I deleted several comments last night that had no bearing on the weather, let’s keep the comments weather-related, please. This is not a political forum. No matter how bad things seem we have several news agencies to keep us informed on what else is happening in the world.
Yesterday we had a high of 85° with dewpoints in the 70s. In Otsego, we had .30 of an inch of rain yesterday morning. We have had half of an inch of rain so far this morning. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees with humid conditions today. The heat and humidity will fuel rounds of showers and thunderstorms through tonight, some of which could be strong or severe with damaging winds.
Another round of storms is expected tonight, some of which may be severe with damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1863: It was a frosty morning with temperatures falling to the 30s across much of Michigan. The low of 31 degrees is the coldest ever recorded in July at Lansing by a full five degrees.
1961: A heavy downpour hits Grand Rapids, with 0.41 inches of rain falling in 15 minutes.
1985: A tornado touched down in the northeast section of Lansing and damaged 18 buildings as it moved to three miles north of Webberville in Ingham County.
1987: It was the coolest July day on record at Grand Rapids, with a high of only 58 degrees. Clouds and rain kept temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s during the day after morning lows in the mid-40s.
On July 15, 2010, severe thunderstorms moved through most of Southeast Michigan. There were 32 severe weather reports including a measured 71 mph wind gust near Davison and wind damage consistent with winds up to 80 mph in Flushing. Most of the reports were wind gusts and associated wind damage, but there were a few isolated large hail reports.
Also on July 15, 1988, this would mark the last day of a 23-day dry spell in Southeast Lower Michigan. There was a total of only 0.04 inches of rainfall during those 23 days.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers and storms move off to the east this morning A very long lived mesoscale convective vort is moving through the forecast area this morning. This vort was formed last night in the northern plains and it reinvigorated convection yesterday evening on the Mississippi near the IA/WI line. It has not produced severe weather in our area, but it has produced flooding and a lot of lightning. We remain concerned about flooding in the Lansing metro area early this morning as the ground there has been saturated from recent rains and this activity has been producing 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates. We do have areal Flood Advisories and Warnings that carry into the 800am to 1000am time frame. Flooding should recede fairly quickly this morning as it is more urban and small stream related. The showers and storms will likely clear to the east out of the GRR forecast towards 12z. In the wake of this activity we expect some clouds to linger much of the morning over at least half the forecast area from near and just north of I-96 southward. This will put a lid on how much heat we see today as the clouds do not clear out until towards midday. - Another round of strong/severe storms this evening/tonight The next focus is on our next round of thunderstorms which could be strong to severe. The HREF 4 hour max reflectivity which does well most of the time shows a surge of convection moving in after 800pm. It sweeps through the forecast area between 800pm and 600am. This round looks to hit many of the same areas as the current round (near and south of I-96). There is a signal for some severe weather in the same area given quite a few updraft helicity swaths moving through the area. MUCAPE values hit 2000-3000 j/kg along with 30-40 knots of deep layer shear so we will be monitoring once again for severe weather. We are in a slight risk from the SPC for the southwest half of the area (MKG to GRR to LAN) and points to the south. Can envision the slight line being bumped a bit north today, possibly up towards Alma to include points south down U.S. 127. - Mainly dry after Tuesday The front will progress south on Tuesday as an upper trough settles into the area. We have chance pops for showers in the forecast across the south on Tuesday. We may see some scattered showers on Wednesday with the upper trough, otherwise much of the rest of the week looks dry with high pressure settling in.
Very loud thunder!! Lots of lightning!!! Pouring out. Two nights in a row. Not much sleep.
Seeing lightning…
Another long night. Let’s keep the storm damage to a minimum please.
Especially with all this saturated soil. Not a good combo.
Something to watch is if this line segment really starts to bow out sometimes they can move more to the south rather than east. Not saying it will happen here but something to watch.
Tornado watch for lower …Allegan and Kazoo in it
In looking at current radar trends it looks like most if not all of the severe weather will be to the south of the
Grand Rapids metro area. At the current time it is sunny here in MBY with a temperature of 84 and a DP of 72 that DP is down from the 75 that is was a while ago.
Slim
I am not so sure. Some of this activity will build to the North and GR may just see some of the storms and will definitely see more rain! Mark it down!
That’s a significant bump to the north as compared to earlier this morning.
.UPDATE… Issued at 1113 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Much of the Grand River basin saw 1 to 2 inches of rain overnight and many of the smaller streams are elevated. Another round of storms with heavy rain are anticipated tonight. Runoff will be efficient. As a result, we issued a flood watch for the region near and south of I-96, from Muskegon to Lansing. Also, river levels are elevated, especially around Jackson. The added rainfall tonight could push them up to near flood stage. As for the severe weather tonight, there has been a slight northward shift of… Read more »
Updated Day 1 outlook from SPC
Quite the lightning show last night. I was up for a while… a bit tired today but definitely enjoyed listening to the storm!
…FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT… * WHAT…Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE…Portions of south central, southwest, and west central Michigan, including the following counties, in south central Michigan, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Ionia and Jackson. In southwest Michigan, Allegan, Barry, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa and Van Buren. In west central Michigan, Muskegon. * WHEN…From 9 PM EDT this evening through late tonight. * IMPACTS…Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS… – The recent heavy rain has saturated the… Read more »
Could not sleep due to every room in the house flashing with light. The lightning involved with last night’s system was overwhelming.
Rain is now starting to fade. I bet we received an inch or more since 3a. With the cloudy/wet start of the day, I’m not sure if we will reach the upper 80s today.
MV (and Slim), thank you for providing this forum to discuss all things weather-related. We have an eclectic group here, all bound by the fascination and appreciation of atmospheric events.
There was a rather nice thunderstorm last night and it came with a lot of rain. Here in MBY I recorded 1.72” of rainfall. The overnight low here was 67 and the current reading is 70 with cloudy skies.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/69 there was 0.04” of rainfall before midnight. The highest wind gust was 32MPH out of the SW. The sun was out 56% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 95 was set in 1995,2006 and 2013 the coldest high of just 58 was set in 1987. The record low of 47 was set in 1987 with that cold high of 58 that made for a very cool July day. The record rainfall of 2.17” fell in 1995.
Slim
During the middle of the night it was quite a storm. Lots of lightning with some very close lightning and loud thunder.
Yet another predawn storm this morning. This was a dandy. More heavy rain and nearly continuous lightning. Trees down and several hundred power outages in the Lansing area.
There was a good amount of lightning with the storm overnight here and there was some wind and a lot of rain here in my yard 1.72″
Slim
That’s a bunch of water! I still have not bought a new rain gauge. I really need to.
Looks like we may get another round of storms overnight tonight.