We are getting radar returns this morning depicting moisture and rain moving into the area after a long period of only smoke and dry air. Widespread rain showers are expected across the forecast area today. This activity will gradually taper off to isolated showers this evening. Hazardous swimming conditions are also expected today and Monday at many Lake Michigan beaches. Additional opportunities for rain are in the forecast this week. Temperatures today will range from the mid-60s to the low 70s across lower Michigan. The last time we had over a quarter inch of rain was 5/7 through 5/8 (.36). The last decent showers were way back in April 1st through the 5th with 4.65 inches. The showers we are expecting today won’t be a drought buster but we will take what we can get at this point.
Ongoing showers over parts of the forecast area this morning will gradually expand southward today, then taper off to isolated showers this evening. High temps will be cooler than yesterday. After today, light showers are again likely on Mon night into Tue.
Grand Rapids Forecast
6 11 grrLansing Forecast
6 11 lanKalamazoo Forecast
6 11 kzoU.S.A and Global Events for June 11th:
1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City’s longtime weatherman, commented: “Snow during the forenoon’s boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter.”
1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball-sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm.
Forecast Discussion
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 Showers are finally infiltrating drought stricken lower Michigan early this morning, so far mainly north of a Holland to Lansing line where entrance region upr jet dynamics/lift is prevalent. While much of the rain has been on the lighter side there has been a few heavier convective elements producing local quarter inch amounts across parts of Oceana and Newaygo Counties. Still some dry air below 7000 ft to overcome this morning over southern sections but showers eventually filling in over the rest of the area by afternoon. This occurs as the wave currently over Missouri moves to the east/northeast and gets absorbed into the developing upper low circulation centered over the nrn Great Lakes Region. Guidance max temps have come up a bit for the I-94 area today, into the lower 70s, but 60s still expected near and north of I-96. 00Z HREF probability-matched mean amounts still look on the paltry side today into this evening for most areas, although some indication that a few localized half inch or more amounts are not out of the question. While an isolated t-storm cannot be ruled out, RAP soundings/MUCape progs under 400 J/KG are not really supportive of thunder. Push of drier air sweeps in from the north/northwest tonight, with rain showers ending from west to east. That dry air remains over the area on Monday, so we have a mainly dry forecast-- despite a large closed upper low circulation directly overhead. Typically you would expect to see clouds and a few diurnal instability showers developing due to the cold temps aloft, but the dry air and cool/stable flow off Lk MI actually leads to a fair amount of sunshine on Monday, especially over western sections. Still cool though with highs in the mid to upr 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023 -- Showers likely Mon night into Tue -- Medium-range models indicate that an occluded cyclone will be situated over the region at 00z Tue, featuring a surface low in the vicinity of Georgian Bay and a closed low at 500 mb over Lower MI. This cyclone should gradually become vertically stacked on Tue as the overall circulation shifts eastward. As this occurs, models indicate that a remnant trowal airstream, approximately coinciding with a midlevel theta-e ridge, will encroach on the area. Along this trowal, deep-layer QG forcing for ascent (850-300-mb Q-vector convergence) should aid in producing mainly light rain from late Mon night into Tue across much of the area. Guidance indicates weak instability (MUCAPE < 200 J/kg) during the daytime Tue, suggesting that any t-storms will be fairly isolated. Median 24-h precip amounts through 00z Wed in the EPS and GEFS ensembles are light, generally ranging from 0.15-0.25" across the forecast area, but ensemble spread is sizable at some locations. -- Chance of rain Wed night and Thu -- A mid/upper ridge will amplify over the Canadian prairies on Tue night and Wed in response to a deepening cyclone in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. In turn, this ridge building will contribute to the downstream amplification of a trough over Hudson Bay and northern Ontario on Wed. A vort max associated with this digging trough will approach the area during the Wed night-Thu timeframe, as indicated in deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs and their respective ensemble means. Forcing for ascent in advance of this feature, along with a modest increase in PW (to near 1"), should support an area of rain as this vort max progresses through the region. However, precip placement is uncertain, with the possibility that rain glances or misses the forecast area. Slight chance PoPs is included with this update, supported by overall ensemble probs.
It’s been raining decently the past 30 minutes. Maybe we will be able to get over a tenth of an inch… at least it is something
I will take this tiny rain and hope for more on Tuesday!!! It sure feels nice out instead of all the heat!!!
We finally reached a whopping .01 of an inch!
Light rain here. It will help. I think if we had a heavy rain it would just roll off instead of sinking in the soil.
This so called rain is very meager! Definitely will not end the drought! Pathetic!
I don’t see how this will do a lot of help the drought. But better than nothing we will take anything. We need some on and off moderate rain especially at night to soak in. We need the moisture loaded systems like we had this past incredible winter.
The good news is there are more rain chances next week. So if anyone misses out today… you still have another shot. Let’s hope this rain puts an end to the developing drought and wildfires!
Doesn’t look like much, unfortunately. It’s cool and cloudy for a change. The heat and the sun has been tough on my lawn.
Highs in the 60’s in mid June! The cool pattern is locked in! Incredible!
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/48. There was no rain fall and there was 52% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 60 and there was 0.01” of rain fall so far. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 93 was set in 1894, 1933 and 1956 the record low of a chilly 33 was in 1972. The most rain fall of 2.64” fell in 1986.
Slim
At the current time it is 60 here in MBY with cloudy skies there has been some very light rain that has fallen. There is a good chance of some showers today and also a good chance of several more chances of rain this week. The week will start off on the cool side and then should be close to average for the end of the week. There is no real warm air in the forecast.
Slim