Yesterday we managed to reach 43° with an overnight low of 25°. We are a bit milder this morning with a low of 35°. Dry and mostly cloudy conditions are expected over the next few days with temperatures warming a few degrees each day, reaching the near-normal temperature in the 50s by the weekend with slight rain chances.
Forecast
Today
Partly sunny, with a high near 48. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 35. South southwest wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. South southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 38. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light south-southwest after midnight.
Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Saturday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers after 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 40.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 41.
Monday
Showers are likely, mainly after 2 p.m. Cloudy, with a high near 54.
Monday Night
Showers are likely, mainly before 2 a.m. Cloudy, with a low of around 41.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 48.
Tuesday Night
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 34.
Wednesday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 2nd:
1743: Benjamin Franklin’s “eclipse hurricane” unlocked the key to storm movement. A rainstorm prevented Ben Franklin from viewing a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, but his brother in Boston saw it, though the rain began an hour later. Click HERE for more information from the Hurricane Research Division.
1946: A tornado hit Washington in Hempstead County in Arkansas, killing one.
1992: Another infamous November Great Lakes Storm brought windy conditions to Minnesota’s Lake Superior shoreline. 70 mph winds caused waves to crash over 130-foot walls along the shore.
Forecast Discussion
Tranquil wx is fcst through the short term fcst period. Skies will be partly sunny today and southwest winds will ramp up to around 10-20 mph from late morning through the afternoon and early evening. High temps will reach the middle 40s to near 50 degrees after a chilly start to the day. A strong shortwave will move east across the Lake Superior region Friday and help to push a weakening cold front into our northern fcst area by Friday afternoon. Forcing from this weakening boundary will bring just a slight chance of a light rain shower to our northern fcst area Friday afternoon. However the majority of pcpn will stay well north of our area in closer proximity to the strong pva and forcing from the upper level shortwave. The long term period will feature zonal flow in general with multiple shortwaves forecast to affect the area weather. Timing these shortwaves at this range in the forecast is a bit problematic, but they look to be moving through on 1) Saturday night, 2) Monday and 3) Tuesday Night/Wednesday. As for temperatures through the period as is typically the case this time of year they will be up and down with the warmest period being on Monday when we have the strongest wave and hence the strongest warm air advection. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 50s and we could push towards 60 in the south on Monday. That will be replaced by cold air advection and highs in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Each system will bring the chance for rain showers as it looks a bit too warm from much in the way of snow. Saturday night`s system is weak and the operational ECWMF is actually dry. We have 20-30 pops in the forecast at this point as a middle of the road path. The strongest system of the long term by far is the system on Monday where a low moves through the northern Great Lakes dragging a cold front through our area. We have 60-80 pops in the forecast on Monday with a chance of thunder as well. Surface dew points surge into the middle 50s on Monday. The final shortwave of the long term is forecast to move through on Wednesday and is handled a bit different in the GFS vs the ECWMF. The ECMWF is a bit weaker and slower with the progression. 30-50 pct chances for mainly light rain are in the forecast. Bottom line...multiple chances for precipitation in the long term with the Monday system being the most significant. Temperatures will moderate/rise into Monday and then fall into mid next week.
Phew, that was quite a monster October snowstorm and incredible cold! Wow!
Boy, the long-term forecast for November looks pretty nice. Lots of days in the 50’s and upper 40’s. No big shots of winter.
Phew it’s been a warm 2023! I think this will be our 4th straight warm year. Only one below average month in all of 2023 so far (according to Lansing data).
Grand Rapids has had 5 above and 5 below average months so far. Most of the cool months were during the warm season, and warm months during the cold season
Except the warm months have been way above average while the cool months have been pretty close to average – right? I’m not sure. I no longer follow GR data due to its unreliability.
Yesterday in the October summery I made a typo mistake that Andy caught with a mean of 52.6° that is a departure of +1.1 I had the departure of -1.1 note I have now changed it. Thanks Andy.
Slim
Here is a repost from yesterday on a couple of winter guesses.
Here is the this winters guess from John Dee. His guess follows the trend of a El Nino winter season with warmer temperatures and less snow fall.
https://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-text/
While just a guess my guess for Grand Rapids Michigan is that there will be around 50 to 55″ of snow fall and temperatures will run about 2° above average for December, January and February.
Here is another link to a winter 2023/24 guess.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/
Slim
Warm with little snow. I love it!
The official H/L yesterday was 40/24 there was a trace of snow fall and a reported trace of snow on the ground at GRR. The highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the S. There was 28% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 77 was set in 1938 and the record low of 18 was set in 1951. The most rain fall on 2.69” fell in 2003. The most snow fall of 1.5” fell in 1991. Last year the H/L was a warm 67/38.
Slim
The low of 24 yesterday was of course a hard freeze and it was the earliest low below 25 since 1983. Last year it did not happen until November 18th the average date is November 11th
Slim
I need to mow again. I’m ready to winterize the mower, but I’m not sure Mother Nature is ready for me to do that just yet.
I will try to mulch the leaves one more time be for I put the lawn mower to bed for the winter. Otherwise I will have to run out the gas I have in the mower. Then get the snowblower out and ready for winter if needed.
Slim
Our maple out back is almost leaf-free. Many leaves fell in the past 72 hours.
Our maple, ash, and miniature crab apple trees dropped all their leaves… there is still one left that needs to drop, not sure what kind of tree it is