Good morning. The blog will have a different feel to it for a while as I step in for MV for a little while. So just bare with me as things will seem a little different.
May Day is one of the four ancient Celtic cross-quarter days, making it an astronomical holiday as it falls between the March equinox and June solstice. Originating from its Celtic name, “Belthane,” Beltane was a spring celebration that included dancing, singing, special bonfires, and house doors and animals would be decorated with yellow May flowers and ribbons. During this time, in various communities in Ireland, people would visit special wells and the Bethane dew was believed to bring beauty and youthfulness to those around it. In the Middle Ages, English villages had homes with maypoles from rejoice and celebrations of May Day. Villagers would go into the woods to find maypoles set up from towns and cities. Because maypoles came in different sizes, villages would compete with each other to see who had the tallest one. People would dance around them because the pole symbolized male fertility as baskets and wreaths symbolized female fertility. In the 19th century, a new meaning of May Day came about. May Day also became known as International Workers’ Day for labor rights and an eight hour work- day in the United States.
A look back at April the mean at Grand Rapids was 49.3 the high for the month was 83 on the 14th and the low was 24 on the 2nd There was 3.99″ of rain fall and 2.0″ of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean was 49.3, At Holland the mean was 49.4 and at Lansing the mean was 50.0.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/39 there was 0.04″ of rain fall the same as here in MBY. There was 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature was 39. For today the average H/L is 64/43 the record high of 88 was set in 1942 and the record low of 21 was set in 1903
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2023
– UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY –
A STACKED COLD CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVERHEAD THROUGH
TUESDAY RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOLER TEMPS AND WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE WE CURRENTLY SIT IN THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT, CURRENT RADAR
SHOWS SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE U.P. AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN. THAT TROWAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CURL INTO
WEST MICHIGAN NEAR DAYBREAK RESULTING IN A BURST OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. THE NOSE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND THE DRY WEDGE WILL BECOME
LARGELY REESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN LOWER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN LOW TO OUR EAST PIVOTS,
THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONVERGE ON LOWER MICHIGAN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT FORECAST DILEMMA IS SNOW. WHILE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE RAIN, SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
THROUGH THE MORNING, ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL TURN BACK TO RAIN.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
BUT MILD AIR TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURES (RANGING FROM 40
TO 50 DEGREES ACROSS WEST MICHIGAN) WILL BE MAJOR LIMITING FACTORS
TO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION (SAVE FOR A VERY BRIEF FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ON
GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO SHORT DURATION HEAVIER SNOW RATES), THE AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN REGION,
SUCH AS AREAS NORTH OF NORTHERN NEWAYGO, MECOSTA, AND ISABELLA
COUNTIES. IF HEAVIER MORE PERSISTENT BANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED,
SLUSHY AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUT AGAIN, GIVEN
THE ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPS AND EVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES, WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR IMPACTS.
AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WINDS WILL ALSO RAMP UP AS THE CORRESPONDING LLJ NARROWS
IN ON LOWER MICHIGAN. PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS AND
HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST THIS EVENING, THEN WILL
TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE REALLY DIMINISHING
TUESDAY NIGHT.
– QUIETER END TO THE WEEK –
BY WEDNESDAY A 500MB RIDGE WILL FORCE THE CUTOFF LOW EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT STILL WARMER FOLLOWING TODAY AND
TUESDAY’S COLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS EVEN TOUCHING 70 BY SUNDAY.
Today
Rain. High near 42. West northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Tonight
Rain before 2am, then a chance of rain and snow. Low around 36. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow before 2pm, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Northwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
So we are in for a cold start to May.
May is a already double digits below normal for temps! Wow!!!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
I’ve been seeing snowflakes off and on all day with the rain. It’s really is a raw cold day out there.
Windchill 26 out in my hood feels like January outside no joke its very cold …Great balls of fire …INDY
Im thinking its February or maybe January something all the locals are still talking about snow and cold temperatures as its really May what a cold stretch we are having .. Currently its 38 outside brrrr ….INDY
Incredible cold pattern we have been in for weeks on end! Truly amazing!
Wow, love seeing all that red on today’s CPC update!
After about a 3 week cold snap!!!!
I love long winters with above average snowfall! More snow is in the forecast on May 1st! Wow just wow, WOW!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2023050106&fh=120
Currently 36 in my hood is it May or February?? Lol… INDY
Crazy May cold!
If the updated CPC outlook for May plays out May looks have equal chances to be near average temperature wise and maybe on the dryer side.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Slim
Well it looks like one of the CPC’s outlooks are going to be wrong. Either the 3 to 4 week issued on the 28th of April or the 30 days issued yesterday.
Slim
It’ll probably be a cold first week, then warmer for the remainder
Rock on Slim!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/
Starting in a few days, all 60’s and 70’s and 80’s as far as the eye can see! We got a nice week long taste of summer, but now here comes the real thing! I love this time of year.
80’s ??? Wow okay well it is May lol…INDY
Well, we just ended a warm April. And it looks like some May heat is coming soon!
I believe that makes 11 straight warm months in a row (excluding GR’s faulty data).
Before we close the book on winter this year don’t forget that we are a whopping 33 inches above normal and more snow is in the forecast for tonight! What a long and snowy winter and a brutal start to May! Wow, just wow, WOW! Maybe by this weekend it will actually be nice weather for golf! Incredible!
I’m currently in Dublin, OH and it is not much better here than Michigan atm. Upper 30s, rain, and wind is very unpleasant. Good news is we have plenty of nice weather approaching, so just a couple more days of this and we are probably in the clear
another Monday morning with snow flakes in the air. I’m starting to feel like Bill Murray in that movie Ground Hog Day…
Interesting…. Grand Rapids ended April with ABOVE average temps and BELOW normal snowfall!!! How could that be?!?!? All we’ve been hearing all month is nonstop cold and snow propaganda!! Well only two days for them left to enjoy their kind of weather then it’s a MAJOR pattern change!
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/b523690bfd952b86fef3627c919dd9855281a8da16b83c10bdd381c64ae12cbc
Exactly! And here comes more warmth!
Incredible May cold has arrived and our cool pattern is still locked in! Forget golf and embrace the cold! Maybe by this weekend we will start to see actual nice warm Spring weather! Wow!