We should have a period of drying out over the week, possibly through the rest of the month as very little rain or snow is forecasted looking at the model data. We may see a little snow north through Gaylord and north into the U.P..
A relatively quiet period is expected into mid week as no major weather system are forecast to affect the area. We may see a bit of light rain on Tuesday along and ahead of a cold frontal passage. In its wake Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning a bit of lake effect snow will occur. Little to no snow accumulation is expected however.
We will see highs both today and on Tuesday in the 40s. Temperatures will tumble again behind the Tuesday cold front with high on Wednesday only forecast to reach the 30s. The Thanksgiving outlooks is for good travel weather across Southwest Lower Michigan with dry weather and high temperatures around 40.
The analog based models are guessing at a colder trend coming after Christmas into January and February which may be our coldest/snowiest part of winter. The colder trend may last into March and early April next year. These of course are just guesses but this is going to be what I will stick with for my winter forecast. The way things are panning out thus far though I wouldn’t be surprised if this zonal pattern we are in now hangs on right through the winter, but the models I have been using have been pretty consistent over the past month showing we will have a winter as we get into the new year.
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For the rest of this week precipitation will be mostly toward the end of the long term as high pressure will be moving across the state during the middle of the week. Both the gfs and ecmwf are in pretty good agreement with the track and strength of low pressure as it crosses southern Ontario Friday.
The trailing cold front will get some support aloft via a short wave as it moves across northern Lower. Highest pops will be Friday evening just ahead of the cold front and across the northern cwa. This is basically a rain event, although a few wet snowflakes may mix in over the far northeastern cwa late Friday night and Saturday morning.
Behind the front, another shot of cold air will flow south. However, the system looks similar to the one that just moved through a couple of days ago. H8 temps fall to around -12c and moisture is shallow. We include low chc pops for snow showers…mostly over the western cwa, but we don`t expect much out of this system Saturday afternoon and night.
So, though we won’t have snow on the ground to track deer in the south lower peninsula the weather will be much better than last week for you hunters out there.
With it now looking mild (or at least near average) for the next two weeks or so one has to wonder where have we heard that “true winter” is just around the corner. Wait I know it is the same as we heard the last two winters. While it very well may turn very cold and snowy as we head into winter there is no guarantee that will happen. I would think after what happened last winter that long range guessers would put a (*) at the end of that guess.
Slim
Milder this week and continued dry… looks like we’re starting off the snow season with below average snow. Then again, these shorter winters seem to be the trend lately.
Could this be the 3rd mild winter in a row? Stay tuned.
slim
Once winter hits it is going to a wild ride. The RDB model shows the cold and snow setting in by the end of December!!
Well if I had to put money on either you or the long term pattern we’ve been in, sorry, but I’m going all in on the long t rm pattern.
I can understand your views however the pattern is changing as we speak! Many people are ignoring the fact that the current month of November will end up with below normal temps and that trend will continue all winter long! Combine that with CPC winter outlook or above normal precep and bingo SNOW galore!
That is a good argument but in the last 3 years we have not yet has 2 months in a row of below average temperatures. While November is below average temperate wise one odd fact is this is one of the coldest Novembers with this little snow fall one would have to go back to 1907 to find a November this cold with this little snow fall.
Slim
No major snow until the end of December you say? That would be incredibly late compared to average!