We had a couple of brief showers yesterday with a meager .03 of an inch which brings us to 4.09 inches for the month. The wet weather has made it hard to rake or mulch the leaves around the yard. We have several walnut trees which have been shedding. I generally use the yard tractor to grind them to mulch.
We have another mainly cloudy day in store with scattered rain showers around the area. Tomorrow will be the best day for outside activities before the rain moves back in for the rest of the week into early next week.
SW Michigan Forecast
U.S.A and Global Events for October 10th:
1780: The Great Hurricane of 1780 made landfall on the island of Barbados on this day with estimated wind gusts of 200 mph. This hurricane went on to affect the islands of St. Vincent, where only 14 of 600 homes stood at Kings Town. St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Puerto Rico were all impacted by this hurricane. This storm is the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record, with between 20,000 and 22,000 deaths. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Above are estimated Hurricane tracks of 1780.
1846: A major hurricane, likely a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West Lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor.
The image above is from a tweet by the NWS Office in Key West, Florida.
1949: A rapidly deepening area of low pressure produced gale to hurricane-force winds across much of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and the Dakotas. Sustained 1-minute winds reached 85 mph at Rochester, MN, and 79 mph at La Crosse, WI, during the early afternoon. Winds gusts were as high as 100 mph. This storm produced extensive damage to buildings and power lines. Also, many corn crops were flattened. Click HERE for more information from Minnesota’s Department of National Resources.
The monthly climate data for Sioux Falls, South Dakota is courtesy of NCEI.gov.
The monthly climate data for Minneapolis, Minnesota is courtesy of NCEI.gov.
1970: A slow-moving tropical depression produced 41.68 inches of rain in Jayuya, Puerto Rico from October 2-10th, 1970. Click HERE for more information from the Weather Prediction Center.
2009: Nome, Alaska, experiences its first-ever October thunderstorm with five lightning strikes between 8 and 9 PM ADT.
The Local Climatological Data above is courtesy of NCEI.gov.
Forecast Discussion
The large upper level low situated over SE Ontario will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the near to mid term period. The strong gradient produced by this system will keep gusty winds this afternoon. Along with this quasi stationary low will be bands of moisture through the mid levels which should filter again through southern lower bringing a chance for showers this afternoon and evening. Overall QPF will be sparse with at most a tenth of an inch. Any light rain will end Tuesday evening into early Wednesday with breaks in the clouds Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be below normal today and tomorrow with the northwesterly flow bringing cooler air. Highs will try to make it into the mid to upper 50s tomorrow Bottom line up front...the long term period looks to be quite wet with precipitation chances each 12hr forecast period between Wednesday night and next Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year for the latter half of the work week and then trend cooler than normal over the weekend into early next week. WPC QPF amounts over the next 7 days remain in the 1.50 to 3.00 inch range. Very little has changed in the long term period of the forecast with the upper low currently overhead pulling away early in the period (Wednesday Night). For a short time we have upper ridging in place from Thursday into Thursday night. That is quickly replaced though with an upper low moving into and through the area Friday through Saturday. During the rest of the long term troughing remains in place aloft in the wake of the departing upper low. Down at the surface the main features to key on are a warm front moving our direction from the south Wednesday night through Thursday night. Deep surface low pressure moves through the area during the same time frame as the upper low...Friday through Saturday. A persistent north flow then sets up for Saturday night through next Tuesday. Thursday through Saturday continue to look like a very wet period as PWAT values increase to 1.3 inches. Sounding climatology shows that for Oct 13-14...the 75th percentile value in Southern Lower Michigan is 0.86, 90th percentile 1.14, Max = 1.53. Obviously anomalous moisture will be in place with the end of the week system with strong dynamics as well. Therefore, the rainfall totals via WPC look reasonable. Rises on area rivers could certainly reach bankfull if not make a run towards minor flood stage at a couple locations.
Feels more like mid-November than mid-October today. Leaves are still pretty green… I’m predicting (might be wrong!) a peak closer to October 20th this year for inland areas, probably a week later for the lakeshore
Definitely November weather! Cloudy, windy and temps in the forties! This explains why the warm weather fanatics are MIA! Incredible!
Wow, one below normal temp day after another! It just keeps rocking!
Wow, October thunderstorm in Nome Alaska in October.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 54/40. There were 18 HDD’s The sun was out 52% of the possible time. The peak wind gust was 35 MPH out of the W. The overnight low so far has been 46. And that is the current reading. For today the average H/L is 63/44 the record high of 85 was set in 1949 the record low of 26 was set in 1956. The record rain fall amount of 1.44” fell in 1914. The record snow fall of a trace was in 2012 and 1989. Last year the H/L was 67/39.
Slim