For us, the weather will remain calm and dry with sunny conditions continuing. The dry weather pattern will continue into Friday. Frost and freezing conditions will become possible tonight and more so Wednesday night. The potential for showers will increase starting Friday night. Cool and showery weather is expected for Sunday through Monday. Yesterday we had a high of 68° and the low was 41°.
Milton
According to meteorologists, Milton will be a devasting category 4 hurricane when it hits Florida’s west coast with much of the state affected.
The Weather Prediction Center has increased the rainfall threat for Wednesday to a rare “high” risk, or a level 4 of 4. The center is warning that “widespread and numerous instances of flash flooding are expected with life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding probable.”
Flood watches remain for nearly 20 million people across Florida, and over 5 million are under storm surge alerts.
Weather History
1871: The worst wildfires in the history of the Great Lakes region occur as strong south winds combine with tinder-dry conditions. The fires leveled several areas of Michigan and Wisconsin, including the cities of Peshtigo, Holland, Manistee, and Port Huron. At least 1200 people died, about half of them in the Peshtigo, Wisconsin fire. That same night, the Great Chicago Fire erupted, destroying much of the city.
On October 8, 2007, the fourth day of early October heat brought record highs to Southeast Michigan. Detroit and Saginaw reached 90, and Flint was 88, all of which were records. It was the latest recorded 90-degree day in the history of both Detroit and Saginaw as well.
Also on October 8, 2001, Flint hit a record low of 25 degrees.
Also on October 8, 2000, an unusual early October cold blast brought one of the earliest snowfalls on record to southeast Michigan. Wet snowflakes fell in Flint on both the 7th and 8th, while snow was observed at Detroit Metro Airport on the 8th only. For Detroit, this was the third earliest snowfall on record. While the snow only fell in trace amounts in the major metropolitan areas, more substantial snow was observed in the Thumb area. One to two inches of slushy snow contributed to auto accidents in Huron County.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Dry and seasonable weather to continue through Wednesday We are looking at a couple of dry days and seasonable temperatures by October standards for the next couple of days. NW flow aloft in the SW quadrant of the upper low complex over the region will continue to funnel down cooler air than we have been experiencing over the recent days. There was one short wave well NE of the area last night, and another one today. These waves are far enough away with a lack of moisture to keep our area dry. 850 mb temperatures in the mid single digits C will support highs today and Wednesday well into the 60s. - Frost/Freeze Risk Continues Wednesday night High pressure will build down from the north Wednesday evening. The northeast flow ahead of this system will act to keep the warming influence of the lake from protecting much of the region from a frost/freeze event. With clear skies, light winds and cool start to the night, a widespread frost/freeze event is looking likely Wednesday night. Ensemble temperature trends continue to mostly trend downward with even mid 30`s showing up around Grand Rapids now. Outlying areas will likely be a few degrees lower. - Increasing weekend showers, then cooler A cold front tracks southeastward through the forecast area Friday evening. The forcing accompanying this frontal passage looks weak and moisture will be limited. Thus any showers should remain scattered with northern zones most favored to see them given the proximity to the better moisture and lift. A stronger mid to upper level wave/clipper digs in from the northwest Saturday night into Sunday. Some Gulf moisture gets drawn into this wave as it tracks through. A much colder air mass advects into and behind this system into Monday. Given the dynamic support and added moisture from the Gulf, we will raise POPs for the synoptic part of the system, Saturday night into Sunday. This is supported by the ensemble 24 hr qpf values showing an increasing trend. The lake effect/enhancement on the backside of the wave looks favorable for a prolonged period of showers, even into Monday night. Water temps are in the low to mid 60`s and 850 mb temps are shown to drop down into the -2 to -4 deg C range which will generate favorable delta T`s for lake effect/enhanced precipitation. POP`s were raised into Monday night for the region as well.
Does anyone know of a good app on phone in case things get crazy to communicate with people in the state or out of state? Family in Florida is prepping.
My brother flew home from Florida on Sunday, good thing he got out. Looks like this could be a BAD storm, hope everyone stays safe!!
Chilly morning. It was in the 30s this morning at my house. I sit at 40 at the present time. Tonight and tomorrow could be even colder. Bring on a frost.
I am so worried about family south of where Milton is going to hit. They are all hunkering down and some moving further south. There wasn’t much gas and roads headed north were packed. Our nephew is a firefighter and goes in duty tonight, so keep all of Florida in your prayers!!!!
The Aurora last night was epic. Very vibrant! I snapped several pics.
Oh my GOSH yes and the show at 1am was much better than the one at 10:30!!!!
Oh yeah it was a good one!
I saw two shows: 1030pm and 1am!
Milton is worrisome, for sure. I suspect that most of us know people living in its path.
The auroras were better last night than Sunday night. Pinks but also some greens. So cool.
CHECK OUT THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WOW!
We now have 7 days of October 2024 in the record books. So far the mean at Grand Rapids is 59.0 the is a departure of +2.9 the high so far for the month is 76 on the 3rd and the low so far is 41 set this morning. There has been just a trace of rainfall that is a departure of -0.90” Since September 1st there has been just 1.32” of rainfall and that is a departure of -3.01” so yes it has been a mild and dry fall so far.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 64/43 there was no rainfall the sun was out 97% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 64/45 the record high of 88 was set in 2007 the coldest high of 44 was set in 1915 the record low of 28 was set in 1896 and 1989 the warmest low of 67 was set in 2007 the most rain fall of 1.00” fell in 2021 there have been several years when a trace of snow was reported.
Slim