We have had the beginnings of another dry month with only a tenth of an inch of precip thus far. We have the promise of rain today mainly late this morning and throughout the afternoon. Our high temp yesterday was 79.9° and this morning at 5:30 we have a warm 64.9° which is well above our normal high temps for this time of year which would be in the mid-50s.
-- Showers and scattered thunderstorms today -- Regional radar shows a large swirl of precipitation rotating around a low in Iowa. There have been a few showers/isold storms over northern lower earlier this evening, but the CWA has been mainly dry. That will change today as the upper support of the low moves east and pushes showers and scattered storms north into Lower MI ahead of the occluded front. These storms will be mostly non-severe. Although there is a window from 21z-01z where a couple of storms may become strong. This is when shear values will be maximized around 30 knots. Overall, instability isn`t tremendous, but MUCAPE values around 500 j/kg late in the day may generate a few stronger wind gusts. Arcing bands of showers/storms seems like the most logical type of propagation. Precipitable water values near 1.25 inches point toward locally heavy rainfall in brief periods. -- Wet through the weekend -- The upper low will be slow to move east and so we`re looking at showers and storms to continue Friday. There may be a brief lull in the showers Friday night, but another low is progd to move north from the Gulf Saturday. The ECMWF is more bullish on this than the GFS, but both models have this system and produce precipitation over the CWA Saturday and Saturday night with the ECMWF continuing the showers Sunday. The ECMWF deepens the low to 987mb which would point toward some wind late in the weekend. -- Cooler after Saturday -- The weekend low gets kicked out by another short wave moving across the northern tier of states. Colder air gets wrapped into this system and brought down over the Great Lakes. ECMWF ensembles shows this cooler air beginning Sunday and continuing next week. Highs in the lower 50s will be common next week.