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Last Week Of September

We reached 82° yesterday and I have to say this will probably be our last 80 day of the year.  We currently have 65° at 5 am this morning for a very warm Autumn morning.  Below are the area temps for yesterday:

 

GRR : Grand Rapids ASOS    :  81 /  58 /     
LAN : Lansing ASOS         :  80 /  58 /   
MKG : Muskegon ASOS        :  72 /  66 /  
BIV : Holland ASOS         :  76 /  57 /  
AZO : Kalamazoo ASOS       :  82 /  60 /  
BTL : Battle Creek ASOS    :  81 /  59 /  
JXN : Jackson ASOS         :  81 /  54 /  

 


The stretch of warm weather is coming to an end. Sunday will be a transitional day as a low pressure and a sharp cold front move into Lower Michigan, bringing rain and lower temperatures by Monday.  This, after all, is fall so we should have expectations of cooler temps moving in this time of year.   Our last rainfall was on the 13th.

Today won’t be a washout as temps will still climb into the low to mid-70s in SW and SE Michigan.  We will have more in the way of clouds but the rain should hold off until after dark.


Regional Forecasts

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SW

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SE

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North

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U.P.

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Forecast Discussion

-- Much needed rain arrives later today and lingers into Monday --

The extended stretch of warm and mainly dry weather will come to an
end today as a cold front passes through the area. The front
currently extends from the Western U.P. and down through Wisconsin.
The only rain with the front is in the U.P., where the nose of the
low level jet supports some showers. The front itself is expected to
come through dry through mid-afternoon, with little to no upper
support right with it.

This will change however late this afternoon and this evening from
west to east. This occurs as the upper trough out to our west digs
significantly, inducing much stronger forcing over the state. Once
the rain showers get going, it will be tough to kick them out until
Monday evening when the strengthening short wave pushes east of the
area. Rainfall is not a concern as this does not look to be a heavy
rain producer with a lack of rich moisture, and considering the
antecedent conditions are quite dry.

Most of the precipitation will be just rain/rain showers. There is a
small window of opportunity for a rumble of thunder this afternoon
across the SE portion of the area. Sfc based and elevated lifted
indices are slightly negative through about 00z tonight, latest to
the east. Most of this time, we will be precipitation free, waiting
for the trough to get close enough.

-- Colder air and more showers arrive Wednesday --

Tuesday will be a relative lull in the more organized rain as
compared to tonight and Monday. A chance for lighter showers will
remain as the long wave trough with embedded short waves will be
over the region.

A better chance of rain showers will arrive for Wednesday. Guidance
has been fairly consistent in bringing additional jet energy/an
organized short wave from the backside of the long wave trough. This
will bring even colder temps aloft over the area as the northern
branch of the upper jet sinks south of the state. Showers will
accompany this wave, and then the lakes will likely come into play
with the over lake instability that will develop.

-- Cool and unsettled weather persists through next weekend --

Once the long wave trough sets up on Wed, we will likely remain
under it until around the Saturday time frame when the models lift
the upper jet to our NE briefly.

This weather pattern will feature occasional short waves moving
through, touching off showers potentially at any time depending on
the timing. Day time will be favored with the diurnal boost to the
instability with the cold pool aloft overhead. In addition, the over
lake instability will likely produce some lake effect rain showers
and add a component to the synoptic showers with over lake
instability expected to at least be in the mid teens C. This should
diminish a bit by later Saturday at this point.
newest oldest
Slim

Yesterdays official high of 81 tied 1901 with the 9th warmest high of any September 26th here at Grand Rapids. however it was well short of the record high of 92 set in 2017. The official overnight low of 65 so far would tie the record warmest minimum for any September 27th if it can stay that warm until midnight. (very low chance)
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

That week in 2017 was ridiculous. We were at Silver Lake for our anniversary and it was near 100 degrees every day we were there. It was so hot in the dunes you couldn’t stand it without jumping in the water.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

The pending “la nina” is looking good and we should see plenty of cold and snow this winter. Stay tuned for the official RDB seasonal snowfall forecast! Rock n Roll baby!

INDY
INDY

Yes we are ready 😊 love the RDB 90% right all the time a warm weather fanatics downer lol…INDY

INDY
INDY

We sat outside on the deck till about 5 this morning drinking Sprites listening to winds blow all night probably one the nicest nights this year no bugs warm temps and windy conditions we loved it ….I said to my buddy this probably will be the last nice Summerish night till next June enjoy it we sure did ….Pure Michigan baby!! Have a nice Sunday ….INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You know it and keep the facts coming!

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

Very mild 67 degrees this morning, almost 20 degrees above our average low of 48 degrees. Great beach weather the past couple days, but I had to work all weekend in the heat. Mid 90’s at work, yuck, hope it actually cools down this time.

Slim

Yesterdays high of 81 tied 1901 for the 9th warmest high on September 26th. That just shows how fast it cools off here in September.
Slim