For me yesterday was the perfect day to be outside to enjoy the weather. Our high in Otsego was 74° and the low was 59°. Currently, we have 52° at 6 am. We lose 2 minutes and 11 seconds of daylight today compared to yesterday but we still have 14 hours and 25 minutes of daylight to enjoy.
The weather looks pretty quiet this week, It will start out cool and comfortable for August, then temperatures and humidity increase for the latter part of the week. We may see a few sprinkles today, then spotty showers, or a thunderstorm tomorrow though chances are low in SW Michigan, looks to be in the 20 percentile range at this time.
- Comfortable temperatures today and Tuesday Temperatures will remain cool for early August under broad upper troughing. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s again today and the upper 70s to near 80 Tuesday. Dewpoints in the 50s, to maybe touching 60, will keep humidity comfortable. - Few small chances for rain this week Overall, this week looks really quiet weather-wise. Shortwave trough will slowly drop through Michigan late today through Tuesday. Vort max, and associated stronger forcing, with this feature will dive mostly west and then south of the area however, and there will not be much moisture to work with. Most model forecast soundings show convective depths only reaching a few thousand feet, but the NAM3km shows almost 6 kft for GRR. A few hi-res models like the NAMnest and ARW are also showing a few light showers across the area in reflectivity progs. Think the potential is low, but we may see a few sprinkles or even a quick shower today. Slightly cooler air aloft on the north side of the wave Tuesday will allow lapse rates to steepen a little compared to today. Models do build a little bit of CAPE (consensus around 500-1000 j/kg), mainly to the north and east of Grand Rapids by Tuesday afternoon, and we may see a few showers or even a thunderstorm. Models bring a few more shortwave troughs through the region, one on Friday and then another over the weekend, although model timing varies a bit with the weekend trough. For now the forecast only carries low chance pops until we see something more concrete to latch on to. - Warm and humid next weekend Temperatures will steadily climb through the second half of the week. Ensemble forecasts from both the GFS and Euro show strong support for highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across much of West Michigan over the weekend, with quite a few ensemble members putting GRR at 90. This is all dependent on how convection and associated cloud cover plays out, however. If forecast highs in the mid and upper 80s pan out, dewpoints rising well into the 60s would send heat index values solidly into the 90s. The heat and humidity look to continue into early next week.