Yesterday we had a high of 56 and a low of 27.
There will be a warming trend through Friday, with highs in the 70s on Friday and Saturday. A weather system will move through Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing showers and possibly thunderstorms.
SPC Outlook for Friday
Lunar Eclipse
Your Local Forecast
Weather History
1976: A tornado outbreak struck from Michigan to Alabama. At least four tornadoes hit Michigan with nine people injured. Two tornadoes hit Jackson County, with damage to several homes and businesses. One person was injured in Ottawa County as a tornado moved from north of Holland to north of Hudsonville.
On March 12, 2014, a moisture laden winter storm tracked across the area bringing a swath of 6 to 10 inches of snowfall to areas along and south of I-69. The heaviest band of snow fell roughly along the M59 corridor where 8 to 10 inches was observed. Driving conditions quickly deteriorated as gusty winds over 40 mph ushered in much colder air resulting in freezing and drifting of snow on area roads.
Also on March 12, 2012, thunderstorms produced a rare March tornado just southeast of the town of Coleman. Rated an EF1, it was tied for the second earliest tornado to be recorded in Southeast Michigan since 1950 and only the 10th March tornado on record. It would be the first of four to occur during the month.
Also on March 12, 2009, as a result of heavy rainfall between the 7th and 11th, flooding was observed on several rivers in Southeast Michigan. Three or more inches of rain fell across a good portion of southeast lower Michigan with the River Raisin basin getting hit the worst with 4 to 5 inches in that period. The flooding reached moderate flood stage on the Huron at Hamburg and the reach from Blissfield down to Monroe got to moderate to major flood stage. Dundee recorded its 3rd highest crest ever. Many roads and homes along the Raisin were flooded.
Forecast Discussion
- Warmer than normal rest of the week The only change to the forecast is the addition of some gusty winds this morning. Though there is zonal upper level flow a negatively tilted ridge through the mid levels is building over the Mid Atlantic and the Eastern Great Lakes. As noted in previous discussions, easterly winds will be emanating from this ridge. There is also a negatively tilted mid level trough that is tilted across southern Michigan this morning through Mid day. That trough, and subsequent gradient should allow for 925mb winds to mix to the surface this morning into early afternoon. That will mean some wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range this morning. Have also leaned on some of the short range guidance due to this and have adjusted daytime highs today. Highs will be back into the 50s today and will continue to climb every day into Saturday. Friday and Saturday Max temperatures are still trending in the low 70s and upper 60s respectively. This would put those days at 20 to 30 degrees above normal. - Showers and Storms Late Friday into Saturday Forecast trend continues for the system that will move through the region to begin the weekend. Models remain in agreement The large upper level system will be accompanied by a strong low level jet, currently around 50kts. Though the system is arriving into lower Michigan at night, that shear shouldn`t need much CAPE. Previous discussions noted the strong isentropic ascent that the low level jet will create when combined with the PV advection. Given those ingredients, along with PWATS upwards 0.75 of according to the NAEFS. That anomalous moisture should be more than enough for thunderstorm development early Saturday morning. Though the showers and storms will move through early Saturday, The gusty wind trend for Saturday continues with the low level jet persisting through the daytime Saturday. That will mean winds of 30 to 40 mph through the daytime and into the early evening. - Cold and Wet Sunday, a return to warmth next week A deepening upper level trough will be setting up over the high plains and the upper mid west late Saturday into Sunday. That potentially could bring some more showers and storms Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There is some question on position of highest QPF and many put it just east of the region, however there remains some potential for another half an inch rainfall into Sunday morning. Latest Plumes show some variance and a large bulk of the members trending on the low side, but the model mean remains a chance of showers Saturday night. Cold northwesterly flow will follow the trough as it exits to the east. That will bring temperatures back down to normal with a cooler and wetter Sunday. While those temperatures will linger through Monday the warmth should return as we move through the upcoming week.
Boy, the cold weather crazies are quiet lately with all this warmth. We are more than 10″ below average snowfall, and it hasn’t snowed much at all in a month!
We have an ‘extreme fire danger’ here in Austin TX today… in a severe drought (it has barely rained the past 6 months) with 10% rel humidity, 90F, and strong winds. Last week with the same conditions a dust storm moved through. We will see if the same happens today
The storm later this week is worth monitoring. Not for us, necessarily. It’s going to be a monster. They’re talking blizzards up north, wildfires in Texas, and a large area of tornadic storms.
The official H/L yesterday at GRR was 55/33 there was no rain/snowfall the sun was out 76% of the possible time, the highest wind gust was 30 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 43/26 the record high of 76 was in 1990 the coldest high of 18 was in 2022 the record low of 2 was in 1948,1993 the warmest low of 53 was in 1990. The most rain fall of 2.35” was in 1902 the most snowfall of 3.2” was in 1923 the most on the ground was 11” in 2014, 1978. Mild early… Read more »