We had a whopping .03 inch of rain between yesterday afternoon and overnight. Our high temperature was 85° with a tropical airmass in place. Dewpoints stayed in the low to mid-70s all day. Today we can expect much of the same with highs in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the 70s. There is a chance of rain and storms developing mainly between I96 and I94 this afternoon.
WPC Forecast
July Summary
July was a little cooler than normal overall, and the coolest since 2015, though not too far from the long-term average with a fair share of warm and humid days. There was a lack of days spent with highs in the 90s; only a few locations made it to 90 on the last day of the month. It was a rainy month for a number of spots, especially in southwest to south-central Michigan.
NWS Forecast
Weather History
1927: Morning low temperatures fall into the lower to mid-40s during one of the coolest Augusts on record. Daily record lows are set at Lansing at 40 degrees, Muskegon at 42, and Grand Rapids at 46.
1964: Lansing hits 100 degrees and Grand Rapids 98 as a brutal four-day heat wave continues.
On August 2, 2006, severe thunderstorms repeatedly moved along the Interstate 69 corridor during the evening hours. The storms produced severe winds that downed many trees. The training nature of the storms produced up to 10 inches of rainfall in northeast Lapeer and southwest Sanilac Counties. The town of Brown City was especially hard hit with flooding. The flood resulted in about 2.5 million dollars in damages.
August 2, 2006 Storm
Also on August 2, 1986, an F1 tornado hit Macomb County and on this date in 1972, an F3 tornado hit Oakland County at 4:23 pm.
Forecast Discussion
- Last day of scattered thunderstorms before a break on Sat Surface and upper-level low centered near the southern Michigan border mid day will continue to support scattered thunderstorms through Friday evening. Storms ongoing early this morning, which have had 2 inch per hour rainfall rates in spots, are expected to diminish in coverage later this morning per the HREF member models, though lingering isolated showers/storms might not completely go away. Plenty of moisture with dew points around 70 will remain south of a Holland to Mount Pleasant line today which is where at least some chance of afternoon storms will be. Will consider scattered storms to be likely near and south of a Kalamazoo to Lansing line this afternoon-evening. MLCAPE is expected to be around 1000-1500 J/kg in southern Michigan this afternoon. Shear will be fairly weak, effectively 20 knots or less, leading to limited organization and brief pulses of better updrafts. A fairly moist mid troposphere should limit DCAPE to around 500 J/kg, but given the steeper low-level lapse rates present during diurnal maximum, isolated bursts of strong wind gusts are possible from precip-loaded downdrafts. Skies clear out from NW to SE tonight. With winds going light, lingering low-level moisture may lead to patchy fog. Saturday will still be warm but with some relief from the humidity, and mostly sunny with diurnal cumulus development. - Rain chances increase late Sunday through Tuesday We continue to watch for the potential of some heavier rains for later Monday night into Tuesday. The latest trend in model guidance is for the cold front expected to drop down from the north to be delayed a bit, and to stall out a little further north. Previous thinking was that a few showers/storms could be possible as early Sunday morning across Central Lower. Now, it looks like the chance doesn`t arrive until later Sunday afternoon with a slower front. This front is expected to remain the focus of rain chances through Tuesday. The slower progression of the front means that it will be passing through the area on Monday now. The front will initially not have a lot of moisture with it, because the moist air mass in place now gets swept out later today. Moisture is forecast to start increasing again with return flow bringing back some moisture return pooling along the front. Seems like scattered showers/storms will be the best bet for now. The best chance of widespread showers/storms will come on Monday night into Tuesday. The models have been persistent in stalling the boundary out, and a fairly healthy wave riding along it. The wave is the result of forcing via mid and upper level jet dynamics interacting with the front. A fairly persistent low level jet will be overriding the front Monday night into Tuesday. Pwats increase to around 2.0 inches. This setup has the potential for training of showers/storms bringing some potentially locally high rainfall in a band across the area. The trend for the axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours. This is due to the front slowing down quicker, and the front and wave a tad further north. Still tough to tell where the heavy rain axis will end up, but there is a good chance it will be somewhere across our forecast area. The rain should come to an end Tuesday afternoon as the wave passes east of the area. - Much cooler and dry for the second half of next week Once the wave with the potentially heavy rain moves through on Tuesday, we will see a Canadian ridge build over the area for the rest of the week. The ridge ends up slowing down as the upper air pattern gets bottlenecked a bit with the potential of a tropical system moving in over the Southern U.S. East Coast. Initially we will see some of the coolest air of recent times advect in from the NE ahead of the sfc ridge. 850 mb temps drop to around 10-11C, supporting highs in the low to mid 70s with a much drier air mass. We will see the air mass recover late next week as the flow becomes from the south and some warmer air moves back in.
What? July was yet another below normal temp month! How is that possible with all the warm weather hype?
At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Westwood to 8 miles west of Jackson. Movement was southwest at 15 mph. HAZARD…Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include… Kalamazoo… Portage… Jackson… Albion… Marshall… Battle Creek… South Haven… Paw Paw… Vicksburg… Hartford… Galesburg… Mattawan… Lawton… Bangor… Decatur… Parchment… Homer… Union City… Schoolcraft… Brooklyn…
Soak up the “Summer”…it is waning 🙁
Yes, in another month we will trending towards cold and snow!
The humidity can leave any time… Ugh!!?
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/68 there was a trace of rainfall. The sun was out 28% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 82/63 the record high of 98 was in 1968 the coolest high of 65 was in 1912 and 1909. The record low of 46 was in 1920 and 1927 the warmest low of 77 was set in 2006. The most rainfall of 1.86” fell in 1928. The overnight low in my yard was 71 there was just a trace of rainfall, at the current time it is cloudy and 74.… Read more »