Plenty of sunshine is expected today. This will help boost temperatures to the low 40s for most locations. A light mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain will move through the area late tonight. Impacts to travel will be brief, especially as temperatures warm above freezing Saturday morning.
Here is another item in my educational series that discusses the differences between weather and climate:WeatherAndClimate
- Freezing fog concerns this morning, then sunshine High pressure situated near the Indiana/Ohio border is providing clear skies and light winds across the area. This will allow areas of freezing fog to form through mid morning, some dense. Most locations will only see patches of freezing fog, with the highest confidence in shallow, transient patches developing closer to the low center near/south of the I-94 corridor. Further north, specifically near/north of Muskegon and west of US-131, warm moist southwest flow off the lake may allow a more widespread area of freezing fog to fill in under a shallow inversion. This will be the area we need to watch the most as we head through the morning. Where freezing fog does form, ice may deposit on roads and create slick spots. Any fog will dissipate in the mid-morning as southerly winds increase ahead of an approaching trough. Plenty of sunshine will be seen this afternoon and early this evening before we start to feel the impacts from this trough, however. After another cold start to the day, temperatures will warm to the upper 30s to low 40s. - Light mix of precipitation late tonight into Saturday morning Longwave trough now developing from the Western U.S. to the Midwest will bring a few shots of precipitation to our area through early next week. The first will be late tonight into Saturday morning as the first chunk of energy embedded within the trough crosses Lower Michigan. We are not expecting significant amounts of precipitation from this system, as it will cross quickly over the area. Dry air in place through this evening should be overcome fairly quickly as 30-40 knot low-level jet punches up into the area after midnight. Strong warm air advection tied to this feature will also cause a period of warming temperatures at the surface overnight, especially for areas near/south of I-96. This will help change precipitation type there to rain after an initial burst of snow or even light sleet/freezing rain. Locations north of I-96 will be colder as precipitation arrives, and will have the best chance for slushy snow accumulations (around an inch or less) before a changeover to a mix of rain/snow/freezing just before sunrise. Precipitation is expected to taper off by around 7 AM as forcing pushes east and drier air moves in. Temperatures even north of I-96 will warm to above freezing by mid-morning, reducing the time frozen precipitation can have an impact on travel. - Mixed precipitation again Saturday night and Sunday, turning windy Next upper wave will affect the area Saturday night through Sunday. Models have trended stronger with the shortwave from 24 hours ago, and now show a pretty decent deepening of the surface wave as it crosses northern Michigan. This system will again pass quickly through the area, and with a lack of deep layer moisture, rain/snow/freezing rain amounts look light. Light precipitation should begin Saturday night within an area of isentropic ascent and strong warm air advection preceding the low. Rain is currently expected for areas north of I-96, while precipitation north of I-96 looks to start as snow, then possibly mix with freezing rain or sleet before changing to all rain Sunday morning. Models are not in the best agreement with the timing of a strong cold front on Sunday, which affects when the high temperature for the day will be reached. This is not to say that we cannot reach highs in the mid 40s to near 50 in the late morning or early afternoon though. Forecast soundings show very strong warm air advection and great mixing, which could support this. Windy conditions are also expected to develop near/behind the front, with latest GFS forecast soundings showing we could mix into 40 mph gusts across the area. Will wait for a better idea on frontal timing before we get too detailed with the wind gust forecast though.