The Winter Weather Advisory expires at 9am. Temperatures are around freezing this morning and I feel this is rather balmy compared to the bone chilling air we have been experiencing. The big question is will we have a repeat of last winter or will we have a return to the frigid Arctic airmass. The models can’t decide or reach an agreement what is coming in the long term. The GFS has us returning to a cold airmass beginning Friday and lasting through most of next week. The CFSv2 shows a return to warmer air above freezing around the 17th. I believe we will see a trend of the jet moving back and forth over the state with a more synoptic active weather pattern through the end of the month. At this point I think the Arctic airmass will make a return in February.
Enjoy the relative warmth over the next few days – it will get colder again by Friday. The light snow on the ground has little water content so it will melt down fairly quickly.
Snow will wind down quickly this morning coming to an end across the area between 700am and 900am in most areas. Skies will trend toward partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. High pressure will move through the area for tonight and Tuesday bringing dry weather. Southerly winds return for Tuesday night into Wednesday which will bring warmer air into the region after a couple near normal days in the 30s for highs today and on Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday will push into the 40s with near 50 possible on Thursday. A brief wintry mix of precipitation is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning before the warm air surges in.
The focus during the long term will be the evolution of a southern plains storm that tracks from the Oklahoma panhandle Wednesday night to northeast Wisconsin/northern Lower, depending on the model. Either way, the cwa will be on the warm side. As showers develop ahead of the low, we`re likely to see areas of fog given the cold snowpack in place.
Rain is likely Thursday. As the low moves by, a cold front will usher in arctic temperatures again and any lingering rain will turn to snow. There will likely be quite a bit of surface water due to the rain and melting snow and that will probably freeze Thursday night. Certainly, travel impacts are possible. Highs will tumble from around 30 Friday to around 20 Saturday and in the teens Sunday. Both the ecmwf and gfs show a southern stream low developing on the trailing cold front of the Thursday storm and moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. The ecmwf is farther west and would impact the cwa with heavy snow Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, the gfs is farther east and its precipitation shield just clips the southeast cwa. Another surge of cold air flows in behind that system too.
Today: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 34. West southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light west southwest after midnight.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 34. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers before 3am, then a chance of sleet between 3am and 4am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southeast wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. Areas of fog after 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 42. South wind 13 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Areas of fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday: Showers. High near 48. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday Night: Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain and snow showers likely between midnight and 1am, then a chance of snow showers after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 27.
Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.
Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 22.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 8.
Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19.
Right now the models are showing like 2 feet of snow in Detroit!!! That is crazy!! This will be very interesting to follow!! Then pretty good confidence for a warm up after that! Roller coaster weather for Michigan again!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif
With temps a little above normal with this precip we could be looking at some big snowstorms!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
This is going to be a huge storm Friday some places may get 18 inches of snow it’s going to be close … This is what weather is all about not the warm or cold battle but RACKING STACKING AND TRACKING storms get the BIG daddy hat ready ..let it storm let it storm let it storm INDY!
Yes and we need this baby to track tight up towards Central Lake Erie!
Funny how we get 3 days of temps above freezing it’s called a thaw what will we call the weekend a cool down lol!! Bring on more snow its Winter INDY!!
It is also funny when a possible snowstorm is only 4 days away people discount it and say too early to talk about but yet possible rain shows up on the models 10 days out and they are talking about a huge warm up and heavy rain?
So true .. Rocky lol! INDY!
Warm up? keep in mind mid to late January is the coldest time of the year so if temps are a little above normal you get this!!
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018010818&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384
The model battle is getting very interesting! The latest GFS moves the snow storm farther to the East and EURO still hammers the state of MI and this is now only 4 days out? INCREDIBLE!
A nice red sun set tonight. With today’s sun the temperature jumped all the way up to 37° here and at least 36° at the airport. And while there is still a good snow pack now that looks to be most gone by late Thursday as temperatures may reach into the low 50’s before tumbling over the weekend. The current temperature here is now 34°
Slim
And then a possible snowstorm and tons of arctic air!
Winter storm watches maybe coming Thursday this could be a big storm time to start TRACKING now .. INDYSTORM!!
If the EURO IS CORRECT then watch out! Plenty of time for both models to change and come into agreement! Get ready to ROCK n ROLL!
Way too early to make that statement the better bet is that there could be some good lake effect on Sunday we shall see.
Slim
Just like thunder coming this Thursday right slim? INDY!!
How much of this will be SNOW and how much will be liquid? It appears to me that we will be on the Northern edge of the battle zone so watch out for multiple synoptic snow storms this winter! We are in for a wild ride!! I love it!
CFSv2 weeklies haven’t changed much today. The only big cold for the entire US in the next 45 days is days 35-45 for out west. That will be worth watching to see if it moves east and gives us one more cold shot mid to late February before spring.
Other than that, long-term above average temp pattern for Lower Michigan is in place.
It should be noted that the long-term Euro weeklies are in total agreement with this long-term outlook. Pretty much a 100% correlation right now.
If the EURO is correct then watch out!
http://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-graphic/
European model shows big storm over West Michigan Friday night we could be in
For some major system snows coming!! Love winter great day out at thee YARDofBRICKS sledding yeaaaa!! INDY!!
+100 MILLION!
38 degrees here, might hit 40 today yet after a forecast high of 33 or 34. With the sun out, and the low moisture snow pack, it is going fast! After the mid December melt, we’ve only had snow on the ground for about 3 weeks, and that streak will be ending in a day or two. Seems like when I was a kid we would have snow on the ground from November through March or April. That feels like an eternity ago.
I didn’t even bother shoveling the 2″ we received overnight and this morning.
I have had snow on the ground since December 7th I have enjoyed it lot longer then last year .. This snow is not going away tomorrow! I’m seeing temps back in the teens Sunday here! INDYDOG14!
You know it and the snow conditions for outdoor sports has been much better this season! In fact I plan to snowmobile or ski tomorrow!!
So much for the long term pattern flip to cold. We had two bitter weeks, and now it looks like we’re back to above average temps if the models pan out. We will still get a few cold days but it won’t last long before another warm up. Just like last winter when the snow didn’t stick around long either.
The worst part is that when we’ve had snow this winter, it’s been too cold to enjoy it. The ski resorts have been pretty empty on those days when wind chills were -10 to -40.
I would not count on the cold pattern being over, in fact the so called second warm up with rain may not even happen at all! It is already getting pushed farther and farther back! You are correct about the cold for skiing, however I have skied and snowmobiled right through the arctic outbreak. All you need is high quality outdoor gear and it is really not a problem at all! Give me teens all winter long!
Where did you ski? The ski hill has been empty the past 2 weeks.
I was up in the TC area and skied at Boyne MT for downhill and the Vasa Trail for Cross country! If dressed properly the cold is not an issue!
Climatology for today January 8th At Grand Rapids, MI
The average H/L is 31/18°
The record high is 59° set in 1965 the coldest maximum is 9° set in 1942
The record low is -13° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 40° in 2008
The largest snow fall is 5.2” set in 2015
The mot snow on the ground is 20” in 1999
Last year the H/L was 18/8 and there was 3” of snow on the ground.
Slim
As we get ready for what looks like could be a 2 part January thaw (one this week and another one with a lot of rain around the 19th to 22nd ) Here at my house I received 2.5” of wet snow last night. And now I have 9.5” on the ground. So far this winter season compared to last season. So far this winter season has been colder but here in Grand Rapids we continue to have less total snow fall. This season the total as of January 7th is 37.1” while last season it was 42.4”
Slim
I walked out of work last night I could smell rain reminding me of spring .. we got about 4 more inches of snow last night wet heavy snow becareful shoveling it!! All eyes in Friday possible big storm coming it will be fun RACKING STACKING AND TRACKING!! And to respond to Andy’s thought I like all kinds of weather especially storms and Blizzards are my favorite!!; Stay tuned INDY!!
Oh heck yeah INDY, storms of any sort are fantastic!! I love them too! As long as there is no property damage or injuries, of course.
Mother Nature is a beautiful Andy! We are lucky we live in a 4 season state we have it all yeaaa!! INDY!
You are right about that INDY!! We lived in Texas for about a half a year and couldn’t stand it! Too hot and sunny! Give me the changing seasons! I love Michigan too!
I don’t mind Winter, I do hate arctic fronts that keep temps in the teens and below zero for weeks on end. Temps in the 30’s with snow are great days! I would take that all winter. But waking up at 6 am for work everyday, starting and brushing off the car in subzero temps has been absolutely miserable these past couple weeks!! Also, the treacherous driving because the air is too cold for the salt to work is horrible!! On top of that the sky high heating bills for the furnace running all day is ridiculous!! Favorite seasons are definitely spring and fall, not a big fan of summer heat at all!
You make some good points and I also dislike the heat of summer. The best thing about winter temps in the teens and low 20’s is that the snow does not melt, so winter sports can keep ROCKING and ROLLING!
Temps in the 30s with snow are gross. The snow yesterday was a mucky mess. Teens and fluffy snow make for a Much more beautiful scene and is much easier to drive in, walk in, and clean up.