We have had a very pleasant stretch of weather the past few days. As we continue on through the week we will see our temps increase each day into the low to mid-80s with increasing dewpoints by this weekend.
Today skies will be partly cloudy with more in the way of clouds expected inland, as compared to the mainly sunny skies over the Lake Michigan beaches. It will be a bit hazy today as smoke remains in place aloft from western U.S. and Canadian wildfires. We cannot rule out a small chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening hours. Chances for rain are around 15% to 20% so most areas will remain dry. Highs today will top out around 80 with light winds.
As we move into next week we should see above-normal temps and rainfall which could continue on through at least mid-month. With the heat and humidity in place, our weather pattern may be a bit more active.
- Isolated showers and storms possible today Cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening on and near the lake breeze front. Models indicate the lake breeze front will stretch from the northeast corner of the forecast area up near Clare southwest to near Benton Harbor. If dew point nose up towards 60F pooled along the lake breeze we may be able to generate MUCAPE values around 1,000 J/KG. Wind fields are very weak aloft, so nothing close to severe is anticipated, but some moderate rain and a few lightning strikes are possible. Activity will fade after sunset. - Dry tonight through Thursday A very dry profile can be see in BUFKIT overviews between tonight and the end of the day on Thursday. High pressure will be in control of our weather both at the surface and aloft. High confidence in dry conditions during this time frame. Afternoon high temperatures will nudge back into the 80s for both Wednesday and Thursday. - Precipitation chances increase late week into the weekend Behind the departing high, southerly flow takes hold for Thursday night into the end of the week. A notable increase in 850mb dew points occurs Thursday night which will mark the warm front aloft moving back in, especially late at night and into Friday morning. Hard not to believe we will see some precipitation blossom Thursday night upstream and try to move in. The ECMWF has a LLJ axis pushing into our area at the same time which lends credence to the chance of precipitation Thursday night. Chances for showers and storms should continue Friday and through the weekend with a stationary front nearby early in the weekend which transitions into a warm front later in the weekend. Aloft, the best chances for upper support during the entire period are Thursday night into Friday (shortwave trough) and Sunday into Sunday night (another shortwave trough). Better moisture and instability will be in place with the Sunday activity. ECMWF has a 35 knot low level jet Sunday evening which could be an active period. - Warming trend weekend into next week Much of this week will see highs in the 80s so fairly typical summer time weather is expected. As we head into the weekend and early next week 850mb temperatures rise into the teens C and even near and above 20C. So, we could be looking at high temperatures moving back to near or above 90F.