More Clouds – Weather History

We added another 1.5 inches of snow to our total for the winter yesterday.  We have had 5.2 inches for December and 13.1 inches since November 1st.  We are 12 inches above what we had last year at this time.  We have 32° at 4 am this morning.  Yesterday’s high was 34° the low was 29°.
We may see some patchy fog before noon today. Otherwise, we will see cloudy skies, with high temps in the mid-30s. South winds 5 to 11 mph will blow becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.  We may see some light snow overnight from Grand Rapids to the south though it will amount to less than an inch in most areas.

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Weather History for SW Michigan

December 26

1985: Muskegon sets a daily snowfall record of 14.4 inches during a long stretch of snowy weather. The monthly total for December is 57 inches.

2001: A foot of lake effect snow piles up at Grand Rapids as a week-long snow blitz drops about 4 feet of snow at Grand Rapids.

December 27

1959: Southerly winds bring mild weather with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s.

1993: Temperatures plunge below zero, beginning a long stretch of arctic weather that will continue through much of January.

December 28

1982: Temperatures hit 61 degrees at Lansing, Grand Rapids and Muskegon as a spell of very mild weather continued during one of the warmest winters on record.

2000: Arctic air and deep snow cover combine to produce record low temperatures across Lower Michigan. Records include 5 below zero at Muskegon, 9 below zero at Grand Rapids and 18 below zero at Lansing.

December 29

1880: Arctic air puts Lower Michigan in the deep freeze. Lansing falls to 15 below zero after a low of 17 below zero the day before. The high temperature of 1 above zero on this day is the coldest maximum temperature on record for the month of December at Lansing.

1984: Temperatures reach record highs for the second day in a row at Grand Rapids and Lansing. Amazingly, the record high of 65 degrees at Grand Rapids is set just after midnight. A cold front moves through in the morning and temperatures fall into the 30s during the afternoon.

December 30

1976: Temperatures fall to record lows across Lower Michigan. At Lansing, the thermometer plunges to 17 below zero. It hits 11 below at Grand Rapids and Muskegon. The low at Muskegon sets the record for the month of December, which will be broken the very next day with a low of 15 below.

2000: Lansing picked up another 2.4 inches of snow, bringing the monthly total to over 33 inches and making December 2000 the snowiest December on record.

December 31

1875: The year ends on a remarkably balmy note. At Lansing, the high temperature of 70 degrees is the highest ever recorded in the month of December.

1976: One of the coldest Decembers on record ends with a second consecutive day of record lows across Lower Michigan. The temperature falls to 15 below zero at Muskegon, a record low for the date and for the entire month of December.

January 1

1876: The year begins during a three day spell of record warmth. Lansing hits 65 degrees, after setting a record of 70 degrees the day before.

1964: Arctic air sets record lows across Lower Michigan on this New Years Day. The temperature falls to 15 below zero at Grand Rapids and Muskegon hits 9 below.

1985: A severe ice storm struck southern Lower Michigan as a layer of ice up to one inch thick downed tree limbs and power lines. There were three deaths and eight injuries directly related to the ice storm. Over 430,000 electrical customers were without power, some for as long as 10 days. Total damage was estimated at nearly $50 million.

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Weather History for SE Michigan

December 26

On December 26, 2016, Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw set record highs of 57, 56, and 54 respectively.

Also on December 26, 2012, a large Gulf low lifted northeast along the Appalachian Mountains and clipped southeast Michigan bringing a widespread accumulating snowfall to the area. By the following morning, 4″ to 7″ had accumulated across the southeast half of the area, with higher amounts of 14″ in Lakeport and 11.1″ in Port Huron. Detroit and Flint measured storm total accumulations of 6.2″ and 5″ respectively. Further northwest, Saginaw received a glancing blow and measured only 1.5″.

Also on December 26, 1914, the overnight temperature plummeted to -12 degrees in Saginaw, which is 30 degrees below the average overnight temperature!

December 27

On December 27, 1904, there was a maximum temperature of 56 degrees in Detroit between 3 and 4pm that fell steadily to a minimum of 18 by midnight.

December 28

On December 28, 2008, a rapidly intensifying storm system moved across Lake Michigan to the Straits area. This storm brought wind gusts up to 60 mph to all of Southeast Michigan, and wind gusts up over 70 mph to Lakes Huron, Erie and St. Clair. Numerous trees, limbs and power lines were down. In all, about 300,000 customers in Southeast Michigan lost power during the height of the winds.

Also on December 28, 1880, the daytime temperature rose to only 4 degrees in Detroit, which is 29 degrees below average!

December 29

On December 29, 1998, 0.1 inch of snow fell at Detroit. While this light snowfall is not usually a significant event at the end of December, this was the first measurable snowfall for the 1998-1999 winter season, making this date the latest first measurable snowfall of any winter season.

Also on December 29, 1880, the daytime temperature rose to only -3 degrees in Detroit. This is the second coldest maximum temperature for any day in Detroit!

December 30

On December 30, 1971, Detroit recorded the greatest amount of precipitation in 24 hours for the year. The recorded measurement was 1.37 inches.

December 31

On December 31, 2015, the high temperature reached 36, 34, and 33 in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw respectively. Although typical for December, they were chilly compared to the rest of the month. Fueled by a particularly strong el Nino and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream, the monthly average temperature for December 2015 came out to 41.1, 40.0, and 39.1 degrees, making it the warmest December on record for all SE Michigan climate sites.

Also on December 31, 1974, this marks the end of the snowiest December on record in Detroit. A total of 34.9″ of snowfall fell during the month, which is 23.8″ above average!

January 1

On January 1, 1876, the new year was a nice welcome for Detroit when it came in with a record high temperature of 65 degrees.

Also on January 1, 2008, a snowy start to the new year when a compact, but potent winter storm hit southeast Michigan. Detroit received 4 inches of snow, and Saginaw only had 2 to 3 inches, but in between a heavy band of snow left 8 to 16 inches. Storm totals included 8.6 in Flint, 10.5 in Ann Arbor, 12 in Brighton, 13.2 in White Lake, and 16 inches in Clarkston, Lake Orion, Dryden and Capac!

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Forecast Discussion

- Some freezing drizzle this morning -

We have lost mid level moisture this morning, which has allowed
the dendritic growth zone to become unsaturated. Lift continues in
the low level moisture and without ice crystals it is resulting
in drizzle/freezing drizzle. This is not an issue for areas south
of Grand Rapids and Lansing as temperatures are slightly above
freezing. Further north there is some light snow occurring per the
obs at Ludington, Big Rapids, Mt Pleasant and Alma. It is the zone
from near the I-96 corridor into southern portions of Central
Lower Michigan where some freezing drizzle is occurring and may
persist. Southerly winds are bringing in warmer air this morning
ahead of a cold front that is approaching Lake Michigan from the
west (WI/IL). Given the fact that temperatures should warm to
above freezing by 900am across the Ottawa and Muskegon rows of
counties we will hold off on a very short term freezing drizzle
threat. We will issue a SPS discussing the potential for short
duration slippery travel this morning and highlight it in the HWO
and a social media post as well.

- Streak of light snow across Southern Lower tonight -

A shortwave currently emerging into the Southern Plains early this
morning will race northeast and slide through the Southern Great
Lakes region tonight. The southern half of the forecast area, I-96
to the south will be in a zone of isentropic lift for about 6
hours. It seems like this is the third such bout of snow in a row
produced by the same mechanism. Any accumulating tonight will be
very light on the order of a half inch or less.

- Weekend snow beginning to come into focus -

The ECMWF still seems like the way to go in terms of operational
models to follow. The GFS has had much more variability with the
weekend system, while the ECMWF has been fairly locked in. We now
have some fairly good consistency though which is starting to
increase confidence in the weekend event.

The upper evolution is somewhat complicated in that a shortwave
dives deep into the Western U.S. trough and actually goes south of
the U.S. / Mexico border on Friday. This lead wave shears out into
Saturday moving into the Ohio Valley. There is not one low to key
on here and if there is, its probably not this first shortwave.
The focus is really on the main upper trough moving our direction
from the Plains on Saturday. The upper trough induces a secondary
low that tracks in a favorable location across Indiana lifting
northeast into Ohio. In terms of sensible weather it appears we
are looking at a solid 3-6 inch swath of snow across Southwest
Lower Michigan with the potential for 6+ especially via the ECWMF.
Way to early to nail down location, but it appears central (I-96)
and north (U.S. 10) are probably the most favored locations for
the heavier snow. Given the upper pattern develops over the next
few days we still have quite a bit of play in the forecast. By
Thursday night into Friday we will have a better idea of location
and even p-type as the south will be mixy at the onset given warm
air aloft. Suffice it to say though, this could potentially be the
first heavy swath of snow for much of the forecast area this
winter season.