We have now reached which is typically the warmest part of summer before we reach a faster downward trend of daylight. Today the sun rises at 6:21 and sets at 9:15 giving us 14 hours 54 minutes of daylight. At the beginning of July, sunrise/sunset times were 6:09/9:23 which gave us 15 hours and 14 minutes of daylight. By the end of the month, we are down to 14 hours and 29 minutes of daylight. By the end of August, we are down to 13 hours 11 minutes.
These are rainfall totals from Friday/Saturday’s system:
This week will be fairly quiet with warm temps and lots of sunshine in the forecast.
-- Warm through Tuesday with hazy skies -- With the departure of the upper-level trough to our south and east, we will be under weak ridging and split flow with the surface high centered just to our west. Now that we are in the climatologically warmest part of summer, these high temperatures in the mid 80s the next few days can be considered near normal. Dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s is also pretty tolerable for most people`s comfort (the heat index won`t be much higher than the temperature in this case). A few diurnal cumulus may bubble up but otherwise it will be quite sunny. The HRRR-Smoke is showing a relatively dense plume of forest fire smoke advecting in from the north during the day and remaining overhead through Monday. This microscopic particulate matter should be suspended mostly between 2 and 4 km above the surface, though the model shows some mixing down to the surface Monday afternoon, especially in mid and eastern Lower Michigan. If that were to verify, it could result in visibility at the surface reduced below 10 miles. Regardless, expect hazy white skies and discolored sunrises/sunsets. NWS Gaylord tweeted photos of the sun setting through smoke Saturday evening. -- A few thunderstorm chances this week -- A digging upper-level trough and associated jet streak exit region will approach Michigan from the northwest on Tuesday, after cresting the poleward side of the western CONUS heat dome anticyclone. The surface cold front from the north may help initiate scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Storms are most probable east of US-131, likely moving south- southeast down the US-127 vicinity and east of there, as the diurnal confluence of surface winds will be maximized in this area. GFS and ECMWF show surface-based CAPE at Lansing in the ballpark of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear about 30 knots, so can`t rule out a locally strong to severe wind gust or large hail. Low-level warm air advection from the west Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of another digging trough over the northern Great Lakes on Thursday may also promote thunderstorm development. ECMWF ensemble members give a less clear signal on the the time frame of concern with this, sometime between Thursday and Friday. There may also be another shortwave passing through next weekend which would give us another chance of storms.