Yesterday, we had a high temperature of 36° and a morning low of 30°. Our first fall cold spell with snow is now in the books. We had 2.9 inches of snow, .26 inches of rain, and snow melted. We have a total of 3.19 inches of rain for November and 6.84 inches for the fall thus far.
Let’s not get overly excited by the forecasts below folks as it is long-range guesses.
Post Thanksgiving Forecast
Our first Arctic air and heavy lake effect of the season
December Forecast
Weather History
1866: Seven inches of snow piles up in Lansing as temperatures plunge to the single digits.
1963: President John Kennedy is assassinated in Dallas, Texas. The weather in Lower Michigan is unusually warm with morning lows around 50 degrees and afternoon highs in the 60s. The month ends up being one of the warmest November on record.
On November 22, 1880, there was an exceptionally early cold wave in Detroit which commenced on the 18th and lasted 6 days all with record lows with the bottom hitting zero on the 22nd. This resulted from an arctic high pressure measuring near 31.00″ over Ohio.
Also, on this date in 1909, 2.59″ of precipitation fell in Detroit. This is the record maximum precipitation for the month of November in Detroit.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Lingering light precipitation through tonight A large upper-level low will keep lumbering slowly east today, as the next iteration of surface cyclogenesis along a frontal triple point occurs over the New York region. Over our area, 500 mb heights will be rising and 850 mb temperatures warming, and the midlevels including the DGZ will dry out. Precipitation production will become more limited to just lake effect in the zones favored amidst northwest winds. Even then, a strengthening inversion serving as the lake-effect PBL convective cap around 5 to 7 kft, as cold as -5 Celsius, will limit showers to mostly light and low- topped. Most areas are expected to receive very light rain totals from this point forward, though the HRRR suggests 0.25 inch around South Haven where a dominant band may come ashore. - Potential for showers Monday into Tuesday Within a somewhat more zonal pattern early next week, an upper level trough is expected to sharpen up as it traverses the Northern Plains to Great Lakes. The air on the front end of the surface low that will advect toward Michigan will be rather mild, and Monday is likely to be the warmest day of the week. Most members within the global ensembles point to 0.10 to 0.25 inch QPF, with some outliers around 0.50 if the low deepens sooner, as the GFS shows a small amount of midlevel instability that may boost precip rates in that scenario. Any lingering precip on Tuesday would switch to light, lake-enhanced snow. - Turning colder with winter weather possible during the holiday weekend Ensembles continue to favor colder-than-normal temperatures from Wednesday onward through the long holiday weekend, with longwave troughing across southern Canada poised to let modified Arctic air spill into the Midwest. However, there are differing solutions regarding the magnitude of troughing into the south-central CONUS, with implications on the strength and track of a potential low- pressure system that could provide snow either to Michigan or farther south in the Ohio river valley to Northeast US around Thursday-Friday. Regardless of that potential, there is decent confidence in a pattern that supports accumulating lake-effect snow and some travel headaches during the long holiday weekend.
Bring on a snowstorm or significant lake effect event!
+1000!
I hope the forecast pans out… I’d much rather have 20s and 30s and snow, instead of 40s and 50s and gloom any time
Rock on!
As we roll into December the NW Lower MI ski resorts should be in GREAT shape! Bring it!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024112206&fh=384
Looks like this weekend is the best shot at getting the outside Christmas lights up without having to wear gloves. Be safe of those ladders (refer to Clark Griswald in Christmas Vacation)!
Wind chills in the 30’s on Saturday and around 40 on Sunday! I will definitely be wearing gloves! You are correct it will be lot colder on Thanksgiving weekend! Bring on a snowstorm !
The official H/L yesterday at GR was 37/33. GR had its 1st snowfall of the season with 0.2” of snow fall. The total precipitation was 0.16” For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 66 was in 1913 the coldest high of 20 was in 1929 the record low of 13 was in 1929 the warmest low of 55 was in 2010. The wettest was 1.38” in 2010. The most snowfall of 7.0” fell in 1898 6.8” fell in 1945. The most on the ground was 11” in 2000.
Slim
The overnight low here in MBY was 32. I did not have any rain/snow since 8AM yesterday. At the current time it is 37 and cloudy.
Slim
I’m in the west Chicago suburbs. Drove here yesterday evening. It’s the same as back home. Got some snow but it quickly melted. The roads were fine.
This is pretty wild:
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2024/11/lake-st-clair-water-temps-almost-hard-to-believe-how-warm-it-is.html
What? Winter weather is coming? Who knew? Don’t worry the warm weather nuts will say no big deal and will downplay every snowstorm the entire season! Incredible!