July Summary

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 3

For me yesterday was the perfect day to be outside to enjoy the weather.  Our high in Otsego was 74° and the low was 59°.  Currently, we have 52° at 6 am.  We lose 2 minutes and 11 seconds of daylight today compared to yesterday but we still have 14 hours and 25 minutes of daylight to enjoy.

July was highlighted by a near-normal average temperature. Grand Rapids did not reach 90 degrees during the month for the first time since 2014.

The weather looks pretty quiet this week, It will start out cool and comfortable for August, then temperatures and humidity increase for the latter part of the week. We may see a few sprinkles today, then spotty showers, or a thunderstorm tomorrow though chances are low in SW Michigan, looks to be in the 20 percentile range at this time.

Forecast Discussion

- Comfortable temperatures today and Tuesday

Temperatures will remain cool for early August under broad upper
troughing. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s again today and
the upper 70s to near 80 Tuesday. Dewpoints in the 50s, to maybe
touching 60, will keep humidity comfortable.

- Few small chances for rain this week

Overall, this week looks really quiet weather-wise. Shortwave trough
will slowly drop through Michigan late today through Tuesday. Vort
max, and associated stronger forcing, with this feature will dive
mostly west and then south of the area however, and there will not
be much moisture to work with. Most model forecast soundings show
convective depths only reaching a few thousand feet, but the NAM3km
shows almost 6 kft for GRR. A few hi-res models like the NAMnest and
ARW are also showing a few light showers across the area in
reflectivity progs. Think the potential is low, but we may see a few
sprinkles or even a quick shower today. Slightly cooler air aloft on
the north side of the wave Tuesday will allow lapse rates to steepen
a little compared to today. Models do build a little bit of CAPE
(consensus around 500-1000 j/kg), mainly to the north and east of
Grand Rapids by Tuesday afternoon, and we may see a few showers or
even a thunderstorm.

Models bring a few more shortwave troughs through the region, one on
Friday and then another over the weekend, although model timing
varies a bit with the weekend trough. For now the forecast only
carries low chance pops until we see something more concrete to
latch on to.

- Warm and humid next weekend

Temperatures will steadily climb through the second half of the
week. Ensemble forecasts from both the GFS and Euro show strong
support for highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of West
Michigan over the weekend, with quite a few ensemble members putting
GRR at 90. This is all dependent on how convection and associated
cloud cover plays out, however. If forecast highs in the mid and
upper 80s pan out, dewpoints rising well into the 60s would send
heat index values solidly into the 90s. The heat and humidity look
to continue into early next week.

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We are back home after a short trip up to Linwood (Bay City) There was a short but heavy thunderstorm around 1 PM before the storm it was sunny with temperatures around 70 but after the storm the temperatures stayed in the mid 60’s with a brisk NE wind. Here at my house at this time it is partly cloudy and a comfortable 72.


Isn’t this Fall weather great let’s keep it going through August I love short Summers!! INDY


A little reprieve but some more hot and muggy air is on the way!