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Last Nice Day – Weather History

We have a fog advisory for the counties in grey until 10 am this morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of dense morning fog are expected today along with the
possibility of black ice for the morning commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Gusty winds to around 40 mph are expected on Thursday. Some
isolated power outages may result.

A period of mixed lake effect rain and snow showers are expected
from Friday through the weekend and possibly into Monday. Some
slushy accumulations of snow are expected especially on grassy
areas. Travel should not be impacted too much given air
temperatures near or above freezing much of the time. Some
isolated power outages are possible where heavier snow falls on
trees with leaves still on them. Some light accumulations of snow
are expected through the weekend.

We have 27.5° at 5 am this morning.  Yesterday we high a high of 56° and a low of 33°.  If you have any outdoor work to finish today would be the day to do it as it will be downhill from here.

Forecast Discussion

- Dense Fog/Black Ice Potential early this morning

We have gone ahead and issued a Dense Fog Advisory this morning
and mentioned black ice potential within the product. Temperatures
have fallen to the 20s across Central Lower Michigan and around
freezing over the rest of the area. Residual moisture behind the
passage of a cold front yesterday has led to fog formation.
Currently Lansing, and Mason both have 1/4 mile visibilities and
Charlotte and Alma are at 1/2. The advisory is generally for areas
off to the south and east of Grand Rapids in the zone of better
moisture. The nighttime microphysics RGB satellite loop shows the
area of concern the best, with developing/thickening for
especially over Eaton, Ingham, Calhoun and Jackson counties.
Advisory runs through 1000am due to the fact that the lower sun
angle will take a bit longer to lift the fog.

- Fall storm still on track on Thurs with wind/rain

Not much has changed in the model runs tonight versus the last
couple of nights. The plains low deepens fairly rapidly tonight,
reaching 993mb by 12z on Thursday in Northwest Wisconsin. During
the day on Thursday the low deepens further to around 988mb in
Northeast Minnesota. Given a low of that depth in the Great Lakes
we are certainly going to see some wind. We are still expecting
wind gusts to peak around 40 mph, which could result in some
isolated power outages. Nothing widespread expected at this point.
Thinking we should stay below wind advisory criteria at this
point. The windiest places in our area will likely be along the
western extents of Big and Little Sable Point given the strong
south flow and how far these spots stick out into the lake.

The first precipitation with the system will be a glancing blow
tonight of some warm air advection light rain. This will be a
precursor to the heavier rain event that is expected along the
cold front on Thursday. Rain is expected from the midday hours in
the west on Thursday into the evening hours in the east. Neither
the rain tonight or on Thursday are expected to be heavy. No
hydro concerns expected. Instability looks a little better in the
models tonight with 850mb LIs dipping to around 0C at 18z on
Thursday. So, not out of the realm of possibilities that we see an
embedded rumble of thunder on the cold front, but nothing close
to severe due to a lack of MUCAPE.

- Prolonged period of lake effect with some accumulations

We are looking at a taste of winter from Friday right through the
weekend and into Monday. Lake effect precipitation is convection
and with convection we look at 3 main factors... moisture,
instability and lift. All 3 factors are present through the
duration of the four day mentioned above with a couple of periods
of concern (Friday/Friday night and Saturday night/Sunday.

So looking at the ingredients...moisture is deep and prevalent
through the entire period. We like to look at moisture in the
1000-700mb layer, which is about a 10,000 foot deep slab. Most
lake effect occurs below 10,000ft. If we can get RH values in the
layer to above 70 percent we feel we have deep moisture in place.
70 percent RH values are in place all four days.

Instability is also present given a lake surface water temp around
+12C and 850mb air temps that will run between -4C and -7C. This
results in Delta T`s in the upper teens. Upper teens C Delta T`s
are essentially a proxy for steep low level lapse rates, or
significant instability.

The final item is that of lift. We will sit in an upper low/upper
trough environment all four days which provides synoptic scale
lift to the lake boundary layer. When pronounced shortwaves roll
through the area the lake boundary layer lift is enhanced even
more. The two time frames of higher concern are Friday and Friday
night and again on Saturday night / Sunday.

We will see lake effect rain and snow through this entire period,
but the aforementioned two times there should be accumulating
snow for sure. The accumulating snow will likely occur the easiest
in the overnight and morning time frames when the boundary layer
is cooled the most. 2 inch soil temperature here at the office at
this hour is 44F. So there will be a bit of melting from below,
but during the periods of heavier lake effect there will be some
accumulation. We think we are looking at some 1-2 / 1-3 inch
accumulations at times through this event. Not expecting to see
much more than 2-4 inches of slushy accums on grassy areas during
the height of this event. Most locations won`t even see that
much, but we are going to turn the ground white at times for
portions of Central and Western Lower Michigan between Friday
afternoon and Monday. Not expecting big road impacts at all. The
biggest impact will likely be some isolated power outages as the
heavier snow bands accumulate on still leafed out trees in some
areas.

Weather History for SW Michigan

November 7

1877: Record cold freezes Lower Michigan following heavy snowfall on November 5th. At Lansing, the temperature plunges to 4 degrees on the 5th and 6th, and 8 degrees on this day.

November 8

1921: A record early season snowstorm buries Lower Michigan with over a foot of heavy, wet snow in some places. Lansing measures 18.9 inches for its greatest November snowfall on record.

1991: A vast flow of arctic air dominates the Midwest during early November 1991. Several inches of snowfall from the 2nd through the 6th followed by the passage of a cold dome of high pressure that sets record lows of 11 degrees at Lansing and 16 degrees at Grand Rapids on this date.

November 9

1913: A massive storm that became known as The White Hurricane sank numerous ships on the Great Lakes and caused millions of dollars in damage across Michigan. This storm was one of the deadliest and most destructive natural disasters to hit the Great Lakes, killing more than 250 people while wrecking 19 ships and stranding 19 others. The financial loss in vessels alone was nearly five million dollars or about 100 million dollars at current value. Lost cargo, such as coal, iron ore, and grain was estimated at over 68,000 tons.

November 10

1975: A powerful storm brought high winds across Lower Michigan, toppling trees and power lines. A tornado was spun up by the storm, damaging mobile homes and a barn in Allegan County. The Edmund Fitzgerald sank in Lake Superior during the storm, with a crew of 29 men. There were no survivors. The ore carrier left Superior, Wisconsin on November 9 loaded with 26,116 tons of taconite pellets. The cargo was to be delivered to Detroit, but the ship ran into winds of at least 60 mph and high waves and foundered at about 730 pm north of Whitefish Point.

1998: A November storm lashes the Great Lakes with wind gusts up to 90 mph. Over 167,000 homes were without power and cleanup efforts were extensive as many homes and businesses suffered roof and siding damage and thousands of trees were blown down. The high winds literally blew much of the water out of Saginaw Bay, with the water level dropping several feet and large sections of the Bay becoming dry land for a time. A waterspout on Lake Michigan briefly moved inland near Muskegon, but rapidly dissipated and caused no damage.

November 11

1911: A tornado outbreak strikes the Midwest, killing more than a dozen people. Nine people are killed as a violent tornado hits Janesville, Wisconsin. Within an hour, survivors of the storm were digging out in near-blizzard conditions with zero-degree temperatures. In Michigan, a tornado kills two people and injures 21 others as it destroys five factories and 21 homes in the northern part of Owosso in Shiawassee County. Another tornado hits southeast of Battle Creek in Calhoun County, leveling barns and taking the roofs off homes. A tornado near Kingsland in Eaton County kills cattle and horses.

1940: The Armistice Day storm strikes with hurricane-force winds, producing blizzard conditions across Minnesota and mountainous waves on Lake Michigan, where five vessels are lost, claiming 66 lives.

1995: A strong cold front passage is followed by high winds and lake effect snow. From three to seven inches of snow fell across Ottawa and Kent Counties in a six-hour period. The heavy snowfall combined with high winds caused widespread power outages due to tree limbs falling and lines breaking. In South Haven, a garage roof was destroyed by a falling tree. Power outages affected more than 50,000 people.

November 12

1873: Winter arrives early with 5 inches of snow at Lansing, followed by a string of record lows in the single digits, including a 1 degree reading on the morning of the 13th.

November 13

1986: High temperatures are held in the upper teens to lower 20s as arctic air pours into Lower Michigan. The high of 19 degrees at Grand Rapids is a record for the date and the coldest high temperature for so early in the season.

Weather History for SE Michigan

November 7

On November 7, 1991, another stretch of record lows occurred in Detroit from the 7th (20 degrees), the 8th (14 degrees) and the 9th (18 degrees). Saginaw also had a three-day streak from the 7th-9th with 16, 14, and 16 degrees respectively. Flint had a 4-day streak from the 7-10th with temperatures of 17, 12, 14 and 20 degrees respectively.

Also on November 7, 1951, a snowstorm that started on November 6 came to an end across Southeast Michigan. The storm left Saginaw with 12.7 inches of snow, Flint 13.4 inches, and Detroit 5.6 inches. This storm was the 5th heaviest snowstorm in Flint history and the 14th heaviest for Saginaw.

November 8

On November 8, 1931, the temperature rose to a record 72 degrees at Saginaw on the 8th, then on the 9th, the temperature rose to 74 which was the warmest so late in the year for Saginaw

November 9

On November 9, 1913, the Great Lakes was struck by the “White Hurricane.” This November 1913 incredible storm (concentrated on Lake Huron for its death and destruction) was the greatest ever to strike the Great Lakes. No other Great Lakes storm even begins to compare in modern history with its death toll of at least 235 lives and up to forty shipwrecks.

Also, on this date in 1999, a much tamer record was achieved with Detroit having its warmest temperature so late in the season of 75 degrees.

November 10

On November 10, 2020, a streak of record warm conditions came to an end. Detroit and Saginaw saw daily high-temperature records broken four days in a row (Nov. 7 to Nov. 10) while Flint had three daily high-temperature records broken (Nov. 8 to Nov. 10). It was the second warmest first 10 days of November on record for Flint and Saginaw, while it was the fourth warmest for Detroit.

On November 10, 1998, a very intense storm system moved north across the western Great Lakes on the 10th. This storm occurred on the 23rd anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior and was actually very comparable to that storm. High winds occurred in two phases. Winds reached high wind criteria across southeast Michigan early in the afternoon of the 10th, associated with a cold front racing east across the state. A line of showers accompanied the front, locally enhancing wind speeds (see below). Wind speeds increased again in the evening. The highest winds during the entire event occurred within a couple of hours of midnight. Both periods of high winds caused significant damage across the area. In the afternoon, the walls of a church under construction were destroyed in Troy. A warehouse in Flint was deroofed, and a second warehouse roof was damaged. Damage was more widespread with the higher wind speeds that occurred at night. Trees, limbs, and power lines were downed across all of southeast Michigan. In Owosso, a roof under construction collapsed, and a church under construction in Ida (Monroe County) was also damaged. Near Mt. Clemens, a boat rack storing a number boats of collapsed. A 70 mph wind gust was measured at the National Weather Service office in White Lake. The extended period of strong winds caused an interesting phenomena on Saginaw Bay. Southwest gales pushed water out of the bay and into the main body of Lake Huron. The water level on Saginaw Bay bottomed out at an amazing 50 inches below chart datum! Most of Saginaw Bay is quite shallow, and the removal of over 5 feet of water exposed a huge portion of the bay bed; some estimate that up to half of the area of the bay briefly became dry land during the storm!

On November 10, 1975, an infamous intense fall storm centered over the Great Lakes sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. 29 crewmen lost their lives because of this storm.

November 11

On November 11, 2019, a winter storm brought widespread heavy snow to Southeast Michigan. The daily snowfall records were broken at Detroit (8.5 inches) and Flint (8.6 inches). The snow continued into the 12th and the event ended up being the biggest November snowstorm on record at Detroit (9.2 inches over the two days) and the third biggest November snowstorm for Flint (9.0 inches over the two days). Snowfall rates of over 1 inch per hour were observed and areas along the lakeshore in the Thumb measured over a foot of snow.

On November 11, 1933, a snowstorm blanketed all of Southeast Michigan with 3 to 5 inches of snow. Saginaw reported 5.1 inches, Flint had 3.0 inches, and Detroit received 3.9 inches of snow.

November 12

On November 12, 2003, a cold front ahead of a rapidly deepening low-pressure system tracked across the area late in the evening on the 12th. Temperatures soared into the lower 60s during the afternoon hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front produced widespread 60 mph winds or greater, along with the one tornado, rated F1, just west of Akron in Tuscola County.
This same strong low-pressure system then moved across the straits on the evening of the 12th, moving into Ontario overnight as it deepened. The storm produced wind gusts between 50 and 60 MPH across all of Southeast Michigan. In addition, there were even a few wind gusts reported between 60 and 88 mph. The highest wind gust was reported by a spotter in Dexter who recorded an 88 mph gust. An estimated 250,000 customers lost power in southeast Michigan, as widespread trees and power lines were blown down at a cost of about 21 million dollars in damage.

Also on November 12, 1911, a 24-hour temperature range of 49 degrees was recorded. The temperature at midnight was 65 degrees, at 6 am was 30 degrees, at noon was 20 degrees and fell to a low of 16 degrees at 11 pm.

November 13

On November 13, 1920, Wayne County (Northwest Detroit area) received 4-inch diameter hail around 7:20 pm which is one of the largest, if not the largest, ever recorded in Detroit.


 

newest oldest
Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! I love this time of year when the temps go down and the snow chances go up! Bring on a snowstorm!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

It was super foggy when I got up this morning. By 6am, the fog was gone. Lots of frost, though. Another great day today. Leaves are really starting falling now. I’d say that 50% of the leaves are now on the ground.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for the transition to winter! Forget temps in the 60’s and bring on the 30’s with SNOW! Who wouldn’t want snow as we head into the December and the holiday season! I hope we get hammered!

Mookie
Mookie

Tell me the point of unusable snow and mush when Accuweather has 50’s next week? I don’t understand.

Slim

With clear skies and light winds the temperature fell to 27 both here and officially at GRR. Here at my house that is the coldest so far this season. While there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in my area they are falling at a good clip at this time. The departure is now just -0.3 for November at Grand Rapids.
Slim

Mookie
Mookie

Tomorrow will be our 7th straight today in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s been incredibly nice to go along with our 2 week late fall colors.

Slim

Just last year by November 10 Grand Rapids had 8 straight days with highs in the 60’s and 70’s So there now have been two warm to mild starts to November in a row. In the past there have been other years with a week or so of mild weather in November. And of course there have been years with a rather cold period in November.
Slim

Nathan (forest Hills)
Nathan (forest Hills)

If I remember correctly, I think Nov 2014 was the record coldest and Nov 2015 was the record warmest. I definitely find November to be an unpredictable month. This has actually been one of the more normal Novembers so far.

Slim

The record warmest November at Grand Rapids in 1931 with a mean of 47.6 in 2nd place is 2001 with a mean of 46.8 then 2015 with a mean of 45.5 2016 was just behind with a mean of 45.4. On the cold side 1951 was the coldest with a mean of 31.0. 1976 is in 2nd place with a mean of 31.4 then 1995 is in 3rd place with a mean of 32.0. 2014 is in 7th place with a mean of 34.7. 2014 is the snowiest with 31.0″
Slim

Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

Wow interesting, we can definitely get a lot of snow in November if it is cold enough. That’s almost 3 feet!

Sandy (Hudsonville)
Sandy (Hudsonville)

It really has been. Maybe the cold temps and snow won’t be here long. I know the trees are beautiful finally.