Increasing Clouds Today – 4/4

We should see another dry day today, with increasing clouds and rain chances this evening and overnight. Today’s highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s, with lows tonight in the mid-30s to low 40s.  Yesterday our high was 62° and the low was 37°.

Weather History

2003: A devastating ice storm strikes central Lower Michigan. Heavy rain from thunderstorms falls into a layer of cold air near the ground and freezes on contact, creating sheaths of ice up to 3 inches thick that bring down thousands of tree limbs. It was estimated that 450,000 homes and businesses lost power during the storm and that nearly 50,000 people were without power for a week as persistent cold temperatures kept the heavy ice on the trees for 4 days after the storm. Crews came from four different states to help local utility companies restore power.

On April 4, 2003, a severe two-day ice storm ended over southeast Michigan. The storm was responsible for up to an inch of accumulated ice in Oakland County, which caused 500,000 people to be without power and $50 million in damage!

Forecast Discussion

- Showers return this evening into Saturday

Fairly consistent forecast, though partly due to the stationary
high situated over the southeast. That will keep the ribbon of
moisture through the central US.

 There is some model differentiation how far north the best QPF
reaches. While most of the region should receive some rainfall,
the best moisture will be south of Michigan. that said, NAEFS mean
Pwats are one inch to 1.25 inches along and south of the I-94
corridor. So expect the heaviest rainfall to be there. Currently
half around a half on inch of QPF, though locally heavier amounts
are possible.

While rainfall could begin late this afternoon, early this evening,
the heaviest showers will be tonight into early Saturday morning.
The deep upper level low moving through the southeast and through
Texas will keep moisture advection through Saturday into Sunday.
However, as the low moves eastward, so will the moisture, which
will keep the rainfall to the southeast.

- Cold air returns Sunday through the first half of next week

 Cold dry air will begin to move in Saturday night into Sunday.
due to a strong upper level low moving through southern Canada.
That upper level wave will dominate the pattern over Michigan
through the first half of the upcoming week.
 850mb temps drop to -8C Sunday to -12C Monday night. This will
drop temps 12 degrees below normal.
 The cold air advection will couple with the trough, though there
is some timing differences. If the trough comes early enough,
there could be a decent potential for snow across the Lower
peninsula Monday, especially along and north of US 10.

That clipper will keep cold air over the region through Tuesday.
Warm air advection will then be on the horizon though the latter
half of the week with another round of showers possible. However,
there is low confidence on timing.

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