Last of October – NOAA Winter Forecast

Yesterday we had a high temperature of 58° with a morning low of 32°.  Last week we had .47 of an inch of rain which brings our total for the month to 1.66 inches and 3.48 inches for the fall months.

We start this week with a morning low of 29°, close to hard freeze criteria. A hard freeze typically occurs when the temperature reaches 28° or lower for at least an hour (or more). This usually means that most seasonal vegetation will be destroyed. In addition, there is a possibility of damage to unprotected outdoor plumbing, undrained sprinkler systems, etc.

We begin this week with a typical fall day with temperatures in the mid-50s.  We then start a warm-up with near or record temperatures in the upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday before going back to reality at the end of the week.

NOAA Winter Forecast

Weather History

1967: The heaviest October snowstorm on record strikes southwest Lower Michigan with widespread amounts greater than 6 inches. A total of 8.4 inches at Grand Rapids is almost double the amount of the next greatest October snowstorm.

On October 27, 2010, a historically deep low-pressure system tracked northeast through Minnesota and into Ontario. A tight pressure gradient over southeast Michigan led to prolonged strong westerly winds, generally in the 45 to 55 mph range, but a few gusts in the 55 to 60 mph range were observed north of M-59, blowing down dozens of trees and tree limbs within most of those counties.

On October 27, 1997, low pressure tracked northeast across Ohio late on the 26th through early morning on the 27th. Rain changed to snow over the Saginaw Valley and Flint area during the evening of the 26th, and snow continued until around daybreak on the 27th. Accumulations were mostly from 3 to 6 inches, with a maximum of 6 inches reported at Saint Charles, in Saginaw County. The combination of the heavy wet snow, and the fact that many trees had not yet lost their leaves, resulted in widespread tree damage and downed powerlines. Around 40,000 homes lost power on the 27th. Measurable snow fell as far south as the northern suburbs of Detroit.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Partly sunny through Monday with seasonable temperatures

On the back side of a departing surface high, low-level flow will
become south-southwesterly and begin to advect warmer air toward
Michigan. But at least through Monday, temperatures won`t be too far
from seasonal norms. Dry weather is likely through sunset Monday.
Patches of altostratus will drift through central Michigan this
morning, and Monday will feature thickening cirrostratus.

- Upper Ridging then Height Falls This Week, Halloween Tricky

The pattern of periodic upper ridging followed by height falls
continues this week with a warm spell Tuesday and Wednesday followed
by cooler weather later in the week.

There are two chances for rain, first with an area of warm advection
and isentropic ascent early Tuesday then again Wednesday night and
Thursday. The trick or treating forecast is indeed tricky. At this
point we have chance POPs for Thursday evening although we may be in
a dry slot in between rain associated with the warm conveyer belt
moving off to the east and developing lake-enhanced rain showers in
the post-frontal cyclonic flow. Surface high builds in with dry and
cool weather for the end of the week.