It is not nice outside this morning with the snow having turned to rain/freezing rain. We have about an inch of slush on the ground and a temp of 32° at 5:30 am. My radar (Radarscope) has picked up some lightning in SW Michigan (the little lightning bolts around Decator, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek). The reds are mixed precip the blue is all snow.
Yesterday’s high was 37° and the low was 22° with a mix of sun and clouds.
We will see another similar system move in for tomorrow night which we are seeing this morning – beyond that, model data is all over the place for the remainder of the week including tracking of a possible weekend storm. There does seem a hint of colder air in the picture as we move into the new year.
Forecast Discussion
- Burst of a Wintry Mix This Morning - Forecast is going about as planned and see no reason to change the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory which goes through 900am. Strong warm air advection is occurring aloft at this time across Southwest Lower Michigan. The precipitation is on the nose of a 50-55 knot 850mb jet. The 295K isentropic surface shows strong lift (50 knots) directly up tightly packed pressure surface, which equates to strong lift. That strong lift is resulting in convective precipitation with both lightning and 1/4 mile visibilities in snow. We will likely see localized accumulations of 1 to 2 inches from the I-96 corridor to the north. From the I-96 corridor to the south the precipitation will be more of a mix or a transition from snow/sleet/freezing rain to rain. So, snow accumulations should be less across the I-94 corridor. The precipitation rapidly shuts down towards 700am. The line of showers/storms over Illinois at 330am races off to the east of Highway 127 by 700am. There will likely be areas of lingering drizzle and freezing drizzle into the mid to late morning hours, but it should be quite light. By noon, the bulk of the forecast area should have above freezing surface temperatures. The exception will be the far northeast towards Reed City, Clare and Mt. Pleasant. Even up there though, the precipitation should be coming to an end by then. - Another Burst of Winter Weather on Tuesday - It looks like another round of winter weather occurs on Tuesday with a warm front lifting into the area. The surface front is associated with another quick moving shortwave aloft that swings through during the day on Tuesday. The precipitation looks fairly short lived, on the order of 6-12 hours. We could see a quick 1-3 inches of snow though given solid lift in the DGZ. Again the only issue with this event is that it is of short duration confined pretty much to the afternoon and early evening. At this point not thinking winter headlines, but we can take a closer look after the current event is over. - Model disparity much of the remainder of the forecast - The GFS has a shortwave sliding through on Wednesday night bringing some precipitation to the area, while the ECWMF does not. We have some small pops in the south at this point on the order of 20 pct. Beyond that, we are in zonal or southwest flow as we head into the weekend. The main item of concern is the chance for a deep low swinging through the Great Lakes over the weekend. There is not model consistency here with the GFS showing a deep low moving into the Great Lakes and the ECWMF putting a low much further to the south. The main point here is that there is very low confidence in the track of this system. The upper pattern evolution is very complex with shortwaves diving into the backside of a Western U.S. trough. The trough then moves into the plains with some phasing trying to take place. Trying to nail down those type of details 6 days out is very difficult. Bottom line we will be watching how the models evolve over the coming days, but way to early to say whether or not we will see a storm in the Great Lakes next weekend.
Category: Michigan Weather Forecast
Getting pretty foggy out there ..
Here too. Getting foggier by the minute.
European Model shows 6 to 10 inches of snow for west Michigan this coming weekend winter storm watch clould it be??? Stay tuned..
InDY
That’s what I like to hear! Bring it on and let the rock n roll party begin! Let the good times roll!
More accumulating snow on tap tomorrow and we have had at least 5 WWA’s so far! Wow and incredible!
Very Slushy driveway. Got the cardio and the weights in for today. LOL!!! The thunder was something I was not expecting in the middle of the night and it was not a low rumble.
Raining now and the snow is melting quickly. The shovel and snow blower remain dormant.
Best kind of snow to have. Get an inch or so, then wash it all away with the rain. Haven’t even had to plow my business parking lot yet and it’s the end of December. Glad I went with the pay per plow instead of the monthly rate!
No kidding! It’s a gamble, but it looks it’s paid off so far.
This will end up costing you money, because once winter hits you need your parking plowed at least 2 or 4 times per week! We will be getting hammered over the next 2.5 months!
This “winter event” did nothing more than make that first morning back to work a real headache.The wife said that the commute to Big rapids this a.m. was treacherous. If you want real winter, check out NE Minnesota. That’s where it’s at baby….
Frist off yes it did indeed snow here last night. And there is 1.8″ of wet snow on the ground here. At this time it is 32 with light freezing drizzle or mist falling. There seems to be a big disparately on any potential snow event next weekend. So we shall see. But keep in mind the system very well could go to the south of us here.
Slim
The last big storm they talked about a week out ended up hitting the UP. As you say, it bears watching but no one knows precisely it’s path at this point.
We have between 1-1.5” on the ground this morning. 34 now with forecasted in the 40s. I can’t remember a winter when I did NOT use a shovel in December. Perhaps this will be the year.
No doubt that any snowstorm potential more then a few days out is simply that – potential, maybe, possibility, etc. Everyone will know when the storm will be hitting for sure, when you see an actual snowfall forecast from the RDB model! Then you can take it to the bank and make your plans accordingly! Happy snowstorms for the New Year! Let’s see the polar vortex!
Let it snow let it snow let it snow ….InDY
Sit down jiust measured 3.2 inches of new snow on the ground out in my hood that givese InDY 20 inches of snow for the young Wimter season talk about loving long winters lol…I only have 70 more inches to go and InDY will call a perfect Winter DDDDDD… How could it be ???? InDY
Sounds good and things are starting to rev up! I love long winters and the snow just keeps coming! Incredible!
Since November we have had snow who new??? Love long winters ….INDY
Started early and no sign of letting up!
BREAKING WEATHER ALERT>>>>>>>>get ready, next week we will be transitioning to a wintry pattern! The pattern will turn colder and snowier, so the real fun is about to begin! Other BREAKING NEWS is the RDB model which is the most accurate model on the market just received a software update, so expect unrivaled snowfall forecasts this winter! Rock n roll will never die! I love it!
We got hammered with snow last night during yet another WWA! 2 inches of heavy snow on the ground, more snow on the way for tomorrow and then a possible storm this weekend! WOW!