Mostly Cloudy Today

Yesterday we had a high temperature of 49.5° and a low of  43° with cloudy skies.

Look for mostly cloudy skies today. There may be a few light rain showers or pockets of drizzle towards Lake Michigan. Highs today will be in the lower to middle 50s with a light northwest wind of 5 to 15 mph.

Weather History

1933: Michigan is in the grip of a four-day cold snap. The low of 10 degrees at Grand Rapids only rises to 18 degrees during the afternoon as lake effect snow showers swirl around and an icy northwest wind makes it feel even colder.

On November 15, 2018, a low-pressure system brought a rain and snow mix to far eastern Southeast Michigan while all snow occurred elsewhere. Snowfall totals of around 4.5 inches were observed in the Tri-Cities area while a general 1 to 3 inches fell elsewhere.

On November 15, 2005, a third powerful storm hit the area in just a week and a half during November 2005, leading to yet another round of strong winds. The cold front pushed through during the evening, leading to another period of strong winds, occurring through the early morning hours of November 16. Southwest winds were sustained at 25 to 35 mph, gusting to around 50 mph, except in Huron County, where wind gusts were estimated near 60 mph. Trees were downed along the lakeshore from Caseville to Grindstone City. Heavy rains also occurred across the region, and the combination of winds and rain led to property damage estimated at 7.2 million dollars. One man was killed (indirect) and another injured (indirect) in a vehicle collision caused by a tree that had fallen into the road in Northern Oakland County due to the strong gusty winds.

On November 15, 2001, a mid-month storm brought winds of 40 and 50 mph and the most rain in a day for the month, nearly 2.30″ in the Detroit area.

Also, on November 15, 1997, low pressure tracked across Michigan, bringing light snow to most of Southern Lower Michigan, with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches. However, cold north and northeast winds off of the relatively warmer waters of Lake Huron enhanced the snowfall amounts in eastern Sanilac and northeast St. Clair Counties, where accumulations were generally 4 to 8 inches. Port Sanilac received 8 inches of snowfall, but Sheriff Departments reported localized areas of eastern Sanilac County received up to 12 inches.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Lingering Low Clouds

Extensive stratus blankets several states east of the Mississippi
River early this morning, which is approximately where the sfc
ridge axis is located. Even where skies are currently clear
across MN/IA/MO there are more low clouds and fog forming/filling
back in west of the main area of stratus.

A cloudy forecast looks to be the way to go today since we remain
east of the sfc ridge axis and models keep the low level moisture
locked in under the subsidence inversion. If any breaks in the
clouds manage to form tonight we should just see those pockets
fill back in with stratus or fog due to a lack of wind under the
sfc high.

Low clouds and areas of fog expected to linger into the first
half of Saturday then should begin to scour out Saturday afternoon
with the passage of the sfc ridge to the east. Increasing
southeast winds on the back side of the ridge leads to a better
likelihood of mixing some drier air down to the sfc. However high
clouds will be spilling in from the west so overall prospects for
sunshine appear limited Saturday.

- Weak cold front swings through Sunday and Sunday night

A weak cold front is still forecast by the consensus of models to
move into the area on Sunday and stall across Southern Lower
Michigan Sunday night. The front will be moisture limited and as
such will not produce much in the way of precipitation. If fact, WPC
is producing no precipitation across the Southwest Quarter of Lower
Michigan. We still feel with the upper shortwave nearby to the north
on Sunday and a trough moving through Sunday night, some light pops
are warranted. We have 20-30 pct pops in the forecast for these
periods for the most part. The moisture is a bit disjointed in the
low levels with much of the 5,000-10,000 foot layer dry. So, this
may be more of a drizzle event or a very light rain.

- More active pattern sets up from the middle of next week

The focus of the longer term portion of the 7 day forecast is
squarely on the middle of next week. This reason for this is a bit
of a pattern change. The evolution of the pattern is starting to
converge on a solution where both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means
are indicating a shortwave lifting out of the desert southwest
lifting north into the plains and phasing with an upper trough
moving out of the Rockies. This evolution occurs on Monday and
Tuesday off to our west with an upper low then moving through the
Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday.

As for the details we will be on the east side of the system on
Monday and Tuesday so any precipitation will be rain. The upper low
almost traverses directly overhead on Wednesday and Thursday
bringing addition chances for rain. The GFS has slightly colder air
in place for Wednesday night into Thursday night, but essentially
just on the threshold for lake effect snow. At this point our going
forecast is for all rain through Thursday given the coldest air with
the upper low pivots by to our south. The middle of next week looks
to be cloudy with occasional rain showers.