Lake Shore Wind Advisory 3/21

Yesterday’s high was 45°, and the low was 26°. Yesterday’s early morning rainfall brought us .28 of an inch. The total for March thus far is 2.48 inches.  Clouds will increase and temperatures will rebound into the 50s today. A windy day will give way to showers overnight with a rain/snow mix early Saturday. Saturday will have clearing skies with gusty winds and colder temperatures. Sunday will have rain and snow later.

Wind Advisory

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM 
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Allegan, Ottawa, Mason, Muskegon, and Oceana Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest wind gusts are expected to
  occur in the western half of each county, beginning late morning
  between Muskegon and Ludington, and ending late afternoon between
  Saugatuck and Grand Haven.

Weather History

1983: Spring starts on a snowy note with record daily snowfall of 6 to 8 inches from Muskegon to Lansing.

2008: A record 6.6 inches of snow fell at Grand Rapids on the first day of Spring. Muskegon had a record 7 inches, while 8 to 14 inches of snow fell south of a line from Holland to Jackson.

On March 21, 2012, high temperatures of 84, 86, and 87 were recorded in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw respectively. All of these temperatures broke the all-time March records for warmth at each location. Saginaw was particularly impressive, shattering its previous all-time March record of 83 by four degrees. Ultimately, one more record-breaking day in Detroit would relegate this day to be its second warmest March day ever recorded. The records for Flint and Saginaw, however, still stand.

Also on March 21, 2008, a winter storm hit the greater Metro Detroit region. While most of the metro area received 3 to 7 inches of snow, a band of 8 to 10 inches fell from Dexter and the Irish Hills across Saline, Tecumseh, Dundee and into Temperance.

Also on March 21, 1913, powerful winds swept across Southeast Michigan as a strong cold front moved across the state. The wind storm was one of the strongest in the local climate record and caused widespread damage, countless injuries, and several fatalities.

According to the historical record, east winds gusting to around 30 mph during the pre-dawn hours turned to the south, allowing the temperature in Detroit to rise to 57 degrees by 9 a.m. With the passage of the cold front, temperatures fell precipitously through the day, reaching a low of 23 degrees by midnight. As the cold air first began spilling into the area, winds initially turned southwesterly and began gusting to over 60 mph between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. The average wind speed during the following hour increased to 71 mph with a peak gust of nearly 80 mph. Shortly thereafter, at 11:15 a.m., a peak wind gust of 86 mph was recorded. Altogether, winds gusted in excess of 70 mph for approximately 3 hours while gusts in excess of 60 mph continued for around 6 hours.

Damage was significant, widespread, and conservatively estimated at $500,000 (equivalent to $11,500,000 in 2012 dollars after adjusting for inflation). Buildings were razed, roofs and chimneys were destroyed, and trees were broken and uprooted. In addition, vehicles were overturned and there were accounts of a delivery wagon having been blown through the window of a restaurant on Lafayette Boulevard. In addition to several fatalities, one of which included a Grand Trunk watchman who was blown in front of a moving train, injuries to pedestrians were numerous and included arm, leg, and skull fractures. The strong winds also caused the Detroit River level to fall so low that the water intakes for manufacturing plants were cut off, resulting in their closure. On the Canadian side, thirteen freight train cars were derailed by large waves.

Forecast Discussion

- Milder and Breezy Friday

A steep pressure gradient will set up over Lower Michigan today with
warm air advection ahead of a cold front passing through tonight. A
narrow low-level jet from the southern Plains will extend into Lower
Michigan from late this morning through evening. 925-850 mb winds
will be southwest 40-50 knots. Mixing potential to 925 mb is fair in
some areas. It will be breezy everywhere, with 30-40 mph gusts
occurring earlier in the day in northwestern areas and later in the
day in southeastern areas. Localized better mixing conditions forced
just downwind of the lake/land interface may support some 45 mph
gusts in portions of the lakeshore counties between Ludington and
Saugatuck, as suggested in the HREF. Away from Lake Michigan, a
somewhat increased potential for field fires this afternoon with the
strong breeze and relative humidity dropping below 40 percent, for
fine fuels (vegetation) that are prone to dry out quicker.

- Rain Showers Turning to Snow Flurries Tonight into Sat Morning

Progressive weather systems continue in this zonal flow pattern, and
the next cold front arriving tonight will bring 850 mb temperatures
up to 14 deg C colder for Saturday. A round of rain showers is
likely tonight, though with totals mostly less than 0.10 inches.
Lake-effect snow flurries may persist into Saturday morning before
midlevel ridging, the surface high, and warmer 850 mb air arrives to
shut it down in the afternoon.

- Rain and Snow Sunday and Monday

After a short lived break in precipitation chances Saturday, we will
see precipitation become likely once again by later Sunday
afternoon. This active northern branch of the jet over the northern
tier of the country will supply yet another stronger upper wave to
approach the area on Sunday. The strength of the upper wave and
associated sfc low, combined with an inflow of moisture from the
Gulf will be responsible for the likely precipitation.

Temperatures will be moderating from the chilly day on Saturday with
the southerly flow ahead of the incoming system. there is good
agreement that at least the southern half of the forecast area will
see rain more likely than snow. The northern half of the forecast
area will see cold enough air holding on for the precipitation to
initially fall as snow, especially in the higher terrain of Central
Lower. Warmer air advecting in will likely change most precipitation
over to rain, even if it is a short period before the front comes
through.

The cold front looks to pass through Sunday evening, which will
allow the colder air moving in to change any rain back over to snow.
The rain to snow showers will hold on through Monday as the upper
cold pool and low/trough remain right over the area. The
instability, combined with short wave activity, and some help from
the Lake will all help to keep precipitation chances going through
Monday, before tapering off Monday night.

- Below Average Temperatures Continue Tuesday-Wednesday

The stronger upper low for Sunday and Monday is expected to be
pushed out by Tuesday as a fairly faster upper flow from the WNW
persists into the mid-week time frame. The upper jet core is
forecast to be south of the area through Wednesday. This will
continue to feed colder than average air over the area, and
potentially bring weaker short waves through with a chance of
precipitation.

850 mb temperatures will drop to as low as -9 to -11C in the Tuesday
and Wednesday time frame. This would be marginally cold enough for a
little bit of lake effect.

We will see this long wave trough and cyclonic flow aloft shift east
of the area by Thursday. This will shove the colder air aloft out of
the area, and allow for a moderation in temperatures. The upper
ridge building in should allow for a dry period for the area before
the next storm system approaches beyond this forecast period.

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