Last of the Arctic Air

Other than isolated flurries to start the day, it will be a dry day for most locations. High temperatures will end up in the mid-20s to upper-20s as we creep out of the colder air. The southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph. The arctic airmass which has prevailed over the past week will move away from the region so it will not be as cold for the remainder of the week.

The days ahead will bring a noticeable warm-up with temperatures trending into the low to mid-40s. Rain is possible on Thursday, then periods of rain are likely during the Friday–Saturday timeframe.  Any snow we have on the ground will take a noticeable hit.  Above-normal temperatures may last through mid-January.

Yesterday we reached 26° with about an hour of partly sunny skies, the morning low was 13°.

Grand Rapids Forecast

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Lansing Forecast

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Kalamazoo Forecast

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Forecast Discussion

- Quiet Through Wednesday, Some Peeks of Sun Possible

Residual flurries and light snow showers will come to an end today
as mid level heights rise, advection of warmer 850 mb temperatures
begins, and sfc winds turn S/SW. Some breaks in the clouds are
possible especially near and south of I-96 based on our national
blend of models as well as ECE guidance. You can also see this via
the RAP13 RH layer analysis, with low level moisture (ie. 925 mb RH)
dropping significantly from south to north today and tomorrow. So
far this month, Grand Rapids has averaged 11% of possible sunshine.

- Warmer Temperatures, Fog, and Light Rain Moving Our Way

Excellent prognosis from the previous discussion to include fog
potential beginning Thursday. We`ll see higher dew points (40F-45F)
advect in on Thursday overtop a snowpack that is in place across the
region (deepest near/west of US 131). Model guidance supports a
period of light rain or drizzle Thursday into early Friday ahead of
a cold front that will likely move through Friday morning. This
period of warmer surface temperatures and dew points in the 40s
combined with some light rain and drizzle should be conducive to fog
development. The GFS is showing potential for dense fog as well.

Also, as previously mentioned, this setup could cause a problem on
roadways. Current pavement temperatures are in the teens to low 20s.
These likely won`t change much today given highs in the 20s away
from the immediate lakeshore. Pavement temperatures should warm on
Wednesday with highs above freezing, but it is questionable whether
pavement temperatures get above freezing before fog and light rain
move in Thursday. As a result, especially secondary and rural roads
could have some slippery travel Thursday.

Model spread exists from Friday into Sunday with regard to
precipitation chances and even, to some extent, precipitation type.
However, the general expectation is that the cold front that moves
through Friday will likely stall out over southeast Lower MI or just
south of our border. This occurs as another 500 mb shortwave will
approach the state. The ECMWF favors a LLJ to be pointed more toward
Ohio and southeast Lower MI than our area, whereas the GFS is
further west (and wetter) and the GEM is showing very little
precipitation at all. You can see the spread in the ECE/GEFS/CMC
ensemble solutions as well, indicating some uncertainty in where the
front stalls and heavier precipitation sets up Saturday into Sunday.
Given the superior performance of the ECE this winter, would tend to
favor the more progressively eastward moving front and higher rain
chances across southeast Lower MI over the weekend. There is
potential for mixed precipitation (rain, snow, and freezing rain at
times) to occur across mainly central Lower MI especially at night
with this synoptic setup.

With regard to significant rainfall (1" or more) through the
weekend, odds are decreasing. The ECE shows less than a 20% chance
as does the CMC. The GEFS is higher at 30% but is clearly trending
toward the ECE and CMC. My observation is that the ECE typically
leads the pack in showing correct trends.

Good model consensus exists with regard to a more potent upper
wave moving through by next Monday or Tuesday with increased odds
for surface low development and another round of rain (most
likely) as low level warm advection intensifies.