Yesterday was a quiet day on the blog which isn’t hard to believe with pleasant weather and the holiday in play. Our high was 81.5° and the low was 54° with partly cloudy skies in Otsego. We currently have 60° at 5:30 this morning. However, the rain situation is grim, with brown lawns present throughout the Otsego/Plainwell area and crops in unirrigated fields withering.
This week may present us with a change of venue in the weather department with multiple chances of much-needed rain. Dewpoints will be on the rise tomorrow. Allegan and Barry Counties have been missing the rain as it has moved to the north and south through the second half of June. Our last meaningful rain was on June 14 when 1.07 inches fell.
Today will be similar to yesterday with sunny skies with temps in the mid-80s. The CPC has us in the marginal threat for storms tomorrow with a slight risk to the west. Keep in mind this may change one way or the other so we will keep our eyes on it. I am not sure if the rain will hold off in some areas for fireworks tomorrow night.
July 4 Convective Outlook
...Midwest/Great Lakes... A mid-level anticyclone should remain centered over the Southeast Monday, with upper ridging extending northward over much of the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will likely be present along/south of a weak front that will extend from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Most guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing across parts of the Midwest Monday morning. This activity should be aided by modest low-level warm advection and a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation. An isolated threat for hail and strong/gusty winds may persist with this convection as it spreads generally eastward Monday morning. In the wake of the morning convection, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and overall coverage of severe thunderstorms across the Midwest Monday afternoon/evening. Mid-level heights are forecast to remain generally neutral or even rise slightly downstream of the upper ridge over the northern/central Plains. Mid-level temperatures are also expected to modestly increase. Still, even with these potentially limiting factors, moderate to strong instability will likely develop along/south of a front and outflow from the morning convection. If additional thunderstorms can develop, they would probably become severe fairly quickly given the favorable thermodynamic environment and moderate to strong effective bulk shear also present. The primary question is where these robust thunderstorms and possibly a small bowing cluster may develop late Monday afternoon and evening, as large-scale ascent will remain nebulous. Even so, have introduced a Slight Risk for damaging winds and large hail from southeastern MN/eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL, where there is a somewhat better signal in guidance for thunderstorm redevelopment, potentially associated with another weak mid-level perturbation. But, this remains a fairly low-confidence forecast, and adjustments to the spatial extent of the Slight Risk may be needed as mesoscale details become clearer.
Forecast Discussion
-- Today -- Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep today rain-free. Temperatures will be just a bit warmer than Saturday though still near normal, and dew points/humidity remain on the comfortable side. -- Independence Day -- Warm air advection increases Independence Day/Monday amid southwesterly low-level flow. Dew points will climb into the 60s, trending more humid especially later in the day. Confidence in the rain/storm forecast for Monday afternoon into the night is elusive. Some models are developing a complex of thunderstorms over Neb/Iowa/Minn Sunday night which would track into Michigan mid-late afternoon. It would encounter flatter mid- upper level lapse rates and weaker/shallower instability, so some weakening is likely. Whether rain or storms would hold together enough to disrupt outdoor activities in the afternoon or evening is still in question. Secondary development of strong to severe storms over WI/IL seems more likely late Mon evening into the night with a strengthening low-level jet and steepening mid-level lapse rates, but how far north or south this development occurs is also still in question. There is a marginal risk of severe wind gusts, hail, and excessive rainfall with Monday night`s storms. -- Midweek -- There may be one or two additional chances for storms between Tuesday and Thursday as subtle shortwaves move through the upper level flow on the northern periphery of the subtropical high which will be centered over the southern US. As is typical of summer ring-of-fire MCS patterns in the northern US, confidence in the details of when/where/how much is low, as it often depends on the previous day`s events upstream. Fortunately, the dome of much hotter than normal temperatures should stay southwest of Michigan.
Going to be poolside this afternoon! Looks like a fantastic day on tap. Glad we have our pool. Trips out to the lake are cut back due to higher gas prices so it’s nice to have an alternative.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 84/56 there was no rain fall and there was 83% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY the overnight low was 59 and that is the current temperature with clear skies. The low so far at GRR was 60. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 97 happened in 1921,1949, and 1966 the record low of 43 was in 1968. The next few days look to continue to have very typical summer like conditions with warm days and mild nights. The only change is that there looks to be a better chance of some much-needed rain on Monday night. Not sure of the timing of the rain but there is a chance that some fireworks events could be impacted.
Slim
Also of note is that at 3:10 AM tomorrow morning the Earth will be at Aphelion. At aphelion the Earth is the farthest from the sun. This year the distance is 94,509,598 miles. Come January 4th 2023 the Earth will be the closest to the sun at 91,403,039 miles
Slim
I hope the fireworks all get rained out! Fireworks are a total waste of money, bad for wildlife/pets and disrupt sleep for people that need to get up early for work! Bring on the heavy rain around 9:30 pm through 2 am, that would be perfect!
Just think the Earth is the farthest away from the sun now and is the closest on January 4th just think if it was the other way around. Summer could be hotter and winters could be colder.
Slim
We shot off our money well spent fireworks last night and had a great time! I don’t care if it rains at my house we had our fun last night!
To each their own, but I say a total waste of money! About the only thing worse is cigarette smoking!
That could be a problem!