Light snow will develop this morning with the largest amounts in north-central lower Michigan. Amounts will range from an inch or less along I-94, to 2 to 3 inches up toward through central Michigan. Roads will likely become snow-covered and slick this morning.
After today’s snow or lack thereof we will turn our attention to tomorrow evening’s system which may bring another three or more inches to southern lower Michigan. We should see some sort of advisory or warning going up later today or early tomorrow. At this point, the heaviest snow will be between 196 and I94 though as time moves on this may move north or south. Below are the model guesses:
NAM
NAM NEST
GFS
NWS Discussion:
- 1 to 2 inches of warm advection snow Today Still on track to pick up a warm advection burst of snow today although amounts should be cut down a bit by dry air place this morning. Still, we should get an inch or two across most of the forecast area. Impacts to travel should be limited as sfc temps in the lower 30s this afternoon. - 3 to 6 inches of f-gen snow Monday night/Tuesday Frontogenetic forcing sets up on Monday night into Tuesday across the central and southern forecast area is sufficient for 3 to 6 inches of snow from I-94 to near I-96. There could be a sharp northern edge to the snow as is the case with dry and cold air advecting into the storm from the cold anticyclone from the north. That northern edge could be across our central or northern forecast area. The frontogenetical forcing weakens and the snow tapers off Tuesday night with hints of an upper low and weak surface wave bringing a batch of light snow through on Wednesday. This was now showing up in the blended POPs. It looks like the storm that ejects out of the western CONUS longwave trough on Wednesday will track well south of Lower Michigan.
>>>>>Breaking Weather Bulletin>>>>> the 00Z of the RDB model shows GR may pick up a whopping 2 to 2.5 inches of snow Monday night! This may be the second largest snowfall of the season! It will be weakening and moving South of GR, so around 2 inches for GR is about it! Stay tuned for later updates, however the trend is not good and on a side note, the EURO mid range model has been atrocious this season!
Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Van Buren-
Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids,
Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing,
South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson
316 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO
4 PM EST TUESDAY…
* WHAT…Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and continue
into Tuesday. Storm total snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is
expected. The greatest snowfall amounts will be over western
sections of Southwest Michigan.
* WHERE…Portions of south central and southwest Michigan.
* WHEN…From 7 PM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday.
Looking forward to the AFD this afternoon… maybe some watches or warnings will be issued. My *guess* is they will go with 4-7 from 1-96 south and 2-4 to the north.
Seems legit. One of our local mets this morning said it’s too early for an accurate prediction but at this point, he is guessing 3-6″ for here.
Well, Rocky is disregarding public health and safety again by recklessly traveling up north, even though the UK variant of Covid is showing up in Michigan now. Much like Gavin Newsom or Pelosi, Rocky is your typical do as I say, not as I do type of liberal! I guess skiing is essential travel now??
Good morning, friends. Snowing pretty good here. Already have an inch, which during a typical winter would be unremarkable, but this has not been a typical winter.
My alma mater, DeWitt, finally won their first state championship in football last night. Exciting game.
There is also a inch here but the snow has now mostly stopped. It is now 32 here.
Slim
Just stopped here, so I shoveled a pathway and an area out back for our little dog so she could do her business.
Here is some information on thunder snow.
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/scientists-learn-thundersnow-satellite-imagery/story?id=75431573&cid=clicksource_4380645_14_heads_posts_card_hed
When I live in Bay City and Alpena, I experienced thundersnow many times. I can recall storms in 1964, 1967, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1978, and 1984. I moved to Grand Rapids in the spring of 1984 and in that time while there have been reports of thunder snow, I have only recalled one time and that was just a single flash (note many of the storms above had many flashes) and of course very heavy not lake effect snow falls. If Grand Rapids has a true thunder snowstorm before I die I will let you know.
Slim
Well there is some light snow falling here at the current time but so far just a trace amount is on the ground. As of this morning the seasonal snow fall remains at 9.4″ at Grand Rapids. That is just under 3 feet below average. At Muskegon the seasonal total is 16.7″ just under 40″ below average. And at Lansing the total there is 13.8″ That is over a foot below average.
Here is how it stands up north.
https://www.weather.gov/apx/snow
Slim
The firesh snow falling outside is beautiful on this Sunday morning time to stoke a fire up and get ready for some good football….INDY
As for today, no advisory needed. For the early week storm, it is looking like a possible advisory, no wsw needed! We really need this storm to track farther North than the current guidance shows. The RDB is model will get fired up later this evening once I am back in town! Enjoy winter people, it is the best time of year! Rock n roll will never die!
Trying to remember when the last time was we had no mid 40’s or 50’s and snow on the ground for the whole month of January it’s been a few years I bet we don’t have the big snow numbers yet but outside winter activities have been the best in a long time due to good snow pk cool temps and no big meltdowns fun fun fun let’s keep it going through April thank you mother nature …let it snow let it snow let it snow ..INDY
Yes I am up North again and absolutely great conditions! Who would have thought?
The high so far this month is just 41. It that holds for the rest of the month the last time a January had a colder high then 41 was in 2009 when the high for January was just 36. In 2001 the high for January was 40. The coldest high for any January is 29 in 1912. We will have to see if it gets warmer than 41 the rest of the month.
Slim