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More Rain to Come

We managed .19 of an inch of rain yesterday the majority of it coming mainly after 6 pm.  Our high temperature was 65°.  Clouds this morning will decrease, leaving partly to mostly sunny skies for much of the day. Temperatures will stay cool; normal highs are in the mid–upper 70s. Chances for rain showers are in the forecast for Tuesday.


U.S.A and Global Events for June 12th:

1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of “Heytman,” a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, and the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles.

1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. Click HERE for a detailed report from the USGS.


Grand Rapids Forecast

6 12 grr

Lansing Forecast

6 12 lan

Kalamazoo Forecast

6 12 kzo

Forecast Discussion

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Deeper moisture and measurable rain has exited the region to the
east although some patchy drizzle was still occurring with the low
ceilings lingering south and east of GRR. This too should end
this morning although clouds may linger well into the afternoon
due to the brisk cyclonic flow that is in place.

Best potential for any appreciable clearing in the afternoon is
near and west of Highway 131 where the cool/stable marine air
pouring in from Lk MI on northwest winds will promote a lake
shadow and hold back diurnal cumulus formation underneath the
upper low. The air mass is too dry today to support any afternoon
showers east of the lake shadow. Highs today will be about 10
degrees below normal; in the mid to upper 60s.

Main focus tonight and Tuesday will be on the trowal airstream
wrapping/curling around the upper low. This area of deeper
moisture/showers travels westward across Lake Superior and upr MI
this morning then drops southward through WI this afternoon.
Tonight the showers turn southeast then east, eventually curling
into srn lwr MI mainly south of I-96 late.

Areas near/north of I-96 remain in a "doughnut hole" of drier air
late tonight and Tuesday directly under the upper low center, and
HREF PMM QPF amounts range from only trace amounts north of I-96
to as much as one half inch along the I-94 corridor. Can`t rule
out a rumble or two of thunder on Tuesday afternoon, but the
primary risk looks to be south and east of the GRR CWFA per RAP
MUCape progs.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

-- Chance of showers Wed night and Thu, mainly SE --

Models continue to indicate that the remnant mid/upper low will
depart eastward on Wed, to be followed by a period of northwest flow
aloft. A midlevel vort max diving southeastward from Ontario is then
expected to approach the region on Thu. Lift ahead of this impulse
should be sufficient to support precip in parts of the region.
However, deterministic solutions continue to exhibit some run-to-run
waffling in precip placement, and this uncertainty is borne out by
the large ensemble spread in precip amounts. Some guidance indicates
modest surface-based instability across portions of the forecast
area on Thu, suggesting that t-storms are possible.

-- Chances of showers/t-storms from Fri night into Sun --

EPS and GEFS means suggest that a mid/upper ridge axis will progress
eastward through the region on Fri. Within the zonal flow behind
this ridge, a shortwave trough and associated vort max may approach
the region on Fri night or Sat, perhaps accompanied by a modest
surface low (as in the 00z deterministic ECMWF solution). Chance
PoPs will be carried from Fri night into Sun, supported by overall
ensemble probs through this timeframe.
newest oldest
INDY
INDY

Temperatures in the 50’s today for the middle of June great scotty love it!! Fall is in the air …INDY

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Feels like mid-October. No complaints from me!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Same here. 62 and cloudy here. It’s a welcome reprieve from all the sun and heat we’ve had this spring. I’ll mow tonight without needing to take multiple breaks to hydrate.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Locked into a cool pattern and no heat waves are in sight! I love cool summers! Wow, just wow!

Sherry
Sherry

I recorded 0.26 of rain here in Comstock Park. Not much but looks like more than a lot of areas.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Well we managed to finally get it to rain, however, it was not much. At my house I’d say less than a tenth of an inch. Hopefully we get much more soon. There are more rain chances out there but not counting on a big rain as total qpf was scaled back significantly in the period we are in now. We shall see.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Not much here either. It lightly sprinkled all afternoon.

Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.
Jim in Cooper Twp., Kazoo Co.

I recorded 0.01 inches here in northern Kazoo County. Guessing we’re approaching record territory for lack of rain. It’s now been 5 weeks since a real measurable rainfall.

Slim

While not a lot we finally did get some rain yesterday. The official amount at Grand Rapids was just 0.11”, at Muskegon a reported 0.18” fell, at Holland it was 0.15” and at Lansing it was 0.14”. Here in MBY I had a little bit more as I recorded 0.21” of rain fall. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 67/54 there was no sunshine there were 4 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s
Slim

Slim

The current temperature and overnight low here in MBT is 51. For today the average H/L is 79/58, The record high of 96 was set in 1901 and the record low of 38 was set in 1903 the record rain fall amount of 1.89” fell in 1996. Today and Tuesday look to be rather cool with a chance of some showers. Up to Sunday temperatures look to be warmer with on and off chances of showers.
Slim