her pathetic men.
LOL 🙂